A year ago, I made a list of every movie contending for an Oscar so I could watch as many as I could in theaters. And it worked! I watched lots of movies I might have otherwise skipped. And by Oscar night, I’d seen every nominated movie but one!1

I know the official nominees will be announced soon, but I find this stuff fascinating anyways. It’s always interesting to see how many of the actual nominees the experts predict correctly!

I again used odds data from Gold Derby’s experts to calculate “points” for each movie with a chance of earning a nomination. This time, I didn’t make the mistake of trying to actually calculate the data in Markdown tables this time. Who would’ve guessed that actual spreadsheet software would be better for doing lots of calculations? :-D

If you’re curious about the exact methodology I used, you can read my post from last year. Otherwise, let’s move on to the (hopeful) nominees!

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Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on 1/20 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like last year, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability, calculated correctly this year! It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, it’s the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99

By Movie

Here’s the list of movies sorted alphabetically. If you want to skip this, you can just skip down to the final list.

  • All the Money in the World (8.65 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer) (14/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actress (Michelle Williams) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Baby Driver (27.47 total points)
    • 12.50 pts (4th) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Sound Mixing (10/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Film Editing (16/1 odds)
  • Battle of the Sexes (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actress (Emma Stone) (100/1 odds)
  • Beauty and the Beast (45.73 total points)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Costume Design (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Song (Evermore) (13/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (9th) for Best Sound Mixing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Blade Runner 2049 (136.12 total points)
    • 34.48 pts (1st) for Best Cinematography (19/10 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Production Design (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Visual Effects (7/2 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Editing (4/1 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Mixing (4/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (4th) for Best Film Editing (9/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • Boss Baby (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Call Me By Your Name (116.50 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Adapted Screenplay (3/2 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet) (7/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Song (The Mystery of Love) (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (7th) for Best Picture (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer) (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Cinematography (10/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg) (12/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Director (Luca Guadagnino) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Captain Underpants (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Coco (78.80 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Animated Feature (3/2 odds)
    • 36.36 pts (1st) for Best Song (Remember Me) (7/4 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (9th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
  • Cries From Syria (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Song (Prayers for This World) (100/1 odds)
  • Darkest Hour (128.78 total points)
    • 52.38 pts (1st) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/11 odds)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Actor (Gary Oldman) (17/10 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Costume Design (17/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Cinematography (14/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Score (14/1 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (9th) for Best Picture (25/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Director (Joe Wright) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actress (Kristin Scott Thomas) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Despicable Me 3 (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Downsizing (4.44 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau) (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
  • Dunkirk (231.05 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Sound Editing (3/2 odds)
    • 38.46 pts (1st) for Best Film Editing (8/5 odds)
    • 35.71 pts (1st) for Best Sound Mixing (9/5 odds)
    • 26.67 pts (2nd) for Best Cinematography (11/4 odds)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Score (14/5 odds)
    • 23.08 pts (2nd) for Best Director (Christopher Nolan) (10/3 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Production Design (11/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Visual Effects (13/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Ferdinand (7.69 total points)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Animated Feature (12/1 odds)
  • Fifty Shades Darker (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Song (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) (100/1 odds)
  • Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Actress (Annette Bening) (100/1 odds)
  • Get Out (77.11 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (1st) for Best Original Screenplay (5/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Film Editing (11/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Director (Jordan Peele) (17/2 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Actor (Daniel Kaluuya) (17/2 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Girls Trip (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actress (Tiffany Haddish) (66/1 odds)
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (17.66 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (6th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • I, Tonya (53.42 total points)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actress (Allison Janney) (12/5 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Actress (Margot Robbie) (9/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (11th) for Best Picture (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • In This Corner of The World (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Lady Bird (107.03 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf) (5/2 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Original Screenplay (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actress (Saoirse Ronan) (7/2 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Director (Greta Gerwig) (5/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (2nd) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Film Editing (80/1 odds)
  • Logan (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
  • Loving Vincent (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • Marshall (6.67 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Song (Stand Up for Something) (14/1 odds)
  • Mary and the Witch’s Flower (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Animated Feature (40/1 odds)
  • Molly’s Game (19.15 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (5/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (6th) for Best Actress (Jessica Chastain) (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (15th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Mother! (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Mudbound (43.63 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (9/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige) (8/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Song (Mighty River) (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Cinematography (18/1 odds)
    • 1.96 pts (12nd) for Best Picture (50/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actor (Jason Mitchell) (80/1 odds)
  • Murder on the Orient Express (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Costume Design (66/1 odds)
  • Novitiate (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Supporting Actress (Melissa Leo) (100/1 odds)
  • Okja (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • Phantom Thread (79.89 total points)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Costume Design (17/10 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Score (5/1 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) (11/2 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Production Design (16/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (13th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Roman J. Israel, Esq. (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actor (Denzel Washington) (100/1 odds)
  • Split (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actor (James McAvoy) (100/1 odds)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (41.35 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Visual Effects (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Sound Mixing (17/2 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
  • Stronger (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal) (100/1 odds)
  • The Beguiled (3.67 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Costume Design (80/1 odds)
  • The Big Sick (26.11 total points)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actress (Holly Hunter) (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Original Screenplay (11/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (10th) for Best Picture (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actor (Ray Romano) (100/1 odds)
  • The Breadwinner (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • The Disaster Artist (24.48 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (4th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Actor (James Franco) (10/1 odds)
  • The Florida Project (31.65 total points)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe) (14/5 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (8th) for Best Picture (22/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • The Greatest Showman (39.62 total points)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Song (This Is Me) (4/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Costume Design (13/2 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (7th) for Best Production Design (25/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
  • The Lego Batman Movie (11.76 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Animated Feature (15/2 odds)
  • The Post (53.04 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Actress (Meryl Streep) (15/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (6th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Score (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Director (Steven Spielberg) (14/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Original Screenplay (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Actor (Tom Hanks) (18/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Film Editing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Production Design (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • The Promise (1.23 total points)
    • 1.23 pts (7th) for Best Song (The Promise (song)) (80/1 odds)
  • The Shape of Water (235.77 total points)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Director (Guillermo Del Toro) (21/10 odds)
    • 30.77 pts (1st) for Best Production Design (9/4 odds)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Score (12/5 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (3rd) for Best Actress (Sally Hawkins) (4/1 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Cinematography (9/2 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Film Editing (9/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Mixing (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Picture (7/1 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins) (7/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Original Screenplay (8/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Visual Effects (8/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Costume Design (9/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (124.98 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Actress (Frances McDormand) (15/8 odds)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) (21/10 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (3rd) for Best Original Screenplay (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (1st) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Director (Martin McDonagh) (11/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Film Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actor (Woody Harrelson) (28/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Victoria and Abdul (6.66 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Costume Design (28/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (5th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (46.37 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Visual Effects (15/8 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Sound Mixing (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder (21.01 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (2nd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (5th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (22/1 odds)
  • Wonder Wheel (1.98 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actress (Kate Winslet) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder Woman (8.88 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Sound Editing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (14th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonderstruck (2.97 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)

Final List

And now, the final list! Interestingly enough, some of the movies with the most aggregate points are not strong contenders for Best Picture this year. So much like Jackie last year, they are “punching above their weight” due to strong contention for technical awards.

Notably, this is a list of English feature-length films (i.e. movies generally available in US theaters). So it does not include documentaries, foreign films, or any of the short films.

Num Points Movie Categories (Pts/Cat)
1. 235.77 pts The Shape of Water 14 (16.84)
2. 231.05 pts Dunkirk 10 (23.11)
3. 136.12 pts Blade Runner 2049 9 (15.12)
4. 128.78 pts Darkest Hour 11 (11.71)
5. 124.98 pts Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9 (13.89)
6. 116.50 pts Call Me By Your Name 9 (12.94)
7. 107.03 pts Lady Bird 6 (17.84)
8. 79.89 pts Phantom Thread 7 (11.41)
9. 78.80 pts Coco 3 (26.27)
10. 77.11 pts Get Out 6 (12.85)
11. 53.42 pts I, Tonya 6 (8.90)
12. 53.04 pts The Post 9 (5.89)
13. 46.37 pts War for the Planet of the Apes 5 (9.27)
14. 45.73 pts Beauty and the Beast 5 (9.15)
15. 43.63 pts Mudbound 6 (7.27)
16. 41.35 pts Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4 (10.34)
17. 39.62 pts The Greatest Showman 4 (9.90)
18. 31.65 pts The Florida Project 3 (10.55)
19. 27.47 pts Baby Driver 3 (9.16)
20. 26.11 pts The Big Sick 4 (6.53)
21. 24.48 pts The Disaster Artist 2 (12.24)
22. 21.01 pts Wonder 2 (10.51)
23. 19.15 pts Molly’s Game 3 (6.38)
24. 18.18 pts The Breadwinner 1 (18.18)
25. 18.18 pts Loving Vincent 1 (18.18)
26. 17.66 pts Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 (8.83)
27. 11.76 pts The Lego Batman Movie 1 (11.76)
28. 8.88 pts Wonder Woman 7 (1.27)
29. 8.65 pts All the Money in the World 3 (2.88)
30. 7.69 pts Ferdinand 1 (7.69)
31. 6.67 pts Marshall 1 (6.67)
32. 6.66 pts Victoria and Abdul 4 (1.67)
33. 4.44 pts Downsizing 2 (2.22)
34. 3.67 pts The Beguiled 2 (1.84)
35. 2.97 pts Wonderstruck 3 (0.99)
36. 2.44 pts Logan 1 (2.44)
37. 2.44 pts Mary and the Witch’s Flower 1 (2.44)
38. 1.98 pts Wonder Wheel 2 (0.99)
39. 1.49 pts Murder on the Orient Express 1 (1.49)
40. 1.49 pts Girls Trip 1 (1.49)
41. 1.23 pts The Promise 1 (1.23)
42. 0.99 pts Battle of the Sexes 1 (0.99)
43. 0.99 pts Mother! 1 (0.99)
44. 0.99 pts Roman J. Israel, Esq. 1 (0.99)
45. 0.99 pts Okja 1 (0.99)
46. 0.99 pts Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 1 (0.99)
47. 0.99 pts Stronger 1 (0.99)
48. 0.99 pts Novitiate 1 (0.99)
49. 0.99 pts Captain Underpants 1 (0.99)
50. 0.99 pts Despicable Me 3 1 (0.99)
51. 0.99 pts Split 1 (0.99)
52. 0.99 pts Cries From Syria 1 (0.99)
53. 0.99 pts Fifty Shades Darker 1 (0.99)
54. 0.99 pts Boss Baby 1 (0.99)
55. 0.99 pts In This Corner of The World 1 (0.99)

  1. The only movie I missed: the 8-hour OJ Simpson documentary. But you better believe I’m going to complete the Oscars Death Race this year! ↩︎