Like the last 3 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible in advance (thank you, AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited!).

In a change from past years, I didn’t use any math to calculate the most likely nominees. Instead, I just downloaded GoldDerby’s list of movies with a chance of being nominated in any category, removed all duplicates, and sorted it by highest category. I felt this gave me a better list from which to work, starting with the movies that are widely acclaimed and have a chance at Best Picture, and ending with movies that may only be nominated in technical categories.

Altogether, this gave me a list of 72 possible movies. Hopefully, this will be the second year in a row that I successfully complete the Oscars Death Race!


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Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Jan 1.

Like the last 3 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM DEL NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story - 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite - 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell - 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory - 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out - 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart - 7 0 22/1
8 1917 - 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name - 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell - 1 0 100/1
11 Us - 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Final List

This list includes all feature-length films (no shorts). Altogether, there are 72 unique films that may be nominated for an Oscar.

# Film Highest Category Total Categories
1. The Irishman Best Picture 13
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Picture 12
3. Parasite Best Picture 12
4. Marriage Story Best Picture 8
5. 1917 Best Picture 11
6. Jojo Rabbit Best Picture 7
7. Little Women Best Picture 12
8. Joker Best Picture 12
9. Ford v Ferrari Best Picture 8
10. Bombshell Best Picture 10
11. The Farewell Best Picture 5
12. The Two Popes Best Picture 8
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Best Picture 3
14. Avengers: Endgame Best Picture 8
15. Pain and Glory Best Picture 8
16. Knives Out Best Picture 3
17. Dolemite Is My Name Best Picture 8
18. Hustlers Best Picture 3
19. Booksmart Best Picture 2
20. Rocketman Best Picture 7
21. The Report Best Picture 2
22. The Lighthouse Best Picture 3
23. Judy Best Actress 4
24. Harriet Best Actress 2
25. Us Best Actress 3
26. Clemency Best Actress 1
27. Late Night Best Actress 1
28. Uncut Gems Best Actor 2
29. Richard Jewell Best Supporting Actress 1
30. Waves Best Supporting Actor 1
31. Just Mercy Best Supporting Actor 2
32. Honey Boy Best Supporting Actor 1
33. Toy Story 4 Best Adapted Screenplay 3
34. A Hidden Life Best Cinematography 1
35. Ad Astra Best Cinematography 4
36. Portrait of a Lady on Fire Best Cinematography 1
37. Les Miserables Best International Film 1
38. Atlantics Best International Film 1
39. Honeyland Best International Film 2
40. The Painted Bird Best International Film 1
41. Beanpole Best International Film 1
42. Corpus Christi Best International Film 1
43. Frozen II Best Animated Feature 3
44. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Best Animated Feature 1
45. Missing Link Best Animated Feature 1
46. I Lost My Body Best Animated Feature 1
47. Abominable Best Animated Feature 1
48. Klaus Best Animated Feature 1
49. Spies in Disguise Best Animated Feature 1
50. Weathering with You Best Animated Feature 1
51. Apollo 11 Best Documentary Feature 1
52. American Factory Best Documentary Feature 1
53. For Sama Best Documentary Feature 1
54. The Cave Best Documentary Feature 1
55. One Child Nation Best Documentary Feature 1
56. Maiden Best Documentary Feature 1
57. The Biggest Little Farm Best Documentary Feature 1
58. The Edge of Democracy Best Documentary Feature 1
59. Knock Down the House Best Documentary Feature 1
60. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Best Visual Effects 4
61. The Lion King Best Visual Effects 2
62. Alita: Battle Angel Best Visual Effects 1
63. Captain Marvel Best Visual Effects 1
64. Cats Best Visual Effects 1
65. Gemini Man Best Visual Effects 1
66. Downton Abbey Best Production Design 3
67. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1
68. Motherless Brooklyn Best Score 2
69. Wild Rose Best Song 1
70. Aladdin Best Song 1
71. Breakthrough Best Song 1
72. The Black Godfather Best Song 1