Oscars checklist 2020: The snubs and surprises

The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier today. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In 2 short film categories this year, there were 2 movies nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

(This data was originally downloaded from GoldDerby on January 1 - it’s interesting to see how quickly things can change!)


Shortcuts


Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM DEL NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story - 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite - 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell - 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory - 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out - 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart - 7 0 22/1
8 1917 - 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name - 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell - 1 0 100/1
11 Us - 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Not predicted, but nominated: Memorable.

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Not predicted, but nominated: In the Absence.

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Oscars checklist 2020: The possible nominees

Like the last 3 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible in advance (thank you, AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited!).

In a change from past years, I didn’t use any math to calculate the most likely nominees. Instead, I just downloaded GoldDerby’s list of movies with a chance of being nominated in any category, removed all duplicates, and sorted it by highest category. I felt this gave me a better list from which to work, starting with the movies that are widely acclaimed and have a chance at Best Picture, and ending with movies that may only be nominated in technical categories.

Altogether, this gave me a list of 72 possible movies. Hopefully, this will be the second year in a row that I successfully complete the Oscars Death Race!


Shortcuts


Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Jan 1.

Like the last 3 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM DEL NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story - 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite - 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell - 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory - 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out - 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart - 7 0 22/1
8 1917 - 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name - 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell - 1 0 100/1
11 Us - 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Final List

This list includes all feature-length films (no shorts). Altogether, there are 72 unique films that may be nominated for an Oscar.

# Film Highest Category Total Categories
1. The Irishman Best Picture 13
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Picture 12
3. Parasite Best Picture 12
4. Marriage Story Best Picture 8
5. 1917 Best Picture 11
6. Jojo Rabbit Best Picture 7
7. Little Women Best Picture 12
8. Joker Best Picture 12
9. Ford v Ferrari Best Picture 8
10. Bombshell Best Picture 10
11. The Farewell Best Picture 5
12. The Two Popes Best Picture 8
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Best Picture 3
14. Avengers: Endgame Best Picture 8
15. Pain and Glory Best Picture 8
16. Knives Out Best Picture 3
17. Dolemite Is My Name Best Picture 8
18. Hustlers Best Picture 3
19. Booksmart Best Picture 2
20. Rocketman Best Picture 7
21. The Report Best Picture 2
22. The Lighthouse Best Picture 3
23. Judy Best Actress 4
24. Harriet Best Actress 2
25. Us Best Actress 3
26. Clemency Best Actress 1
27. Late Night Best Actress 1
28. Uncut Gems Best Actor 2
29. Richard Jewell Best Supporting Actress 1
30. Waves Best Supporting Actor 1
31. Just Mercy Best Supporting Actor 2
32. Honey Boy Best Supporting Actor 1
33. Toy Story 4 Best Adapted Screenplay 3
34. A Hidden Life Best Cinematography 1
35. Ad Astra Best Cinematography 4
36. Portrait of a Lady on Fire Best Cinematography 1
37. Les Miserables Best International Film 1
38. Atlantics Best International Film 1
39. Honeyland Best International Film 2
40. The Painted Bird Best International Film 1
41. Beanpole Best International Film 1
42. Corpus Christi Best International Film 1
43. Frozen II Best Animated Feature 3
44. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Best Animated Feature 1
45. Missing Link Best Animated Feature 1
46. I Lost My Body Best Animated Feature 1
47. Abominable Best Animated Feature 1
48. Klaus Best Animated Feature 1
49. Spies in Disguise Best Animated Feature 1
50. Weathering with You Best Animated Feature 1
51. Apollo 11 Best Documentary Feature 1
52. American Factory Best Documentary Feature 1
53. For Sama Best Documentary Feature 1
54. The Cave Best Documentary Feature 1
55. One Child Nation Best Documentary Feature 1
56. Maiden Best Documentary Feature 1
57. The Biggest Little Farm Best Documentary Feature 1
58. The Edge of Democracy Best Documentary Feature 1
59. Knock Down the House Best Documentary Feature 1
60. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Best Visual Effects 4
61. The Lion King Best Visual Effects 2
62. Alita: Battle Angel Best Visual Effects 1
63. Captain Marvel Best Visual Effects 1
64. Cats Best Visual Effects 1
65. Gemini Man Best Visual Effects 1
66. Downton Abbey Best Production Design 3
67. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1
68. Motherless Brooklyn Best Score 2
69. Wild Rose Best Song 1
70. Aladdin Best Song 1
71. Breakthrough Best Song 1
72. The Black Godfather Best Song 1
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2019: The actual nominees (52 movies!)

Now that we know all the nominations, it’s time to put together the list of all movies. Instead of just sorting by number of nominations, I like to group them by their “highest” nominated category. This helps me prioritize as I’m trying to complete the Oscars Death Race (watching all movies in all categories!) each year.

If it’s helpful, I’ve also made a Letterboxd list of these movies:


The big list

Highest Nominated Category # Movie Nominations
Picture 1. Roma 10 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 2. The Favourite 10 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design)
Picture 3. A Star Is Born 8 (Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Song, Sound Mixing)
Picture 4. Vice 8 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Picture 5. Black Panther 7 (Picture, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 6. BlacKkKlansman 6 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score)
Picture 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 5 (Picture, Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 8. Green Book 5 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing)
Directing 9. Cold War 3 (Director, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography)
Acting 10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 3 (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
Acting 11. If Beale Street Could Talk 3 (Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score)
Acting 12. At Eternity’s Gate 1 (Actor)
Acting 13. The Wife 1 (Actress)
Screenplay 14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Song)
Screenplay 15. First Reformed 1 (Original Screenplay)
Foreign Language 16. Never Look Away 2 (Foreign Language Film, Cinematography)
Foreign Language 17. Capernaum 1 (Foreign Language Film)
Foreign Language 18. Shoplifters 1 (Foreign Language Film)
Animated 19. Isle of Dogs 2 (Animated Feature, Score)
Animated 20. Incredibles 2 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 21. Mirai 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 22. Ralph Breaks the Internet 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 23. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 1 (Animated Feature)
Documentary 24. RBG 2 (Documentary Feature, Song)
Documentary 25. Free Solo 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 26. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 27. Minding the Gap 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 28. Of Fathers and Sons 1 (Documentary Feature)
Technical 29. First Man 4 (Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
Technical 30. Mary Poppins Returns 4 (Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Score)
Technical 31. Mary Queen of Scots 2 (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Technical 32. A Quiet Place 1 (Sound Editing)
Technical 33. Avengers: Infinity War 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 34. Border 1 (Makeup & Hairstyling)
Technical 35. Christopher Robin 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 36. Ready Player One 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 37. Solo: A Star Wars Story 1 (Visual Effects)
Shorts 38. Detainment 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 39. Fauve 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 40. Marguerite 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 41. Mother 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 42. Skin 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 43. Animal Behaviour 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 44. Bao 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 45. Late Afternoon 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 46. One Small Step 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 47. Weekends 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 48. A Night at the Garden 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 49. Black Sheep 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 50. End Game 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 51. Lifeboat 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 52. Period. End of Sentence. 1 (Documentary Short)
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2019: The snubs and surprises

The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier this week. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In eight (!) categories this year, there were movies or people nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

Remember, this data was originally compiled a month before the nominations were announced - a lot can change in that time!


Shortcuts


Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 30 21 13/2 13.33
2 Roma 30 3 15/2 11.76
3 Green Book 30 5 15/2 11.76
4 The Favourite 29 0 17/2 10.53
5 Black Panther 27 1 10/1 9.09
6 If Beale Street Could Talk 28 0 21/2 8.70
7 BlacKkKlansman 26 0 11/1 8.33
8 Vice 27 0 23/2 8.00
9 First Man 21 0 18/1 5.26
10 Mary Poppins Returns 17 0 22/1 4.35
11 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7 0 52/1 1.89
12 First Reformed 4 0 75/1 1.32
13 A Quiet Place 4 0 92/1 1.08
14 Crazy Rich Asians 4 0 95/1 1.04
15 Widows 3 0 100/1 0.99
16 Eighth Grade 4 0 100/1 0.99
17 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 100/1 0.99
18 The Rider 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 Beautiful Boy 1 0 100/1 0.99
20 Leave No Trace 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) 30 27 16/5 23.81
2 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 2 9/2 18.18
3 BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) 23 1 6/1 14.29
4 The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) 21 0 13/2 13.33
5 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 16 0 9/1 10.00
6 Green Book (Peter Farrelly) 9 0 16/1 5.88
7 First Man (Damien Chazelle) 8 0 20/1 4.76
8 Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) 5 0 30/1 3.23
9 Vice (Adam McKay) 5 0 33/1 2.94
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) 28 16 19/5 20.83
2 The Favourite (Olivia Colman) 30 6 39/10 20.41
3 The Wife (Glenn Close) 28 6 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) 17 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) 10 0 15/1 6.25
7 Widows (Viola Davis) 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Hereditary (Toni Collette) 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Cold War (Joanna Kulig) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 15 19/5 20.83
2 Vice (Christian Bale) 29 7 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) 29 5 4/1 20.00
4 Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) 21 1 13/2 13.33
6 BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) 8 0 20/1 4.76
7 At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe) 5 0 33/1 2.94
8 First Man (Ryan Gosling) 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) 29 21 7/2 22.22
2 Vice (Amy Adams) 26 7 9/2 18.18
3 The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) 27 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Favourite (Emma Stone) 26 1 5/1 16.67
5 First Man (Claire Foy) 19 0 15/2 11.76
6 Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) 6 0 28/1 3.45
7 Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) 5 1 30/1 3.23
8 Roma (Marina de Tavira) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) 2 0 82/1 1.20
12 Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Green Book (Linda Cardellini) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 What They Had (Blythe Danner) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Green Book (Mahershala Ali) 30 16 7/2 22.22
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) 30 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) 27 3 9/2 18.18
4 Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) 23 4 11/2 15.38
5 BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) 16 1 9/1 10.00
6 Vice (Sam Rockwell) 9 0 18/1 5.26
7 Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) 7 1 22/1 4.35
8 Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Vice (Steve Carell) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 29 15 37/10 21.28
2 Roma 29 8 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book 26 4 5/1 16.67
4 First Reformed 23 2 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 20 0 7/1 12.50
6 Eighth Grade 15 1 19/2 9.52
7 A Quiet Place 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Sorry to Bother You 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Capernaum 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Private Life 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 BlacKkKlansman 27 20 19/5 20.83
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 29 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born 28 2 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 28 1 9/2 18.18
5 First Man 10 0 15/1 6.25
6 Leave No Trace 7 0 22/1 4.35
7 Black Panther 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Widows 4 0 40/1 2.44
9 The Death of Stalin 4 0 40/1 2.44
10 Beautiful Boy 3 2 44/1 2.22
11 Crazy Rich Asians 3 0 54/1 1.82
12 Wildlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 29 27 16/5 23.81
2 The Favourite 26 1 5/1 16.67
3 First Man 25 1 5/1 16.67
4 If Beale Street Could Talk 22 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Black Panther 12 0 12/1 7.69
7 Cold War 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Rider 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Widows 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Private War 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Never Look Away.

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 26 11 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 22 12 9/2 18.18
3 A Star Is Born 21 2 11/2 15.38
4 The Favourite 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 13 0 21/2 8.70
6 Widows 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Black Panther 9 2 14/1 6.67
8 Green Book 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 22 July 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 BlacKkKlansman 2 0 70/1 1.41
11 Destroyer 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Quiet Place 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 If Beale Street Could Talk 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 28 17 17/5 22.73
2 Black Panther 28 9 37/10 21.28
3 Mary Poppins Returns 27 1 9/2 18.18
4 Mary Queen of Scots 26 1 9/2 18.18
5 Colette 7 0 20/1 4.76
6 Crazy Rich Asians 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Fantastic Beasts 2 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 A Star Is Born 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 50/1 1.96
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Suspiria 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Vice 9 8 31/20 39.22
2 Black Panther 6 2 4/1 20.00
3 Border 4 0 17/2 10.53
4 Suspiria 3 0 11/1 8.33
5 Stan and Ollie 3 0 11/1 8.33
6 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 23/2 8.00
7 Bohemian Rhapsody 2 0 18/1 5.26

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 28 15 17/5 22.73
2 The Favourite 27 11 37/10 21.28
3 First Man 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 12 0 23/2 8.00
6 Roma 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 Crazy Rich Asians 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Isle of Dogs 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Fantastic Beasts 2 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Shallow) 12 12 16/5 23.81
2 Black Panther (All the Stars) 11 0 9/2 18.18
3 RBG (I’ll Fight) 10 0 11/2 15.38
4 Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) 9 0 6/1 14.29
5 Dumplin’ (Girl in the Movies) 7 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 Boy Erased (Revelation) 4 0 16/1 5.88
8 Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) 2 0 33/1 2.94
9 Quincy (Keep Reachin’) 1 0 66/1 1.49

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 12 5 18/5 21.74
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 12 4 19/5 20.83
3 Black Panther 10 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 9 1 6/1 14.29
5 Isle of Dogs 8 0 7/1 12.50
6 BlacKkKlansman 4 0 16/1 5.88
7 A Quiet Place 3 0 22/1 4.35
8 Vice 2 1 28/1 3.45

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 Black Panther 27 3 39/10 20.41
3 A Quiet Place 26 4 4/1 20.00
4 A Star Is Born 25 1 9/2 18.18
5 Roma 21 3 11/2 15.38
6 Mission Impossible: Fallout 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Incredibles 2 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Bohemian Rhapsody 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 27 8 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 25 12 4/1 20.00
3 Black Panther 25 3 9/2 18.18
4 A Quiet Place 20 2 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 Bohemian Rhapsody 12 0 11/1 8.33
7 Roma 8 2 16/1 5.88
8 The Favourite 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Mission Impossible: Fallout 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 11 10 16/5 23.81
2 Ready Player One 11 0 4/1 20.00
3 First Man 10 0 9/2 18.18
4 Avengers: Infinity War 8 1 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Welcome to Marwen 6 0 9/1 10.00
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 0 58/1 1.69
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 0 60/1 1.64

Not predicted, but nominated: Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Isle of Dogs 28 3 4/1 20.00
2 Incredibles 2 26 11 4/1 20.00
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 24 13 9/2 18.18
4 Ralph Breaks the Internet 27 0 9/2 18.18
5 Mirai 24 0 11/2 15.38
6 Smallfoot 5 1 28/1 3.45
7 Early Man 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Tito and the Birds 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Grinch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 11 5 71/20 21.98
2 Free Solo 10 2 9/2 18.18
3 RBG 9 4 5/1 16.67
4 Three Identical Strangers 8 0 6/1 14.29
5 Minding the Gap 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Hale County This Morning, This Evening 3 0 20/1 4.76
7 Dark Money 2 0 30/1 3.23
8 Shirkers 2 0 30/1 3.23
9 Crime + Punishment 1 0 58/1 1.69
10 Of Fathers and Sons 1 0 60/1 1.64
11 The Silence of Others 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 10 10 18/5 21.74
2 Cold War 11 1 39/10 20.41
3 Capernaum 11 0 9/2 18.18
4 Shoplifters 10 0 5/1 16.67
5 Never Look Away 6 0 9/1 10.00
6 Burning 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 The Guilty 2 0 28/1 3.45
8 Birds of Passage 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Bao 8 6 39/10 20.41
2 Animal Behaviour 8 0 5/1 16.67
3 Lost and Found 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Bilby 7 1 11/2 15.38
5 Weekends 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Bird Karma 3 1 14/1 6.67
7 Age of Sail 2 0 25/1 3.85
8 Pepe le Morse 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 One Small Step 1 0 46/1 2.13

Not predicted, but nominated: Late Afternoon.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Sheep 9 6 69/20 22.47
2 Zion 8 1 9/2 18.18
3 End Game 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Women of the Gulag 8 0 5/1 16.67
5 Period. End of Sentence. 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 63 Boycott 2 1 20/1 4.76
7 A Night at the Garden 2 1 20/1 4.76
8 Los Comandos 1 0 48/1 2.04

Not predicted, but nominated: Lifeboat.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Marguerite 9 1 19/5 20.83
2 Caroline 8 6 4/1 20.00
3 Icare 7 1 11/2 15.38
4 Skin 7 0 6/1 14.29
5 Detainment 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Fauve 3 0 15/1 6.25
7 May Day 2 0 22/1 4.35
8 Chuchotage 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 Mother 1 0 48/1 2.04
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2019: The possible nominees

As I have for the past 2 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars this year so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible (thank you, MoviePass and AMC A-List!).

Like 2017 and 2018, I used odds data from Gold Derby to determine the movies that have a realistic chance of being nomninated in each category. Then I made a big list of all overall movies, sorted by most likely to be nominated to least.

Thanks to last year’s list giving me a jumpstart, I fully completed the Oscars Death Race - watching every movie nominated in every category - for the first time! So maybe the list below will be helpful for anyone else who would like to do the same.


Shortcuts


Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Dec 23 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like the past 2 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability (It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.)

Here we go!

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 30 21 13/2 13.33
2 Roma 30 3 15/2 11.76
3 Green Book 30 5 15/2 11.76
4 The Favourite 29 0 17/2 10.53
5 Black Panther 27 1 10/1 9.09
6 If Beale Street Could Talk 28 0 21/2 8.70
7 BlacKkKlansman 26 0 11/1 8.33
8 Vice 27 0 23/2 8.00
9 First Man 21 0 18/1 5.26
10 Mary Poppins Returns 17 0 22/1 4.35
11 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7 0 52/1 1.89
12 First Reformed 4 0 75/1 1.32
13 A Quiet Place 4 0 92/1 1.08
14 Crazy Rich Asians 4 0 95/1 1.04
15 Widows 3 0 100/1 0.99
16 Eighth Grade 4 0 100/1 0.99
17 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 100/1 0.99
18 The Rider 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 Beautiful Boy 1 0 100/1 0.99
20 Leave No Trace 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) 30 27 16/5 23.81
2 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 2 9/2 18.18
3 BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) 23 1 6/1 14.29
4 The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) 21 0 13/2 13.33
5 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 16 0 9/1 10.00
6 Green Book (Peter Farrelly) 9 0 16/1 5.88
7 First Man (Damien Chazelle) 8 0 20/1 4.76
8 Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) 5 0 30/1 3.23
9 Vice (Adam McKay) 5 0 33/1 2.94
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) 28 16 19/5 20.83
2 The Favourite (Olivia Colman) 30 6 39/10 20.41
3 The Wife (Glenn Close) 28 6 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) 17 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) 10 0 15/1 6.25
7 Widows (Viola Davis) 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Hereditary (Toni Collette) 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Cold War (Joanna Kulig) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 15 19/5 20.83
2 Vice (Christian Bale) 29 7 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) 29 5 4/1 20.00
4 Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) 21 1 13/2 13.33
6 BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) 8 0 20/1 4.76
7 At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe) 5 0 33/1 2.94
8 First Man (Ryan Gosling) 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) 29 21 7/2 22.22
2 Vice (Amy Adams) 26 7 9/2 18.18
3 The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) 27 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Favourite (Emma Stone) 26 1 5/1 16.67
5 First Man (Claire Foy) 19 0 15/2 11.76
6 Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) 6 0 28/1 3.45
7 Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) 5 1 30/1 3.23
8 Roma (Marina de Tavira) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) 2 0 82/1 1.20
12 Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Green Book (Linda Cardellini) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 What They Had (Blythe Danner) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Green Book (Mahershala Ali) 30 16 7/2 22.22
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) 30 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) 27 3 9/2 18.18
4 Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) 23 4 11/2 15.38
5 BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) 16 1 9/1 10.00
6 Vice (Sam Rockwell) 9 0 18/1 5.26
7 Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) 7 1 22/1 4.35
8 Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Vice (Steve Carell) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 29 15 37/10 21.28
2 Roma 29 8 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book 26 4 5/1 16.67
4 First Reformed 23 2 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 20 0 7/1 12.50
6 Eighth Grade 15 1 19/2 9.52
7 A Quiet Place 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Sorry to Bother You 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Capernaum 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Private Life 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 BlacKkKlansman 27 20 19/5 20.83
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 29 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born 28 2 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 28 1 9/2 18.18
5 First Man 10 0 15/1 6.25
6 Leave No Trace 7 0 22/1 4.35
7 Black Panther 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Widows 4 0 40/1 2.44
9 The Death of Stalin 4 0 40/1 2.44
10 Beautiful Boy 3 2 44/1 2.22
11 Crazy Rich Asians 3 0 54/1 1.82
12 Wildlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 29 27 16/5 23.81
2 The Favourite 26 1 5/1 16.67
3 First Man 25 1 5/1 16.67
4 If Beale Street Could Talk 22 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Black Panther 12 0 12/1 7.69
7 Cold War 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Rider 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Widows 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Private War 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 26 11 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 22 12 9/2 18.18
3 A Star Is Born 21 2 11/2 15.38
4 The Favourite 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 13 0 21/2 8.70
6 Widows 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Black Panther 9 2 14/1 6.67
8 Green Book 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 22 July 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 BlacKkKlansman 2 0 70/1 1.41
11 Destroyer 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Quiet Place 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 If Beale Street Could Talk 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 28 17 17/5 22.73
2 Black Panther 28 9 37/10 21.28
3 Mary Poppins Returns 27 1 9/2 18.18
4 Mary Queen of Scots 26 1 9/2 18.18
5 Colette 7 0 20/1 4.76
6 Crazy Rich Asians 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Fantastic Beasts 2 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 A Star Is Born 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 50/1 1.96
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Suspiria 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Vice 9 8 31/20 39.22
2 Black Panther 6 2 4/1 20.00
3 Border 4 0 17/2 10.53
4 Suspiria 3 0 11/1 8.33
5 Stan and Ollie 3 0 11/1 8.33
6 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 23/2 8.00
7 Bohemian Rhapsody 2 0 18/1 5.26

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 28 15 17/5 22.73
2 The Favourite 27 11 37/10 21.28
3 First Man 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 12 0 23/2 8.00
6 Roma 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 Crazy Rich Asians 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Isle of Dogs 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Fantastic Beasts 2 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Shallow) 12 12 16/5 23.81
2 Black Panther (All the Stars) 11 0 9/2 18.18
3 RBG (I’ll Fight) 10 0 11/2 15.38
4 Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) 9 0 6/1 14.29
5 Dumplin’ (Girl in the Movies) 7 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 Boy Erased (Revelation) 4 0 16/1 5.88
8 Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) 2 0 33/1 2.94
9 Quincy (Keep Reachin’) 1 0 66/1 1.49

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 12 5 18/5 21.74
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 12 4 19/5 20.83
3 Black Panther 10 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 9 1 6/1 14.29
5 Isle of Dogs 8 0 7/1 12.50
6 BlacKkKlansman 4 0 16/1 5.88
7 A Quiet Place 3 0 22/1 4.35
8 Vice 2 1 28/1 3.45

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 Black Panther 27 3 39/10 20.41
3 A Quiet Place 26 4 4/1 20.00
4 A Star Is Born 25 1 9/2 18.18
5 Roma 21 3 11/2 15.38
6 Mission Impossible: Fallout 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Incredibles 2 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Bohemian Rhapsody 1 0 100/1 0.99
1 A Star Is Born 27 8 19/5 20.83

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
2 First Man 25 12 4/1 20.00
3 Black Panther 25 3 9/2 18.18
4 A Quiet Place 20 2 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 Bohemian Rhapsody 12 0 11/1 8.33
7 Roma 8 2 16/1 5.88
8 The Favourite 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Mission Impossible: Fallout 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 11 10 16/5 23.81
2 Ready Player One 11 0 4/1 20.00
3 First Man 10 0 9/2 18.18
4 Avengers: Infinity War 8 1 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Welcome to Marwen 6 0 9/1 10.00
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 0 58/1 1.69
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Isle of Dogs 28 3 4/1 20.00
2 Incredibles 2 26 11 4/1 20.00
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 24 13 9/2 18.18
4 Ralph Breaks the Internet 27 0 9/2 18.18
5 Mirai 24 0 11/2 15.38
6 Smallfoot 5 1 28/1 3.45
7 Early Man 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Tito and the Birds 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Grinch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 11 5 71/20 21.98
2 Free Solo 10 2 9/2 18.18
3 RBG 9 4 5/1 16.67
4 Three Identical Strangers 8 0 6/1 14.29
5 Minding the Gap 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Hale County This Morning, This Evening 3 0 20/1 4.76
7 Dark Money 2 0 30/1 3.23
8 Shirkers 2 0 30/1 3.23
9 Crime + Punishment 1 0 58/1 1.69
10 Of Fathers and Sons 1 0 60/1 1.64
11 The Silence of Others 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 10 10 18/5 21.74
2 Cold War 11 1 39/10 20.41
3 Capernaum 11 0 9/2 18.18
4 Shoplifters 10 0 5/1 16.67
5 Never Look Away 6 0 9/1 10.00
6 Burning 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 The Guilty 2 0 28/1 3.45
8 Birds of Passage 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Bao 8 6 39/10 20.41
2 Animal Behaviour 8 0 5/1 16.67
3 Lost and Found 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Bilby 7 1 11/2 15.38
5 Weekends 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Bird Karma 3 1 14/1 6.67
7 Age of Sail 2 0 25/1 3.85
8 Pepe le Morse 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 One Small Step 1 0 46/1 2.13

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Sheep 9 6 69/20 22.47
2 Zion 8 1 9/2 18.18
3 End Game 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Women of the Gulag 8 0 5/1 16.67
5 Period. End of Sentence. 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 63 Boycott 2 1 20/1 4.76
7 A Night at the Garden 2 1 20/1 4.76
8 Los Comandos 1 0 48/1 2.04

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Marguerite 9 1 19/5 20.83
2 Caroline 8 6 4/1 20.00
3 Icare 7 1 11/2 15.38
4 Skin 7 0 6/1 14.29
5 Detainment 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Fauve 3 0 15/1 6.25
7 May Day 2 0 22/1 4.35
8 Chuchotage 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 Mother 1 0 48/1 2.04

Final List

In past years, I composed the final list of only English feature-length films (no foreign films, no documentaries, no shorts). But this year, some of the foreign films are up in other categories (Roma, Cold War) and many of the documentaries actually played in mainstream theaters nationwide (RBG, Free Solo, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, etc). So for this year’s list, I’ve included all movies except short films.

Altogether, that makes 79 unique movies that may be nominated for an Oscar. A Star is Born is in the lead, but it’s not that far ahead of many other very good movies.

(I know they’re longshots, but I’ll be rooting for Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, Beautiful Boy, and A Private War!)

Num Movie Points Possible Categories
1. A Star Is Born 210.15 13 (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
2. Black Panther 196.12 14 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Song, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
3. The Favourite 174.82 11 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
4. Roma 162.71 11 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film)
5. First Man 162.02 12 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
6. Vice 119.48 10 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)
7. Mary Poppins Returns 103.16 11 (Picture, Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Song, Score, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk 98.02 8 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score)
9. Green Book 81.73 9 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design)
10. BlacKkKlansman 65.51 7 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 57.97 5 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
12. A Quiet Place 44.34 7 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
13. Bohemian Rhapsody 34.20 6 (Picture, Actor, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
14. Isle of Dogs 33.87 3 (Production Design, Score, Animated Feature)
15. RBG 32.05 2 (Song, Documentary Feature)
16. Mary Queen of Scots 30.45 5 (Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design)
17. First Reformed 29.92 4 (Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay)
18. Cold War 26.16 3 (Actress, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film)
19. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 21.98 1 (Documentary Feature)
20. Incredibles 2 21.37 2 (Sound Editing, Animated Feature)
21. Ready Player One 20.00 1 (Visual Effects)
22. The Wife 19.17 2 (Actress, Supporting Actor)
23. Capernaum 19.17 2 (Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film)
24. Beautiful Boy 18.60 3 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
25. Widows 18.24 7 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing)
26. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 18.18 1 (Animated Feature)
27. Ralph Breaks the Internet 18.18 1 (Animated Feature)
28. Free Solo 18.18 1 (Documentary Feature)
29. Shoplifters 16.67 1 (Foreign Language Film)
30. Mirai 15.38 1 (Animated Feature)
31. Crazy Rich Asians 14.69 5 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design)
32. Avengers: Infinity War 14.29 1 (Visual Effects)
33. Three Identical Strangers 14.29 1 (Documentary Feature)
34. Minding the Gap 11.76 1 (Documentary Feature)
35. Border 10.53 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)
36. Dumplin’ 10.53 1 (Song)
37. Eighth Grade 10.51 2 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
38. Welcome to Marwen 10.00 1 (Visual Effects)
39. Never Look Away 10.00 1 (Foreign Language Film)
40. Boy Erased 9.33 2 (Supporting Actress, Song)
41. Suspiria 9.32 2 (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)
42. Stan and Ollie 8.33 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)
43. Leave No Trace 7.32 4 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
44. Burning 6.67 1 (Foreign Language Film)
45. Fantastic Beasts 2 4.84 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)
46. Mission Impossible: Fallout 4.84 2 (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
47. Colette 4.76 1 (Costume Design)
48. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 4.76 1 (Documentary Feature)
49. Smallfoot 3.45 1 (Animated Feature)
50. The Guilty 3.45 1 (Foreign Language Film)
51. Dark Money 3.23 1 (Documentary Feature)
52. Shirkers 3.23 1 (Documentary Feature)
53. At Eternity’s Gate 2.94 1 (Actor)
54. Ballad of Buster Scruggs 2.94 1 (Song)
55. The Death of Stalin 2.44 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
56. The Rider 2.22 2 (Picture, Cinematography)
57. 22 July 2.04 1 (Film Editing)
58. Early Man 2.04 1 (Animated Feature)
59. Wildlife 1.98 2 (Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
60. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1.98 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)
61. Ant-Man and the Wasp 1.69 1 (Visual Effects)
62. Crime + Punishment 1.69 1 (Documentary Feature)
63. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1.64 1 (Visual Effects)
64. Of Fathers and Sons 1.64 1 (Documentary Feature)
65. The Silence of Others 1.64 1 (Documentary Feature)
66. Birds of Passage 1.64 1 (Foreign Language Film)
67. Quincy 1.49 1 (Song)
68. Tito and the Birds 1.27 1 (Animated Feature)
69. Hereditary 1.23 1 (Actress)
70. You Were Never Really Here 0.99 1 (Director)
71. Ben Is Back 0.99 1 (Actress)
72. The Old Man and the Gun 0.99 1 (Actor)
73. What They Had 0.99 1 (Supporting Actress)
74. The Hate U Give 0.99 1 (Supporting Actor)
75. Sorry to Bother You 0.99 1 (Original Screenplay)
76. Private Life 0.99 1 (Original Screenplay)
77. A Private War 0.99 1 (Cinematography)
78. Destroyer 0.99 1 (Film Editing)
79. The Grinch 0.99 1 (Animated Feature)
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Oscars checklist 2018, take three: all 59 nominated movies, grouped by highest category

For anyone else attempting the Oscars Death Race (watching every movie nominated in every category!), I’ve again made a list of all movies and grouped them by their highest category. This way, it’s a little easier to see which “major” movies you have yet to watch and which other movies you still need to see.1


“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 55 total nominations between them!):

  • [13] The Shape of Water
  • [8] Dunkirk
  • [7] Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • [6] Phantom Thread
  • [6] Darkest Hour
  • [5] Lady Bird
  • [4] Get Out
  • [4] Call Me By Your Name
  • [2] The Post

5 more movies nominated in Best Actor/Actress:

  • [4] Mudbound (Best Supporting Actress / Mary J. Blige)
  • [3] I, Tonya (Best Actress / Margot Robbie and Best Supporting Actress / Allison Janney)
  • [1] Roman J. Israel Esq. (Best Best Actor / Denzel Washington)
  • [1] All the Money in the World (Best Supporting Actor / Christopher Plummer)
  • [1] The Florida Project (Best Supporting Actor / Willem Dafoe)

4 more movies nominated in Best Original/Adapted Screenplay:

  • [1] Logan
  • [1] Molly’s Game
  • [1] The Disaster Artist
  • [1] The Big Sick

1 more movie nominated in Best Cinematography:

  • [5] Blade Runner 2049

“Minor” categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Film:

  • [2] Coco
  • [1] Ferdinand
  • [1] Loving Vincent
  • [1] The Boss Baby
  • [1] The Breadwinner

5 more movies nominated in Best Foreign Film:

  • [1] A Fantastic Woman
  • [1] Loveless
  • [1] Of Body and Soul
  • [1] The Insult
  • [1] The Square

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary:

  • [1] Abacus
  • [1] Faces Places
  • [1] Icarus
  • [1] Last Men in Aleppo
  • [1] Strong Island

Technical categories

10 more movies nominated in technical categories (Best Score / Song / Sound Editing / Sound Mixing / Production Design / Makeup & Hairstyling / Costume Design / Film Editing / Visual Effects):

  • [4] Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • [3] Baby Driver
  • [2] Beauty and the Beast
  • [2] Victoria and Abdul
  • [1] Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • [1] Kong: Skull Island
  • [1] Marshall
  • [1] The Greatest Showman
  • [1] War for the Planet of the Apes
  • [1] Wonder

Short film categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Live Action Short Film:

  • [1] DeKalb Elementary
  • [1] My Nephew Emmett
  • [1] The Eleven O’Clock
  • [1] The Silent Child
  • [1] Watu Wote/All of Us

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Short Film:

  • [1] Dear Basketball
  • [1] Garden Party
  • [1] Lou
  • [1] Negative Space
  • [1] Revolting Rhymes

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary - Short Subject:

  • [1] Edith+Eddie
  • [1] Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • [1] Heroin(e)
  • [1] Knife Skills
  • [1] Traffic Stop

By the numbers

There are 24 Oscar categories, with 5 nominees in almost every category (Best Picture has 9 nominees again this year, Makeup & Hairstyling has only 3 nominees per usual).

That means 122 total nominations. Altogether, there are 44 feature-length films and 15 short films nominated (3 fewer than last year!).

If you group everything by their highest-nominated category, you’re looking at…

  • 19 “major” category nominees
  • 15 “minor” category nominees
  • 10 technical category nominees
  • 15 short category nominees

So if you want to watch…

  • All the Best Picture nominees: 9 movies.
  • All the BP + major nominees: 19 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor nominees: 34 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor + technical nominees (AKA no shorts): 44 movies.

And if you wanted to watch everything…59 movies!

  1. Of the 34 feature-length English films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 3 so far: Mudbound (a Netflix original, but I’m hoping they re-release it in theaters now), The Breadwinner (foreign animated movie that I apparently missed in November), and…The Boss Baby (really?!). ↩︎

Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2018, take two: The snubs and surprises

Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!

Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!

Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…


Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Kong: Skull Island.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: On Body and Soul.

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Garden Party, Revolting Rhymes.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Knife Skills, Traffic Stop.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2018: the contenders

A year ago, I made a list of every movie contending for an Oscar so I could watch as many as I could in theaters. And it worked! I watched lots of movies I might have otherwise skipped. And by Oscar night, I’d seen every nominated movie but one!1

I know the official nominees will be announced soon, but I find this stuff fascinating anyways. It’s always interesting to see how many of the actual nominees the experts predict correctly!

I again used odds data from Gold Derby’s experts to calculate “points” for each movie with a chance of earning a nomination. This time, I didn’t make the mistake of trying to actually calculate the data in Markdown tables this time. Who would’ve guessed that actual spreadsheet software would be better for doing lots of calculations? :-D

If you’re curious about the exact methodology I used, you can read my post from last year. Otherwise, let’s move on to the (hopeful) nominees!


Shortcuts


Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on 1/20 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like last year, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability, calculated correctly this year! It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, it’s the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99

By Movie

Here’s the list of movies sorted alphabetically. If you want to skip this, you can just skip down to the final list.

  • All the Money in the World (8.65 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer) (14/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actress (Michelle Williams) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Baby Driver (27.47 total points)
    • 12.50 pts (4th) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Sound Mixing (10/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Film Editing (16/1 odds)
  • Battle of the Sexes (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actress (Emma Stone) (100/1 odds)
  • Beauty and the Beast (45.73 total points)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Costume Design (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Song (Evermore) (13/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (9th) for Best Sound Mixing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Blade Runner 2049 (136.12 total points)
    • 34.48 pts (1st) for Best Cinematography (19/10 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Production Design (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Visual Effects (7/2 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Editing (4/1 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Mixing (4/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (4th) for Best Film Editing (9/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • Boss Baby (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Call Me By Your Name (116.50 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Adapted Screenplay (3/2 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet) (7/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Song (The Mystery of Love) (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (7th) for Best Picture (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer) (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Cinematography (10/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg) (12/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Director (Luca Guadagnino) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Captain Underpants (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Coco (78.80 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Animated Feature (3/2 odds)
    • 36.36 pts (1st) for Best Song (Remember Me) (7/4 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (9th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
  • Cries From Syria (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Song (Prayers for This World) (100/1 odds)
  • Darkest Hour (128.78 total points)
    • 52.38 pts (1st) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/11 odds)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Actor (Gary Oldman) (17/10 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Costume Design (17/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Cinematography (14/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Score (14/1 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (9th) for Best Picture (25/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Director (Joe Wright) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actress (Kristin Scott Thomas) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Despicable Me 3 (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Downsizing (4.44 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau) (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
  • Dunkirk (231.05 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Sound Editing (3/2 odds)
    • 38.46 pts (1st) for Best Film Editing (8/5 odds)
    • 35.71 pts (1st) for Best Sound Mixing (9/5 odds)
    • 26.67 pts (2nd) for Best Cinematography (11/4 odds)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Score (14/5 odds)
    • 23.08 pts (2nd) for Best Director (Christopher Nolan) (10/3 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Production Design (11/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Visual Effects (13/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Ferdinand (7.69 total points)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Animated Feature (12/1 odds)
  • Fifty Shades Darker (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Song (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) (100/1 odds)
  • Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Actress (Annette Bening) (100/1 odds)
  • Get Out (77.11 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (1st) for Best Original Screenplay (5/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Film Editing (11/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Director (Jordan Peele) (17/2 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Actor (Daniel Kaluuya) (17/2 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Girls Trip (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actress (Tiffany Haddish) (66/1 odds)
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (17.66 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (6th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • I, Tonya (53.42 total points)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actress (Allison Janney) (12/5 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Actress (Margot Robbie) (9/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (11th) for Best Picture (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • In This Corner of The World (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Lady Bird (107.03 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf) (5/2 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Original Screenplay (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actress (Saoirse Ronan) (7/2 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Director (Greta Gerwig) (5/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (2nd) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Film Editing (80/1 odds)
  • Logan (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
  • Loving Vincent (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • Marshall (6.67 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Song (Stand Up for Something) (14/1 odds)
  • Mary and the Witch’s Flower (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Animated Feature (40/1 odds)
  • Molly’s Game (19.15 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (5/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (6th) for Best Actress (Jessica Chastain) (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (15th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Mother! (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Mudbound (43.63 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (9/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige) (8/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Song (Mighty River) (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Cinematography (18/1 odds)
    • 1.96 pts (12nd) for Best Picture (50/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actor (Jason Mitchell) (80/1 odds)
  • Murder on the Orient Express (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Costume Design (66/1 odds)
  • Novitiate (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Supporting Actress (Melissa Leo) (100/1 odds)
  • Okja (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • Phantom Thread (79.89 total points)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Costume Design (17/10 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Score (5/1 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) (11/2 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Production Design (16/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (13th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Roman J. Israel, Esq. (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actor (Denzel Washington) (100/1 odds)
  • Split (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actor (James McAvoy) (100/1 odds)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (41.35 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Visual Effects (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Sound Mixing (17/2 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
  • Stronger (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal) (100/1 odds)
  • The Beguiled (3.67 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Costume Design (80/1 odds)
  • The Big Sick (26.11 total points)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actress (Holly Hunter) (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Original Screenplay (11/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (10th) for Best Picture (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actor (Ray Romano) (100/1 odds)
  • The Breadwinner (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • The Disaster Artist (24.48 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (4th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Actor (James Franco) (10/1 odds)
  • The Florida Project (31.65 total points)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe) (14/5 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (8th) for Best Picture (22/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • The Greatest Showman (39.62 total points)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Song (This Is Me) (4/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Costume Design (13/2 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (7th) for Best Production Design (25/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
  • The Lego Batman Movie (11.76 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Animated Feature (15/2 odds)
  • The Post (53.04 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Actress (Meryl Streep) (15/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (6th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Score (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Director (Steven Spielberg) (14/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Original Screenplay (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Actor (Tom Hanks) (18/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Film Editing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Production Design (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • The Promise (1.23 total points)
    • 1.23 pts (7th) for Best Song (The Promise (song)) (80/1 odds)
  • The Shape of Water (235.77 total points)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Director (Guillermo Del Toro) (21/10 odds)
    • 30.77 pts (1st) for Best Production Design (9/4 odds)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Score (12/5 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (3rd) for Best Actress (Sally Hawkins) (4/1 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Cinematography (9/2 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Film Editing (9/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Mixing (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Picture (7/1 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins) (7/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Original Screenplay (8/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Visual Effects (8/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Costume Design (9/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (124.98 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Actress (Frances McDormand) (15/8 odds)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) (21/10 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (3rd) for Best Original Screenplay (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (1st) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Director (Martin McDonagh) (11/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Film Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actor (Woody Harrelson) (28/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Victoria and Abdul (6.66 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Costume Design (28/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (5th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (46.37 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Visual Effects (15/8 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Sound Mixing (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder (21.01 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (2nd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (5th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (22/1 odds)
  • Wonder Wheel (1.98 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actress (Kate Winslet) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder Woman (8.88 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Sound Editing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (14th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonderstruck (2.97 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)

Final List

And now, the final list! Interestingly enough, some of the movies with the most aggregate points are not strong contenders for Best Picture this year. So much like Jackie last year, they are “punching above their weight” due to strong contention for technical awards.

Notably, this is a list of English feature-length films (i.e. movies generally available in US theaters). So it does not include documentaries, foreign films, or any of the short films.

Num Points Movie Categories (Pts/Cat)
1. 235.77 pts The Shape of Water 14 (16.84)
2. 231.05 pts Dunkirk 10 (23.11)
3. 136.12 pts Blade Runner 2049 9 (15.12)
4. 128.78 pts Darkest Hour 11 (11.71)
5. 124.98 pts Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9 (13.89)
6. 116.50 pts Call Me By Your Name 9 (12.94)
7. 107.03 pts Lady Bird 6 (17.84)
8. 79.89 pts Phantom Thread 7 (11.41)
9. 78.80 pts Coco 3 (26.27)
10. 77.11 pts Get Out 6 (12.85)
11. 53.42 pts I, Tonya 6 (8.90)
12. 53.04 pts The Post 9 (5.89)
13. 46.37 pts War for the Planet of the Apes 5 (9.27)
14. 45.73 pts Beauty and the Beast 5 (9.15)
15. 43.63 pts Mudbound 6 (7.27)
16. 41.35 pts Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4 (10.34)
17. 39.62 pts The Greatest Showman 4 (9.90)
18. 31.65 pts The Florida Project 3 (10.55)
19. 27.47 pts Baby Driver 3 (9.16)
20. 26.11 pts The Big Sick 4 (6.53)
21. 24.48 pts The Disaster Artist 2 (12.24)
22. 21.01 pts Wonder 2 (10.51)
23. 19.15 pts Molly’s Game 3 (6.38)
24. 18.18 pts The Breadwinner 1 (18.18)
25. 18.18 pts Loving Vincent 1 (18.18)
26. 17.66 pts Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 (8.83)
27. 11.76 pts The Lego Batman Movie 1 (11.76)
28. 8.88 pts Wonder Woman 7 (1.27)
29. 8.65 pts All the Money in the World 3 (2.88)
30. 7.69 pts Ferdinand 1 (7.69)
31. 6.67 pts Marshall 1 (6.67)
32. 6.66 pts Victoria and Abdul 4 (1.67)
33. 4.44 pts Downsizing 2 (2.22)
34. 3.67 pts The Beguiled 2 (1.84)
35. 2.97 pts Wonderstruck 3 (0.99)
36. 2.44 pts Logan 1 (2.44)
37. 2.44 pts Mary and the Witch’s Flower 1 (2.44)
38. 1.98 pts Wonder Wheel 2 (0.99)
39. 1.49 pts Murder on the Orient Express 1 (1.49)
40. 1.49 pts Girls Trip 1 (1.49)
41. 1.23 pts The Promise 1 (1.23)
42. 0.99 pts Battle of the Sexes 1 (0.99)
43. 0.99 pts Mother! 1 (0.99)
44. 0.99 pts Roman J. Israel, Esq. 1 (0.99)
45. 0.99 pts Okja 1 (0.99)
46. 0.99 pts Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 1 (0.99)
47. 0.99 pts Stronger 1 (0.99)
48. 0.99 pts Novitiate 1 (0.99)
49. 0.99 pts Captain Underpants 1 (0.99)
50. 0.99 pts Despicable Me 3 1 (0.99)
51. 0.99 pts Split 1 (0.99)
52. 0.99 pts Cries From Syria 1 (0.99)
53. 0.99 pts Fifty Shades Darker 1 (0.99)
54. 0.99 pts Boss Baby 1 (0.99)
55. 0.99 pts In This Corner of The World 1 (0.99)
  1. The only movie I missed: the 8-hour OJ Simpson documentary. But you better believe I’m going to complete the Oscars Death Race this year! ↩︎

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What I want in iOS 11: Wish list & grievances

This year is different. For the first time in all the years I’ve been making these wish lists, I don’t feel compelled to note many new features that I want in iOS.

Instead, I have grievances. It feels like Apple has taken its eye off the ball and is falling further and further behind its competitors. Google’s machine learning has rapidly evolved and is becoming a serious competitive advantage. Amazon is killing it with its Echo speakers and voice recognition in general. And Microsoft – Microsoft! – is becoming a paragon of software and hardware design.

Why has thou strayed so, Apple?

In fact, about 6 months ago, I bought my first Android device. It’s a budget 6” behemoth, it’s kinda slow, and the default fonts are weird – but I still really like it (if nothing else, it’s convinced me that my next phone is going to have the biggest screen possible!).

The only reason I could even think about doing that is because I’ve been straying further and further from Apple’s native apps. (Don’t get me started on all the bugs the Photos app has given me!) It turns out Google’s apps are really, really good. I’ll have more to write about that soon, but suffice it to say that Apple really needs to knock it out of the park at WWDC this year for folks like me to even think about trusting Apple’s apps and services again.

Now, with all that said, let’s move on to what I’m hoping to see in iOS 11 this year…


Picture-in-Picture on iPhone

It was my first wish list item last year, and it’s my first wish list item again this year. If you’re going to abandon the iPad Mini (*weeps*), then at least let us watch videos while multitasking on our large-screen iPhones.

iPads have PIP. The newly-unveiled Android O has PIP. Time to add it to phones too, Apple!

Reset native apps

One feature I’ve really grown to like in using Google’s iPhone apps is that if anything goes wrong – bug in my data, aggressive caching by mistake, etc – I can just delete the app, install it again, and it’ll download my data from the cloud.

Compare to Apple’s native apps. I pay for 200GB of iCloud storage so I can use iCloud Photo Library. But it was taking up too much space on my 16GB iPad, so I turned off the feature a while back. But today, even though my iPad has 0 photos on it, the Photos app is still using 1.8GB of my 12GB of usable space. I’ve tried EVERYTHING short of resetting the device to free up that space. Nothing works. When Google Photos started taking up too much space on my phone, I just deleted the app for a couple weeks. When I reinstalled it a few weeks later, I was right back to where I was.

It would be SO nice if I could “refresh” all of the app data for Apple’s native apps without resetting my entire device. They started letting you delete 1st-party apps with iOS 10, I’m hoping they go a step further with iOS 11 and make the native apps truly modular.

Cross-platform app purchases

I can buy an iOS app from iTunes on a computer. But why can’t I buy a MacOS app from the App Store on an iOS device? Heck, why can’t I even view the Mac App Store listing for any app from an iOS device? (It was only once I dipped my toe into the Android ecosystem that I realized just how backwards a lot of Apple services are.)

iPad: Don’t let incoming calls take over screen when playing live video!

Seriously, this is insane. I was watching the NBA finals tonight and someone called me. Because of Apple’s Continuity features, it also rang on my iPad. Except, just like how an incoming call on an iPhone takes over the whole screen, it also took over my iPad screen, interrupting my live stream of the game. I use my iPad as a portable TV of sorts, especially for watching sports, and it is maddening if I forget to turn on Do Not Disturb on my iPad. WHY, Apple, WHY?

Incoming calls shouldn’t take over the entire screen on your phone, and they certainly shouldn’t take over your whole iPad screen. ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU’RE STREAMING A LIVE VIDEO.

Record voice and FaceTime calls

I’m not a podcaster, but I’ve read plenty about how frustrating it is for them to have to juggle using Skype just to have the ability to record a conversation. But the fact of the matter is that it would be great for everyone if we could record calls, especially FaceTime calls.

Video calls with family and friends are more than calls - they’re often memories. I use FaceTime to have meaningful conversations with distant relatives and I often wish I could do more than take a low-resolution screenshot to remember the moment.

In fact, my Mom has a 10+ minute video she recorded using the camera on her phone…of my sister FaceTiming us from another country while on vacation. Seriously, my mom used her phone’s camera just to record everything my sister was showing us on my phone, all because Apple can’t be bothered to add proper screen recording.

PS. How about group calling, while you’re at it?

3rd-party keyboards working properly

I tried a bunch of 3rd-party keyboards when they debuted in iOS 8, but I never stuck with any of them. Mostly because I thought they weren’t programmed well and would crash often, defaulting back the native keyboard. Well, 3 years later, and I’m still seeing the same crashes. So maybe it wasn’t the apps…

Lately, I’ve beeen using GBoard, which has an excellent swipe keyboard and integrated GIF features. It crashes a lot less than any other 3rd-party keyboard I’ve used (I’m looking at you, SwiftKey!), but still too much to be entirely comfortable with it.

Just fix it, Apple. FIX IT.

Open in 3rd-party apps properly

Why, when I come across a Twitter link in another app, do I have to long-press on the link and click on ‘Open in Safari’ to get it to open in the Twitter app? It’s the same for YouTube videos too.

In fact, it’s downright aggravating trying to get links to open properly in native apps. It’s great that apps can tell the operating system to open links in their app natively, not in the browser. But as a user, I want the CHOICE. Sometimes I just want to quickly preview a tweet in the browser, without opening the Twitter app and losing my place in the timeline from a few minutes ago. Or sometimes I was already watching a YouTube video, switched to another app for a moment and clicked on a link, and now I’ve lost the original video I was watching.

At a minimum, fix the ‘Open in Safari’ button to properly reflect the app that is going to open instead. Seriously, this is amateur hour, Apple.

Improved default video player

It boggles my mind that after 10 years, the default video player is little-changed…and STILL doesn’t have a ‘skip back 10 seconds’ button! Seriously, this is table stakes for any 3rd-party app that plays videos.

Netflix has a button in the bottom left. Amazon’s video app lets you swipe left anywhere on the screen. But I think I like YouTube’s implementation most of all, just a simple double-tap on the left side of the screen.

Pick one. Any one. Just add this to the video player, Apple. And while you’re at it, how about fixing that awful volume changing HUD you implemented in iOS 7?

macOS and tvOS updates

These still exist, right? Has someone told Apple?

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Oscars checklist, take 3: a list of all 62 movies actually nominated, grouped by highest category

The Oscar nominees were announced last week and…my checklist actually worked! I was able to watch almost every major movie nominated while still in theaters, which was my main goal. And even the couple I missed, I was able to watch at home before the nominations were announced.1

Now, I’m going to try to see just how many of the foreign films and documentaries and short films I can watch before the awards ceremony. If it helps anyone else, I made a list of all the movies and grouped them by their highest-nominated category.

(I was also curious about how closely the experts’ predictions matched up with the actual nominees, so I’ve compared them in the last section below!)


“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 59 total nominations between them!):

  • [14] La La Land
  • [8] Arrival
  • [8] Moonlight
  • [6] Hacksaw Ridge
  • [6] Lion
  • [6] Manchester by the Sea
  • [4] Fences
  • [4] Hell or High Water
  • [3] Hidden Figures

6 more movies nominated in Best Actor/Actress:

  • [3] Jackie (Best Actress / Natalie Portman)
  • [2] Florence Foster Jenkins (Best Actress / Meryl Streep)
  • [1] Captain Fantastic (Best Actor / Viggo Mortensen)
  • [1] Elle (Best Actress / Isabelle Huppert)
  • [1] Loving (Best Actress / Ruth Negga)
  • [1] Nocturnal Animals (Best Supporting Actor / Michael Shannon)

2 more movies nominated in Best Original Screenplay:

  • [1] 20th Century Women
  • [1] The Lobster

1 more movie nominated in Best Cinematography:

  • [1] Silence

“Minor” categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Film:

  • [2] Kubo and the Two Strings
  • [2] Moana
  • [1] My Life As a Zucchini
  • [1] The Red Turtle
  • [1] Zootopia

5 more movies nominated in Best Foreign Film:

  • [2] A Man Called Ove
  • [1] Land of Mine
  • [1] Tanna
  • [1] The Salesman
  • [1] Toni Erdmann

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary:

  • [1] 13th
  • [1] Fire at Sea
  • [1] I Am Not Your Negro
  • [1] Life Animated
  • [1] O.J.: Made in America

Technical categories

14 more movies nominated in technical categories (Best Score / Song / Sound Editing / Sound Mixing / Production Design / Makeup & Hairstyling / Costume Design / Film Editing / Visual Effects):

  • [2] Deepwater Horizon
  • [2] Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • [2] Passengers
  • [2] Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  • [1] 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  • [1] Allied
  • [1] Doctor Strange
  • [1] Hail, Caesar!
  • [1] Jim: The James Foley Story
  • [1] Star Trek Beyond
  • [1] Suicide Squad
  • [1] Sully
  • [1] The Jungle Book
  • [1] Trolls

Short film categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Live Action Short Film:

  • [1] Ennemis Interieurs (28m)
  • [1] La Femme et le TGV (30m)
  • [1] Silent Nights (30m)
  • [1] Sing (25m)
  • [1] Timecode (15m)

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Short Film:

  • [1] Blind Vaysha (8m)
  • [1] Borrowed Time (7m)
  • [1] Pear Cider and Cigarettes (35m)
  • [1] Pearl (6m)
  • [1] Piper (6m)

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary - Short Subject:

  • [1] 4.1 Miles (26m)
  • [1] Extremis (24m)
  • [1] Joe’s Violin (24m)
  • [1] The White Helmets (41m)
  • [1] Watani: My Homeland (39m)

By the numbers

There are 24 Oscar categories, with 5 nominees in almost every category (Best Picture has 9 nominees, Makeup & Hairstyling has 3 nominees). That means 122 total nominations. Altogether, there are 47 feature-length films and 15 short films nominated.

Of the 47 feature-length films, if you group them by their highest-nominated category, you’re looking at…

  • 18 “major” category nominees
  • 15 “minor” category nominees
  • 14 technical category nominees
  • 15 short category nominees

So if you want to watch…

  • All the Best Picture nominees: 9 movies.
  • All the BP + major nominees: 18 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor nominees: 33 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor + technical nominees (AKA no shorts): 47 movies.

And if you wanted to watch everything…62 movies! Folks like Joe Reid and Todd VanDerWerff try to do this.


How accurate were the experts?

While I was making this list, I started comparing it to the experts’ predictions I compiled in my last 2 posts. How many categories did they get exactly right? (Just one!) Did they miss any nominations entirely? (Yes!) Did they miss every nomination in any category entirely? (Yep!)

Anyways, I thought it was just kinda fun to look back at the predictions, so I’ve copied the original lists by category below and bolded the actual nominees. Remember, these predictions are from late November, before some of the movies were even released.

(Quick reminder about the columns: NOM is how many experts thought that movie would be nominated, WIN is how many experts thought it would win the category, ODDS are Gold Derby’s odds, and PTS is a simple inversion of the odds.)

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 26 22 9/2 22.22
2 Manchester by the Sea 26 4 13/2 15.38
3 Moonlight 26 0 9/1 11.11
4 Fences 25 0 9/1 11.11
5 Loving 22 1 12/1 8.33
6 Silence 21 0 14/1 7.14
7 Lion 20 0 14/1 7.14
8 Jackie 18 0 16/1 6.25
9 Arrival 15 0 20/1 5.00
10 Sully 14 0 28/1 3.57
11 Hidden Figures 10 0 33/1 3.03
12 Hell or High Water 6 0 50/1 2.00
13 Hacksaw Ridge 7 0 66/1 1.52
14 A Monster Calls 2 0 100/1 1.00
15 Nocturnal Animals 4 0 100/1 1.00
16 Patriot’s Day 1 0 100/1 1.00
17 The Birth of a Nation 4 0 100/1 1.00
18 20th Century Women 1 0 100/1 1.00
19 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 2 0 100/1 1.00
20 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Damien Chazelle) 26 22 17/10 58.82
2 Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan) 26 4 4/1 25.00
3 Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) 23 0 6/1 16.67
4 Silence (Martin Scorsese) 14 0 12/1 8.33
5 Fences (Denzel Washington) 14 1 12/1 8.33
6 Jackie (Pablo Larrain) 7 0 33/1 3.03
7 Loving (Jeff Nichols) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Arrival (Denis Villeneuve) 4 0 66/1 1.52
9 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee) 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Lion (Garth Davis) 2 0 80/1 1.25
11 Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Passengers (Morten Tyldum) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Sully (Clint Eastwood) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson) 1 0 100/1 1.00
36 Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck) 26 17 2/1 50.00
2 Fences (Denzel Washington) 24 10 14/5 35.71
3 La La Land (Ryan Gosling) 22 0 13/2 15.38
4 Loving (Joel Edgerton) 17 0 9/1 11.11
5 Sully (Tom Hanks) 14 0 14/1 7.14
6 Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen) 5 0 40/1 2.50
7 Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield) 6 0 40/1 2.50
8 The Founder (Michael Keaton) 3 0 66/1 1.52
9 Silence (Andrew Garfield) 3 0 80/1 1.25
10 Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty) 2 0 100/1 1.00
11 Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker) 2 0 100/1 1.00
13 Gold (Matthew McConaughey) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Emma Stone) 26 17 21/10 47.62
2 Jackie (Natalie Portman) 25 6 7/2 28.57
3 Loving (Ruth Negga) 23 2 6/1 16.67
4 20th Century Women (Annette Bening) 20 1 7/1 14.29
5 Arrival (Amy Adams) 15 0 14/1 7.14
6 Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson) 4 1 25/1 4.00
7 Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep) 4 0 50/1 2.00
9 Elle (Isabelle Huppert) 4 0 66/1 1.52
10 Fences (Viola Davis) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Moonlight (Mahershala Ali) 24 13 12/5 41.67
2 Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges) 22 4 9/2 22.22
3 Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges) 18 2 13/2 15.38
4 Lion (Dev Patel) 14 3 9/1 11.11
5 Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon) 14 3 9/1 11.11
6 Silence (Liam Neeson) 10 2 12/1 8.33
7 Fences (Stephen Henderson) 5 0 50/1 2.00
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant) 6 0 50/1 2.00
9 Fences (Jovan Adepo) 4 0 50/1 2.00
10 Denial (Timothy Spall) 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Hell or High Water (Ben Foster) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner) 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler) 1 0 100/1 1.00
25 Fences (Mykelti Williamson) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences (Viola Davis) 25 19 2/1 50.00
2 Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams) 23 8 10/3 30.00
3 Moonlight (Naomie Harris) 24 0 5/1 20.00
4 Lion (Nicole Kidman) 20 0 9/1 11.11
5 20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig) 10 0 20/1 5.00
6 Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae) 8 0 22/1 4.55
7 A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones) 7 0 33/1 3.03
8 The Hollars (Margo Martindale) 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King) 3 0 100/1 1.00
10 20th Century Women (Elle Fanning) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong’o) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 The Founder (Laura Dern) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00
23 Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea 24 18 2/1 50.00
2 Moonlight 23 5 7/2 28.57
3 La La Land 23 2 9/2 22.22
4 Loving 13 1 11/1 9.09
5 Jackie 15 0 12/1 8.33
6 Hell or High Water 8 0 20/1 5.00
7 20th Century Women 10 0 20/1 5.00
8 Captain Fantastic 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
22 The Lobster 1 0 100/1 1.00

NOTE: Moonlight got switched into Best Adapted Screenplay, but it was indeed nominated, so I’ve bolded it here anyways.

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences 21 19 19/10 52.63
2 Arrival 21 2 5/1 20.00
3 Silence 20 2 11/2 18.18
4 Lion 17 1 15/2 13.33
5 Nocturnal Animals 12 1 12/1 8.33
6 Hidden Figures 11 0 16/1 6.25
7 A Monster Calls 6 1 25/1 4.00
8 Hacksaw Ridge 2 0 66/1 1.52
9 Love and Friendship 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Elle 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Finding Dory 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Snowden 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 18 14 19/10 52.63
2 Silence 15 2 6/1 16.67
3 Arrival 13 2 6/1 16.67
4 Jackie 13 0 9/1 11.11
5 Moonlight 12 0 9/1 11.11
6 Live By Night 4 0 28/1 3.57
7 Nocturnal Animals 2 1 33/1 3.03
8 Lion 3 0 50/1 2.00
9 The Jungle Book 3 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hail, Caesar! 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 A Monster Calls 2 0 80/1 1.25
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Cafe Society 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Zootopia 21 16 15/8 53.33
2 Kubo and the Two Strings 18 2 5/1 20.00
3 Moana 15 2 13/2 15.38
4 Finding Dory 14 0 8/1 12.50
5 The Red Turtle 13 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sing 9 1 14/1 7.14
7 Sausage Party 6 0 28/1 3.57
8 The Little Prince 4 0 40/1 2.50
9 Trolls 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 My Life as a Zucchini 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Miss Hokusai 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Doctor Strange 8 4 3/1 33.33
2 The Jungle Book 6 5 10/3 30.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 1 11/2 18.18
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 0 9/1 11.11
5 Arrival 4 1 10/1 10.00
6 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 5 0 20/1 5.00
7 Captain America: Civil War 3 0 25/1 4.00
8 Sully 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 66/1 1.52
10 The BFG 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 A Monster Calls 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Warcraft 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Deadpool 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Deepwater Horizon, Kubo and the Two Strings.

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 10 2/1 50.00
2 Silence 9 1 11/2 18.18
3 Jackie 9 1 13/2 15.38
4 Hacksaw Ridge 8 0 10/1 10.00
5 Moonlight 6 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sully 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 The Jungle Book 2 1 28/1 3.57
8 Hidden Figures 2 0 28/1 3.57
9 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 28/1 3.57
10 Arrival 3 0 33/1 3.03
11 Deepwater Horizon 2 0 66/1 1.52
12 Lion 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Manchester by the Sea 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Hell or High Water.

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 11 9/5 55.56
2 Jackie 10 2 4/1 25.00
3 Silence 9 1 7/1 14.29
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 6 0 14/1 7.14
5 Arrival 3 0 14/1 7.14
6 Lion 4 0 22/1 4.55
7 The Jungle Book 5 0 25/1 4.00
8 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Hidden Figures 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Moonlight 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 66/1 1.52
12 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
13 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Passengers.

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Hacksaw Ridge 9 9 7/4 57.14
2 La La Land 8 2 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 0 13/2 15.38
4 Deepwater Horizon 6 0 12/1 8.33
5 Silence 4 0 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 4 0 14/1 7.14
7 Arrival 2 0 25/1 4.00
8 Live By Night 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00
10 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 9 11 3/2 66.67
2 Hacksaw Ridge 9 0 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8 0 11/2 18.18
4 Silence 5 0 10/1 10.00
5 The Jungle Book 4 0 16/1 6.25
6 Deepwater Horizon 4 0 25/1 4.00
7 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 2 0 50/1 2.00
8 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
9 Arrival 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi.

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 11 11 19/10 52.63
2 Jackie 11 0 6/1 16.67
3 Silence 9 0 13/2 15.38
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9 1 15/2 13.33
5 Rules Don’t Apply 5 1 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 3 1 22/1 4.55
7 Live By Night 2 0 22/1 4.55
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 0 28/1 3.57
9 Hidden Figures 3 0 33/1 3.03
10 Hail, Caesar! 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
12 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Arrival, Passengers.

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 5 11/4 36.36
2 La La Land 10 6 14/5 35.71
3 Silence 7 1 6/1 16.67
4 Florence Foster Jenkins 7 1 8/1 12.50
5 Live By Night 3 0 16/1 6.25
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5 0 18/1 5.56
7 Allied 4 0 28/1 3.57
8 Rules Don’t Apply 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Captain Fantastic 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Love and Friendship 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hidden Figures 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 10 5/4 80.00
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 1 7/1 14.29
3 Silence 5 0 9/1 11.11
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 1 11/1 9.09
5 Florence Foster Jenkins 3 1 11/1 9.09
6 Doctor Strange 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 Deadpool 2 0 28/1 3.57
8 Loving 2 0 33/1 3.03
9 A Monster Calls 1 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 50/1 2.00
11 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 1 0 50/1 2.00

Nominated, but not in this list: A Man Called Ove, Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond. (That’s right, the experts missed all 3 nominees entirely!)

  1. Of the 37 feature length films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 4: The Red Turtle (foreign animated movie which was just released in theaters this week, after nominations were announced), My Life As a Zucchini (foreign animated movie that is still not out in theaters or on home video, as far as I can find), Hail Caesar! (a February movie nominated for Best Production Design), and Jim: The James Foley Story (a documentary with one nomination for Best Song). ↩︎

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