The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier this week. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In eight (!) categories this year, there were movies or people nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

Remember, this data was originally compiled a month before the nominations were announced - a lot can change in that time!

Shortcuts

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 30 21 13/2 13.33
2 Roma 30 3 15/2 11.76
3 Green Book 30 5 15/2 11.76
4 The Favourite 29 0 17/2 10.53
5 Black Panther 27 1 10/1 9.09
6 If Beale Street Could Talk 28 0 21/2 8.70
7 BlacKkKlansman 26 0 11/1 8.33
8 Vice 27 0 23/2 8.00
9 First Man 21 0 18/1 5.26
10 Mary Poppins Returns 17 0 22/1 4.35
11 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7 0 52/1 1.89
12 First Reformed 4 0 75/1 1.32
13 A Quiet Place 4 0 92/1 1.08
14 Crazy Rich Asians 4 0 95/1 1.04
15 Widows 3 0 100/1 0.99
16 Eighth Grade 4 0 100/1 0.99
17 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 100/1 0.99
18 The Rider 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 Beautiful Boy 1 0 100/1 0.99
20 Leave No Trace 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) 30 27 16/5 23.81
2 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 2 9/2 18.18
3 BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) 23 1 6/1 14.29
4 The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) 21 0 13/2 13.33
5 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 16 0 9/1 10.00
6 Green Book (Peter Farrelly) 9 0 16/1 5.88
7 First Man (Damien Chazelle) 8 0 20/1 4.76
8 Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) 5 0 30/1 3.23
9 Vice (Adam McKay) 5 0 33/1 2.94
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) 28 16 19/5 20.83
2 The Favourite (Olivia Colman) 30 6 39/10 20.41
3 The Wife (Glenn Close) 28 6 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) 17 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) 10 0 15/1 6.25
7 Widows (Viola Davis) 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Hereditary (Toni Collette) 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Cold War (Joanna Kulig) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 15 19/5 20.83
2 Vice (Christian Bale) 29 7 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) 29 5 4/1 20.00
4 Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) 21 1 13/2 13.33
6 BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) 8 0 20/1 4.76
7 At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe) 5 0 33/1 2.94
8 First Man (Ryan Gosling) 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) 29 21 7/2 22.22
2 Vice (Amy Adams) 26 7 9/2 18.18
3 The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) 27 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Favourite (Emma Stone) 26 1 5/1 16.67
5 First Man (Claire Foy) 19 0 15/2 11.76
6 Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) 6 0 28/1 3.45
7 Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) 5 1 30/1 3.23
8 Roma (Marina de Tavira) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) 2 0 82/1 1.20
12 Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Green Book (Linda Cardellini) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 What They Had (Blythe Danner) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Green Book (Mahershala Ali) 30 16 7/2 22.22
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) 30 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) 27 3 9/2 18.18
4 Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) 23 4 11/2 15.38
5 BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) 16 1 9/1 10.00
6 Vice (Sam Rockwell) 9 0 18/1 5.26
7 Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) 7 1 22/1 4.35
8 Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Vice (Steve Carell) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 29 15 37/10 21.28
2 Roma 29 8 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book 26 4 5/1 16.67
4 First Reformed 23 2 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 20 0 7/1 12.50
6 Eighth Grade 15 1 19/2 9.52
7 A Quiet Place 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Sorry to Bother You 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Capernaum 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Private Life 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 BlacKkKlansman 27 20 19/5 20.83
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 29 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born 28 2 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 28 1 9/2 18.18
5 First Man 10 0 15/1 6.25
6 Leave No Trace 7 0 22/1 4.35
7 Black Panther 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Widows 4 0 40/1 2.44
9 The Death of Stalin 4 0 40/1 2.44
10 Beautiful Boy 3 2 44/1 2.22
11 Crazy Rich Asians 3 0 54/1 1.82
12 Wildlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 29 27 16/5 23.81
2 The Favourite 26 1 5/1 16.67
3 First Man 25 1 5/1 16.67
4 If Beale Street Could Talk 22 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Black Panther 12 0 12/1 7.69
7 Cold War 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Rider 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Widows 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Private War 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Never Look Away.

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 26 11 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 22 12 9/2 18.18
3 A Star Is Born 21 2 11/2 15.38
4 The Favourite 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 13 0 21/2 8.70
6 Widows 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Black Panther 9 2 14/1 6.67
8 Green Book 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 22 July 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 BlacKkKlansman 2 0 70/1 1.41
11 Destroyer 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Quiet Place 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 If Beale Street Could Talk 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 28 17 17/5 22.73
2 Black Panther 28 9 37/10 21.28
3 Mary Poppins Returns 27 1 9/2 18.18
4 Mary Queen of Scots 26 1 9/2 18.18
5 Colette 7 0 20/1 4.76
6 Crazy Rich Asians 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Fantastic Beasts 2 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 A Star Is Born 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 50/1 1.96
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Suspiria 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Vice 9 8 31/20 39.22
2 Black Panther 6 2 4/1 20.00
3 Border 4 0 17/2 10.53
4 Suspiria 3 0 11/1 8.33
5 Stan and Ollie 3 0 11/1 8.33
6 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 23/2 8.00
7 Bohemian Rhapsody 2 0 18/1 5.26

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 28 15 17/5 22.73
2 The Favourite 27 11 37/10 21.28
3 First Man 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 12 0 23/2 8.00
6 Roma 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 Crazy Rich Asians 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Isle of Dogs 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Fantastic Beasts 2 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Shallow) 12 12 16/5 23.81
2 Black Panther (All the Stars) 11 0 9/2 18.18
3 RBG (I’ll Fight) 10 0 11/2 15.38
4 Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) 9 0 6/1 14.29
5 Dumplin’ (Girl in the Movies) 7 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 Boy Erased (Revelation) 4 0 16/1 5.88
8 Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) 2 0 33/1 2.94
9 Quincy (Keep Reachin’) 1 0 66/1 1.49

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 12 5 18/5 21.74
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 12 4 19/5 20.83
3 Black Panther 10 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 9 1 6/1 14.29
5 Isle of Dogs 8 0 7/1 12.50
6 BlacKkKlansman 4 0 16/1 5.88
7 A Quiet Place 3 0 22/1 4.35
8 Vice 2 1 28/1 3.45

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 Black Panther 27 3 39/10 20.41
3 A Quiet Place 26 4 4/1 20.00
4 A Star Is Born 25 1 9/2 18.18
5 Roma 21 3 11/2 15.38
6 Mission Impossible: Fallout 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Incredibles 2 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Bohemian Rhapsody 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 27 8 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 25 12 4/1 20.00
3 Black Panther 25 3 9/2 18.18
4 A Quiet Place 20 2 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 Bohemian Rhapsody 12 0 11/1 8.33
7 Roma 8 2 16/1 5.88
8 The Favourite 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Mission Impossible: Fallout 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 11 10 16/5 23.81
2 Ready Player One 11 0 4/1 20.00
3 First Man 10 0 9/2 18.18
4 Avengers: Infinity War 8 1 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Welcome to Marwen 6 0 9/1 10.00
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 0 58/1 1.69
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 0 60/1 1.64

Not predicted, but nominated: Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Isle of Dogs 28 3 4/1 20.00
2 Incredibles 2 26 11 4/1 20.00
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 24 13 9/2 18.18
4 Ralph Breaks the Internet 27 0 9/2 18.18
5 Mirai 24 0 11/2 15.38
6 Smallfoot 5 1 28/1 3.45
7 Early Man 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Tito and the Birds 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Grinch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 11 5 71/20 21.98
2 Free Solo 10 2 9/2 18.18
3 RBG 9 4 5/1 16.67
4 Three Identical Strangers 8 0 6/1 14.29
5 Minding the Gap 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Hale County This Morning, This Evening 3 0 20/1 4.76
7 Dark Money 2 0 30/1 3.23
8 Shirkers 2 0 30/1 3.23
9 Crime + Punishment 1 0 58/1 1.69
10 Of Fathers and Sons 1 0 60/1 1.64
11 The Silence of Others 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 10 10 18/5 21.74
2 Cold War 11 1 39/10 20.41
3 Capernaum 11 0 9/2 18.18
4 Shoplifters 10 0 5/1 16.67
5 Never Look Away 6 0 9/1 10.00
6 Burning 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 The Guilty 2 0 28/1 3.45
8 Birds of Passage 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Bao 8 6 39/10 20.41
2 Animal Behaviour 8 0 5/1 16.67
3 Lost and Found 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Bilby 7 1 11/2 15.38
5 Weekends 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Bird Karma 3 1 14/1 6.67
7 Age of Sail 2 0 25/1 3.85
8 Pepe le Morse 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 One Small Step 1 0 46/1 2.13

Not predicted, but nominated: Late Afternoon.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Sheep 9 6 69/20 22.47
2 Zion 8 1 9/2 18.18
3 End Game 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Women of the Gulag 8 0 5/1 16.67
5 Period. End of Sentence. 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 63 Boycott 2 1 20/1 4.76
7 A Night at the Garden 2 1 20/1 4.76
8 Los Comandos 1 0 48/1 2.04

Not predicted, but nominated: Lifeboat.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Marguerite 9 1 19/5 20.83
2 Caroline 8 6 4/1 20.00
3 Icare 7 1 11/2 15.38
4 Skin 7 0 6/1 14.29
5 Detainment 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Fauve 3 0 15/1 6.25
7 May Day 2 0 22/1 4.35
8 Chuchotage 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 Mother 1 0 48/1 2.04