Oscars checklist 2022: The snubs and surprises

It’s Oscar nominations day! As an avid Oscars Death Racer, this is like the Super Bowl for us.1

As is tradition, I’ve annotated the predictions data from my last post because I find it interesting to see what all the snubs and surprises actually are.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. There was only one nomination, in Best Supporting Actress, that no one expected to be nominated just two short weeks ago (Judi Dench for Belfast).2

In a refreshing change, it appears that 4(!) international films are nominated in categories outside Best International Film:

  • Drive My Car (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Film)
  • The Worst Person in the World (Original Screenplay, International Film)
  • Parallel Mothers (Actress, Score)
  • Flee (the trifecta: Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Film!)

Shortcuts

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 12 7/1 12.5
2 Belfast 26 7 15/2 11.76
3 West Side Story 26 4 8/1 11.11
4 King Richard 26 2 17/2 10.53
5 Dune 26 2 9/1 10
6 Licorice Pizza 25 0 10/1 9.09
7 CODA 25 0 21/2 8.7
8 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 18/1 5.26
9 Don’t Look Up 16 0 20/1 4.76
10 tick, tick… Boom! 14 0 25/1 3.85
11 The Lost Daughter 7 0 46/1 2.13
12 Nightmare Alley 6 0 48/1 2.04
13 Spider-Man: No Way Home 5 0 66/1 1.49
14 Drive My Car 4 0 78/1 1.27
15 Spencer 3 0 97/1 1.02
16 Being the Ricardos 3 0 100/1 0.99
17 Parallel Mothers 2 0 100/1 0.99
18 Cyrano 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 House of Gucci 2 0 100/1 0.99
20 No Time to Die 2 0 100/1 0.99
21 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
22 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) 27 25 16/5 23.81
2 Dune (Denis Villeneuve) 23 1 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) 20 1 6/1 14.29
4 West Side Story (Steven Spielberg) 20 0 6/1 14.29
5 Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) 18 0 7/1 12.5
6 Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 CODA (Sian Heder) 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro) 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) 2 0 75/1 1.32
12 Cyrano (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Titane (Julia Ducournau) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman) 26 6 4/1 20
2 Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman) 21 9 5/1 16.67
3 Spencer (Kristen Stewart) 21 8 5/1 16.67
4 The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain) 22 2 11/2 15.38
5 House of Gucci (Lady Gaga) 20 1 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers (Penelope Cruz) 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Respect (Jennifer Hudson) 5 0 28/1 3.45
8 West Side Story (Rachel Zegler) 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza (Alana Haim) 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 CODA (Emilia Jones) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Frances McDormand) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 King Richard (Will Smith) 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch) 27 5 19/5 20.83
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Denzel Washington) 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield) 25 2 9/2 18.18
5 Cyrano (Peter Dinklage) 15 0 9/1 10
6 Being the Ricardos (Javier Bardem) 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Nightmare Alley (Bradley Cooper) 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Don’t Look Up (Leonardo DiCaprio) 2 0 72/1 1.37
9 Pig (Nicolas Cage) 2 0 75/1 1.32
10 Jockey (Clifton Collins, Jr) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Dune (Timothee Chalamet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Red Rocket (Simon Rex) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 West Side Story (Ariana DeBose) 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 The Power of the Dog (Kirsten Dunst) 27 6 39/10 20.41
3 King Richard (Aunjanue Ellis) 24 3 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast (Caitriona Balfe) 22 0 11/2 15.38
5 Passing (Ruth Negga) 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 CODA (Marlee Matlin) 7 1 20/1 4.76
7 Mass (Ann Dowd) 6 1 22/1 4.35
8 West Side Story (Rita Moreno) 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 The Lost Daughter (Jessie Buckley) 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Don’t Look Up (Cate Blanchett) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Power of the Dog (Judi Dench).

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Kodi Smit-McPhee) 27 20 10/3 23.08
2 CODA (Troy Kotsur) 23 3 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Ciaran Hinds) 17 1 7/1 12.5
4 Licorice Pizza (Bradley Cooper) 14 0 19/2 9.52
5 House of Gucci (Jared Leto) 13 1 19/2 9.52
6 Belfast (Jamie Dornan) 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 West Side Story (Mike Faist) 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Power of the Dog (Jesse Plemons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
9 Being the Ricardos (J.K. Simmons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
10 Mass (Jason Isaacs) 4 0 37/1 2.63
11 The Tender Bar (Ben Affleck) 4 0 37/1 2.63
12 The Humans (Richard Jenkins) 3 0 48/1 2.04
13 Pig (Alex Wolff) 1 1 100/1 0.99
14 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Corey Hawkins) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 The French Dispatch (Jeffrey Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Licorice Pizza 26 15 37/10 21.28
2 Belfast 24 9 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up 20 1 6/1 14.29
5 Being the Ricardos 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Mass 4 0 35/1 2.78
8 C’mon C’mon 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 The Worst Person in the World 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Hand of God 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Hero 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 22 82/25 23.36
2 The Lost Daughter 26 4 4/1 20
3 CODA 26 0 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 17 0 15/2 11.76
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Drive My Car 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 Dune 7 1 20/1 4.76
8 Nightmare Alley 6 0 22/1 4.35
9 Passing 4 0 35/1 2.78
10 Cyrano 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Humans 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Drive My Car 25 22 82/25 23.36
2 Flee 25 0 9/2 18.18
3 A Hero 23 0 9/2 18.18
4 The Worst Person in the World 22 3 9/2 18.18
5 The Hand of God 22 0 5/1 16.67
6 I’m Your Man 3 0 44/1 2.22
7 Compartment No. 6 2 0 68/1 1.45
8 Prayers for the Stolen 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Lamb 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Luca 26 8 19/5 20.83
2 Encanto 25 10 39/10 20.41
3 The Mitchells vs the Machines 25 3 4/1 20
4 Flee 23 4 9/2 18.18
5 Raya and the Last Dragon 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Belle 6 0 22/1 4.35
7 Sing 2 4 1 30/1 3.23
8 The Summit of the Gods 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Summer of Soul 25 14 7/2 22.22
2 Flee 24 8 39/10 20.41
3 The Rescue 22 0 5/1 16.67
4 Procession 15 0 8/1 11.11
5 Ascension 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 Attica 6 1 20/1 4.76
7 The First Wave 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Julia 4 1 30/1 3.23
9 The Velvet Underground 4 1 30/1 3.23
10 In the Same Breath 3 0 44/1 2.22
11 Writing with Fire 2 0 66/1 1.49
12 Faya Dayi 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 19 69/20 22.47
2 The Power of the Dog 27 4 39/10 20.41
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth 25 2 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 21 2 11/2 15.38
5 Belfast 19 0 13/2 13.33
6 Nightmare Alley 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 The Green Knight 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Spencer 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Cyrano 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 13 71/20 21.98
2 The Power of the Dog 25 2 9/2 18.18
3 Belfast 21 6 5/1 16.67
4 West Side Story 16 3 15/2 11.76
5 Licorice Pizza 13 1 10/1 9.09
6 Don’t Look Up 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Nightmare Alley 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 King Richard 2 1 60/1 1.64
9 Last Night in Soho 2 0 68/1 1.45
10 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 tick, tick… Boom! 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 CODA 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 25 16/5 23.81
2 Spider-Man: No Way Home 23 0 5/1 16.67
3 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 23 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Matrix Resurrections 21 1 11/2 15.38
5 Godzilla vs. Kong 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Eternals 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Free Guy 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 No Time to Die 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Black Widow 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 Ghostbusters: Afterlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 Nightmare Alley 24 6 9/2 18.18
3 West Side Story 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 The French Dispatch 19 2 6/1 14.29
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Cyrano 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Spencer 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Belfast 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Cruella 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Power of the Dog 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Licorice Pizza 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Last Duel 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Cruella 25 16 18/5 21.74
2 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
3 Dune 21 3 11/2 15.38
4 Spencer 18 4 6/1 14.29
5 West Side Story 15 1 8/1 11.11
6 Nightmare Alley 13 0 10/1 9.09
7 Cyrano 7 1 18/1 5.26
8 The French Dispatch 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Coming 2 America 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Lost Daughter 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Eyes of Tammy Faye 24 17 71/20 21.98
2 Dune 25 4 39/10 20.41
3 Cruella 24 3 4/1 20
4 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
5 West Side Story 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 The Suicide Squad 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Nightmare Alley 4 0 33/1 2.94
8 Coming 2 America 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Cyrano 2 0 68/1 1.45

Best Sound

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 21 82/25 23.36
2 No Time to Die 27 0 4/1 20
3 West Side Story 24 5 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast 18 0 7/1 12.5
5 tick, tick… Boom! 17 0 15/2 11.76
6 The Power of the Dog 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 A Quiet Place Part II 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Spider-Man: No Way Home 4 1 33/1 2.94
9 Last Night in Soho 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 25 13 7/2 22.22
2 Dune 24 11 19/5 20.83
3 The French Dispatch 20 1 11/2 15.38
4 Don’t Look Up 17 0 7/1 12.5
5 Parallel Mothers 11 0 11/1 8.33
6 Spencer 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Encanto 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 No Time to Die 4 0 33/1 2.94
9 The Harder They Fall 3 0 46/1 2.13
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 No Time to Die (“No Time to Die”) 25 13 71/20 21.98
2 Encanto (“Dos Oruguitas”) 22 4 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard (“Be Alive”) 21 6 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up (“Just Look Up”) 20 1 11/2 15.38
5 Respect (“Here I Am Singing My Way Home”) 11 0 23/2 8
6 The Harder They Fall (“Guns Go Bang”) 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Belfast (“Down to Joy”) 7 0 18/1 5.26
8 CODA (“Beyond the Shore”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 Annette (“So May We Start”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
10 Bruised (“Automatic Woman”) 2 0 68/1 1.45
11 Sing 2 (“Your Song Saved My Life”) 1 1 100/1 0.99
12 Four Good Days (“Somehow You Do”) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Dear Evan Hansen (“The Anonymous Ones”) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Long Goodbye 22 4 39/10 20.41
2 When the Sun Sets 19 12 4/1 20
3 Tala’vision 18 2 11/2 15.38
4 Frimas 16 1 6/1 14.29
5 Censor of Dreams 15 0 7/1 12.5
6 You’re Dead Helen 7 0 16/1 5.88
7 The Criminals 3 2 33/1 2.94
8 Under the Heavens 2 0 54/1 1.82
9 Les Grandes Claques 2 0 54/1 1.82
10 The Dress 1 1 90/1 1.1
11 Distances 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Stenofonen 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Ala Kachuu: Take and Run 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 On My Mind 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Please Hold 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Us Again 20 15 19/5 20.83
2 The Windshield Wiper 18 0 5/1 16.67
3 Step Into the River 16 1 6/1 14.29
4 Only a Child 16 1 13/2 13.33
5 Robin Robin 15 1 13/2 13.33
6 Namoo 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 The Musician 6 0 18/1 5.26
8 Affairs of the Art 3 1 35/1 2.78
9 Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice 2 1 48/1 2.04
10 Flowing Home 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 Bestia 2 0 58/1 1.69
12 Boxballet 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Mum is Pouring Rain 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Bad Seeds 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Souvenir Souvenir 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Three Songs for Benazir 20 11 4/1 20
2 The Queen of Basketball 19 6 9/2 18.18
3 Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker 17 2 11/2 15.38
4 Terror Contagion 17 0 6/1 14.29
5 When We Were Bullies 16 1 13/2 13.33
6 Audible 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis 5 0 22/1 4.35
8 Lead Me Home 2 0 56/1 1.75
9 Day of Rage 2 0 58/1 1.69
10 Lynching Postcards 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 The Facility 2 0 60/1 1.64
12 Takeover 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 A Broken House 1 0 100/1 0.99
  1. Which is kind of weird to say given that the Super Bowl is this coming Sunday… ↩︎

  2. Which is criminal, given that Caitriona Balfe had a much larger role and was much better in that film! ↩︎

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Oscars checklist 2022: The actual nominees (53 films!)

As an avid Oscars Death Racer (trying to watch all movies nominated in all categories), I put together the list of all 53 films nominated for an Oscar this year. Instead of just sorting by number of nominations, I like to group them by their “highest” nominated category, which I find a more useful way of organizing the list.

In a new addition this year, I’ve also added streaming links for every film, if I could find them on JustWatch. I prefer to watch everything in theaters, but hopefully this helps some of the rest of you watch these great films!

As of today, here’s where I stand on the 53 total films:

  • 30 feature films already seen. I saw 27 of these in theaters and 3 at home.
  • 8 feature films not seen yet. These are mostly documentary and international films, some of which haven’t been released in theaters or VOD yet.
  • 15 short films. I put off watching these until a week or two before the ceremony, when they’re released in theaters. (If you’ve never seen a series of short films in a theater, it’s a great experience!)

The big ceremony is on March 27, 2022 - looks like I’ve got plenty of time to finish the Oscars Death Race again this year!

The big list

Sort Film Highest Category Total Categories Where to Watch My status
1 The Power of the Dog Best Picture 13 Netflix Watched in theaters
2 Dune Best Picture 10 VOD Watched in theaters
3 West Side Story Best Picture 7 TBD Watched in theaters
4 Belfast Best Picture 6 VOD Watched in theaters
5 King Richard Best Picture 6 VOD Watched in theaters
6 Don’t Look Up Best Picture 4 Netflix Watched in theaters
7 Drive My Car Best Picture 4 TBD Watched in theaters
8 Nightmare Alley Best Picture 4 Hulu or HBO Watched in theaters
9 CODA Best Picture 3 Apple TV+ Watched in theaters
10 Licorice Pizza Best Picture 3 TBD Watched in theaters
11 Being the Ricardos Best Actress 3 Amazon Prime Watched in theaters
12 The Lost Daughter Best Actress 3 Netflix Watched in theaters
13 Parallel Mothers Best Actress 2 TBD Watched in theaters
14 The Eyes of Tammy Faye Best Actress 2 HBO Max Watched in theaters
15 Spencer Best Actress 1 VOD Watched in theaters
16 The Tragedy of Macbeth Best Actor 3 Apple TV+ Watched in theaters
17 tick, tick… Boom! Best Actor 2 Netflix Watched in theaters
18 The Worst Person in the World Best Original Screenplay 2 TBD Not released yet
19 Flee Best International Film 3 Hulu Watched in theaters
20 Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom Best International Film 1 Spectrum ($) Not watched
21 The Hand of God Best International Film 1 Netflix Watched in theaters
22 Encanto Best Animated Feature 3 Disney+ Watched in theaters
23 Luca Best Animated Feature 1 Disney+ Watched at home
24 Raya and the Last Dragon Best Animated Feature 1 Disney+ Watched at home
25 The Mitchells vs the Machines Best Animated Feature 1 Netflix Not watched
26 Ascension Best Documentary Feature 1 Paramount+ Not watched
27 Attica Best Documentary Feature 1 Amazon Prime Not watched
28 Summer of Soul Best Documentary Feature 1 Hulu Not watched
29 Writing with Fire Best Documentary Feature 1 TBD Not released yet
30 No Time to Die Best Visual Effects 3 VOD Watched in theaters
31 Free Guy Best Visual Effects 1 Disney+ (2/23 Watched in theaters
32 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Best Visual Effects 1 Disney+ Watched in theaters
33 Spider-Man: No Way Home Best Visual Effects 1 TBD Watched in theaters
34 Cruella Best Costume Design 2 Disney+ Watched in theaters
35 Cyrano Best Costume Design 1 TBD Not released yet
36 Coming 2 America Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1 Amazon Prime Watched at home
37 House of Gucci Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1 VOD Watched in theaters
38 Four Good Days Best Song 1 Hulu or Kanopy Watched in theaters
39 Ala Kachuu: Take and Run Best Live Action Short 1 - Short film
40 On My Mind Best Live Action Short 1 - Short film
41 Please Hold Best Live Action Short 1 - Short film
42 The Dress Best Live Action Short 1 YouTube Short film
43 The Long Goodbye Best Live Action Short 1 YouTube Short film
44 Affairs of the Art Best Animated Short 1 - Short film
45 Bestia Best Animated Short 1 Web Short film
46 Boxballet Best Animated Short 1 - Short film
47 Robin Robin Best Animated Short 1 - Short film
48 The Windshield Wiper Best Animated Short 1 YouTube Short film
49 Audible Best Documentary Short 1 Netflix Short film
50 Lead Me Home Best Documentary Short 1 Netflix Short film
51 The Queen of Basketball Best Documentary Short 1 Vimeo Short film
52 Three Songs for Benazir Best Documentary Short 1 Netflix Short film
53 When We Were Bullies Best Documentary Short 1 Web Short film
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Oscars checklist 2022: The possible nominees

As you may know from some of my past posts, I’m a bit a of a movie enthusiast. So much so that I enjoy trying to complete the Oscars Death Race each year - watching every movie nominated in every category at the Oscars before the big ceremony. I try to take it one step further and watch them all in theaters, if possible.1

To help me with this, I make a list early each year of the movies most likely to be nominated to help ensure I can watch them before they leave theaters. It’s not always perfect, but it helps me get a big headstart.2

Using data from GoldDerby, it looks like there are about 78 feature films that have a chance of being nominated this year!


The big list

To make this list, I downloaded GoldDerby’s list of movies with a chance of being nominated in any category, removed all duplicates and short films, and sorted it by highest category. I also included the “points” total for each movie, which tells you how strong of a contender it is across all categories. For more explanation of the math behind that, check the next section with a snapshot of the movies and odds in all 23 categories listed below.

Of the 56 I’ve seen: I saw 53 in theaters and 3 at home.3

Of the 22 I haven’t seen: 4 have not been released yet4, 2 had a very limited theatrical release but I missed them5, 5 are now on my watchlist, and 11 are in minor categories that I don’t prioritize right now (Best Documentary or Best Song).

Sort Film Highest Possible Category Total Possible Categories Points Status
1. The Power of the Dog Best Picture 12 194.88 Watched (theater)
2. Belfast Best Picture 11 129.05 Watched (theater)
3. West Side Story Best Picture 13 150.58 Watched (theater)
4. King Richard Best Picture 7 90.43 Watched (theater)
5. Dune Best Picture 12 203.39 Watched (theater)
6. Licorice Pizza Best Picture 8 65.92 Watched (theater)
7. CODA Best Picture 8 54.55 Watched (theater)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth Best Picture 11 67.72 Watched (theater)
9. Don’t Look Up Best Picture 9 58.41 Watched (theater)
10. tick, tick… Boom! Best Picture 4 34.78 Watched (theater)
11. The Lost Daughter Best Picture 6 45.86 Watched (theater)
12. Nightmare Alley Best Picture 9 53.66 Watched (theater)
13. Spider-Man: No Way Home Best Picture 3 21.1 Watched (theater)
14. Drive My Car Best Picture 4 37.03 Watched (theater)
15. Spencer Best Picture 6 43.96 Watched (theater)
16. Being the Ricardos Best Picture 5 39.25 Watched (theater)
17. Parallel Mothers Best Picture 5 24.45 Watched (theater)
18. Cyrano Best Picture 8 25.81 Not released yet
19. House of Gucci Best Picture 5 58.14 Watched (theater)
20. No Time to Die Best Picture 7 50.02 Watched (theater)
21. Pig Best Picture 4 4.29 Watched (theater)
22. The French Dispatch Best Picture 6 34.77 Watched (theater)
23. Titane Best Director 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
24. The Eyes of Tammy Faye Best Actress 2 37.36 Watched (theater)
25. Respect Best Actress 2 11.45 Watched (theater)
26. Jockey Best Actor 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
27. Red Rocket Best Actor 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
28. Passing Best Supporting Actress 2 13.89 Not watched
29. Mass Best Supporting Actress 3 9.76 Not watched
30. The Tender Bar Best Supporting Actor 1 2.63 Watched (theater)
31. The Humans Best Supporting Actor 2 3.03 Not watched
32. C’mon C’mon Best Original Screenplay 1 2.04 Watched (theater)
33. The Worst Person in the World Best Original Screenplay 2 19.55 Not released yet
34. The Hand of God Best Original Screenplay 2 17.66 Watched (theater)
35. A Hero Best Original Screenplay 2 19.17 Watched (theater)
36. Flee Best International Film 3 56.77 Watched (theater)
37. I’m Your Man Best International Film 1 2.22 Watched (theater)
38. Compartment No. 6 Best International Film 1 1.45 Not released yet
39. Prayers for the Stolen Best International Film 1 0.99 Not watched
40. Lamb Best International Film 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
41. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom Best International Film 1 0.99 Not watched
42. Luca Best Animated Feature 1 20.83 Watched (at home)
43. Encanto Best Animated Feature 3 45.73 Watched (theater)
44. The Mitchells vs the Machines Best Animated Feature 1 20 Not watched
45. Raya and the Last Dragon Best Animated Feature 1 14.29 Watched (at home)
46. Belle Best Animated Feature 1 4.35 Watched (theater)
47. Sing 2 Best Animated Feature 2 4.22 Watched (theater)
48. The Summit of the Gods Best Animated Feature 1 0.99 Not watched
49. Summer of Soul Best Documentary Feature 1 22.22 Not watched
50. The Rescue Best Documentary Feature 1 16.67 Watched (theater)
51. Procession Best Documentary Feature 1 11.11 Not watched
52. Ascension Best Documentary Feature 1 9.52 Not watched
53. Attica Best Documentary Feature 1 4.76 Not watched
54. The First Wave Best Documentary Feature 1 4.35 Not watched
55. Julia Best Documentary Feature 1 3.23 Not watched
56. The Velvet Underground Best Documentary Feature 1 3.23 Not watched
57. In the Same Breath Best Documentary Feature 1 2.22 Not watched
58. Writing with Fire Best Documentary Feature 1 1.49 Not released yet
59. Faya Dayi Best Documentary Feature 1 0.99 Not watched
60. The Green Knight Best Cinematography 1 1.37 Watched (theater)
61. Last Night in Soho Best Film Editing 2 2.44 Watched (theater)
62. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Best Visual Effects 1 16.67 Watched (theater)
63. The Matrix Resurrections Best Visual Effects 1 15.38 Watched (theater)
64. Godzilla vs. Kong Best Visual Effects 1 7.69 Watched (theater)
65. Eternals Best Visual Effects 1 7.14 Watched (theater)
66. Free Guy Best Visual Effects 1 4.76 Watched (theater)
67. Black Widow Best Visual Effects 1 1.41 Watched (theater)
68. Ghostbusters: Afterlife Best Visual Effects 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
69. Cruella Best Production Design 3 43.11 Watched (theater)
70. The Last Duel Best Production Design 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
71. Coming 2 America Best Costume Design 2 3.12 Watched (at home)
72. The Suicide Squad Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1 5.88 Watched (theater)
73. A Quiet Place Part II Best Sound 1 4.35 Watched (theater)
74. The Harder They Fall Best Score 2 8.01 Watched (theater)
75. Annette Best Song 1 2.22 Not watched
76. Bruised Best Song 1 1.45 Not watched
77. Four Good Days Best Song 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
78. Dear Evan Hansen Best Song 1 0.99 Watched (theater)

Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for each of the individual 23 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on January 22.

As in past years, I omitted movie for which 0 experts predict a nomination or win; only movies that at least one expert thinks might be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability based on the odds. It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.

Shortcuts

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 12 7/1 12.5
2 Belfast 26 7 15/2 11.76
3 West Side Story 26 4 8/1 11.11
4 King Richard 26 2 17/2 10.53
5 Dune 26 2 9/1 10
6 Licorice Pizza 25 0 10/1 9.09
7 CODA 25 0 21/2 8.7
8 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 18/1 5.26
9 Don’t Look Up 16 0 20/1 4.76
10 tick, tick… Boom! 14 0 25/1 3.85
11 The Lost Daughter 7 0 46/1 2.13
12 Nightmare Alley 6 0 48/1 2.04
13 Spider-Man: No Way Home 5 0 66/1 1.49
14 Drive My Car 4 0 78/1 1.27
15 Spencer 3 0 97/1 1.02
16 Being the Ricardos 3 0 100/1 0.99
17 Parallel Mothers 2 0 100/1 0.99
18 Cyrano 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 House of Gucci 2 0 100/1 0.99
20 No Time to Die 2 0 100/1 0.99
21 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
22 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) 27 25 16/5 23.81
2 Dune (Denis Villeneuve) 23 1 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) 20 1 6/1 14.29
4 West Side Story (Steven Spielberg) 20 0 6/1 14.29
5 Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) 18 0 7/1 12.5
6 Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 CODA (Sian Heder) 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro) 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) 2 0 75/1 1.32
12 Cyrano (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Titane (Julia Ducournau) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman) 26 6 4/1 20
2 Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman) 21 9 5/1 16.67
3 Spencer (Kristen Stewart) 21 8 5/1 16.67
4 The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain) 22 2 11/2 15.38
5 House of Gucci (Lady Gaga) 20 1 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers (Penelope Cruz) 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Respect (Jennifer Hudson) 5 0 28/1 3.45
8 West Side Story (Rachel Zegler) 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza (Alana Haim) 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 CODA (Emilia Jones) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Frances McDormand) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 King Richard (Will Smith) 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch) 27 5 19/5 20.83
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Denzel Washington) 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield) 25 2 9/2 18.18
5 Cyrano (Peter Dinklage) 15 0 9/1 10
6 Being the Ricardos (Javier Bardem) 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Nightmare Alley (Bradley Cooper) 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Don’t Look Up (Leonardo DiCaprio) 2 0 72/1 1.37
9 Pig (Nicolas Cage) 2 0 75/1 1.32
10 Jockey (Clifton Collins, Jr) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Dune (Timothee Chalamet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Red Rocket (Simon Rex) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 West Side Story (Ariana DeBose) 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 The Power of the Dog (Kirsten Dunst) 27 6 39/10 20.41
3 King Richard (Aunjanue Ellis) 24 3 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast (Caitriona Balfe) 22 0 11/2 15.38
5 Passing (Ruth Negga) 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 CODA (Marlee Matlin) 7 1 20/1 4.76
7 Mass (Ann Dowd) 6 1 22/1 4.35
8 West Side Story (Rita Moreno) 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 The Lost Daughter (Jessie Buckley) 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Don’t Look Up (Cate Blanchett) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Kodi Smit-McPhee) 27 20 10/3 23.08
2 CODA (Troy Kotsur) 23 3 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Ciaran Hinds) 17 1 7/1 12.5
4 Licorice Pizza (Bradley Cooper) 14 0 19/2 9.52
5 House of Gucci (Jared Leto) 13 1 19/2 9.52
6 Belfast (Jamie Dornan) 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 West Side Story (Mike Faist) 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Power of the Dog (Jesse Plemons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
9 Being the Ricardos (J.K. Simmons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
10 Mass (Jason Isaacs) 4 0 37/1 2.63
11 The Tender Bar (Ben Affleck) 4 0 37/1 2.63
12 The Humans (Richard Jenkins) 3 0 48/1 2.04
13 Pig (Alex Wolff) 1 1 100/1 0.99
14 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Corey Hawkins) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 The French Dispatch (Jeffrey Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Licorice Pizza 26 15 37/10 21.28
2 Belfast 24 9 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up 20 1 6/1 14.29
5 Being the Ricardos 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Mass 4 0 35/1 2.78
8 C’mon C’mon 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 The Worst Person in the World 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Hand of God 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Hero 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 22 82/25 23.36
2 The Lost Daughter 26 4 4/1 20
3 CODA 26 0 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 17 0 15/2 11.76
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Drive My Car 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 Dune 7 1 20/1 4.76
8 Nightmare Alley 6 0 22/1 4.35
9 Passing 4 0 35/1 2.78
10 Cyrano 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Humans 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Drive My Car 25 22 82/25 23.36
2 Flee 25 0 9/2 18.18
3 A Hero 23 0 9/2 18.18
4 The Worst Person in the World 22 3 9/2 18.18
5 The Hand of God 22 0 5/1 16.67
6 I’m Your Man 3 0 44/1 2.22
7 Compartment No. 6 2 0 68/1 1.45
8 Prayers for the Stolen 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Lamb 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Luca 26 8 19/5 20.83
2 Encanto 25 10 39/10 20.41
3 The Mitchells vs the Machines 25 3 4/1 20
4 Flee 23 4 9/2 18.18
5 Raya and the Last Dragon 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Belle 6 0 22/1 4.35
7 Sing 2 4 1 30/1 3.23
8 The Summit of the Gods 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Summer of Soul 25 14 7/2 22.22
2 Flee 24 8 39/10 20.41
3 The Rescue 22 0 5/1 16.67
4 Procession 15 0 8/1 11.11
5 Ascension 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 Attica 6 1 20/1 4.76
7 The First Wave 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Julia 4 1 30/1 3.23
9 The Velvet Underground 4 1 30/1 3.23
10 In the Same Breath 3 0 44/1 2.22
11 Writing with Fire 2 0 66/1 1.49
12 Faya Dayi 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 19 69/20 22.47
2 The Power of the Dog 27 4 39/10 20.41
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth 25 2 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 21 2 11/2 15.38
5 Belfast 19 0 13/2 13.33
6 Nightmare Alley 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 The Green Knight 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Spencer 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Cyrano 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 13 71/20 21.98
2 The Power of the Dog 25 2 9/2 18.18
3 Belfast 21 6 5/1 16.67
4 West Side Story 16 3 15/2 11.76
5 Licorice Pizza 13 1 10/1 9.09
6 Don’t Look Up 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Nightmare Alley 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 King Richard 2 1 60/1 1.64
9 Last Night in Soho 2 0 68/1 1.45
10 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 tick, tick… Boom! 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 CODA 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 25 16/5 23.81
2 Spider-Man: No Way Home 23 0 5/1 16.67
3 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 23 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Matrix Resurrections 21 1 11/2 15.38
5 Godzilla vs. Kong 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Eternals 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Free Guy 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 No Time to Die 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Black Widow 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 Ghostbusters: Afterlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 Nightmare Alley 24 6 9/2 18.18
3 West Side Story 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 The French Dispatch 19 2 6/1 14.29
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Cyrano 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Spencer 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Belfast 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Cruella 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Power of the Dog 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Licorice Pizza 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Last Duel 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Cruella 25 16 18/5 21.74
2 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
3 Dune 21 3 11/2 15.38
4 Spencer 18 4 6/1 14.29
5 West Side Story 15 1 8/1 11.11
6 Nightmare Alley 13 0 10/1 9.09
7 Cyrano 7 1 18/1 5.26
8 The French Dispatch 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Coming 2 America 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Lost Daughter 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Eyes of Tammy Faye 24 17 71/20 21.98
2 Dune 25 4 39/10 20.41
3 Cruella 24 3 4/1 20
4 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
5 West Side Story 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 The Suicide Squad 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Nightmare Alley 4 0 33/1 2.94
8 Coming 2 America 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Cyrano 2 0 68/1 1.45

Best Sound

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 21 82/25 23.36
2 No Time to Die 27 0 4/1 20
3 West Side Story 24 5 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast 18 0 7/1 12.5
5 tick, tick… Boom! 17 0 15/2 11.76
6 The Power of the Dog 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 A Quiet Place Part II 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Spider-Man: No Way Home 4 1 33/1 2.94
9 Last Night in Soho 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 25 13 7/2 22.22
2 Dune 24 11 19/5 20.83
3 The French Dispatch 20 1 11/2 15.38
4 Don’t Look Up 17 0 7/1 12.5
5 Parallel Mothers 11 0 11/1 8.33
6 Spencer 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Encanto 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 No Time to Die 4 0 33/1 2.94
9 The Harder They Fall 3 0 46/1 2.13
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 No Time to Die (“No Time to Die”) 25 13 71/20 21.98
2 Encanto (“Dos Oruguitas”) 22 4 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard (“Be Alive”) 21 6 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up (“Just Look Up”) 20 1 11/2 15.38
5 Respect (“Here I Am Singing My Way Home”) 11 0 23/2 8
6 The Harder They Fall (“Guns Go Bang”) 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Belfast (“Down to Joy”) 7 0 18/1 5.26
8 CODA (“Beyond the Shore”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 Annette (“So May We Start”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
10 Bruised (“Automatic Woman”) 2 0 68/1 1.45
11 Sing 2 (“Your Song Saved My Life”) 1 1 100/1 0.99
12 Four Good Days (“Somehow You Do”) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Dear Evan Hansen (“The Anonymous Ones”) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Long Goodbye 22 4 39/10 20.41
2 When the Sun Sets 19 12 4/1 20
3 Tala’vision 18 2 11/2 15.38
4 Frimas 16 1 6/1 14.29
5 Censor of Dreams 15 0 7/1 12.5
6 You’re Dead Helen 7 0 16/1 5.88
7 The Criminals 3 2 33/1 2.94
8 Under the Heavens 2 0 54/1 1.82
9 Les Grandes Claques 2 0 54/1 1.82
10 The Dress 1 1 90/1 1.1
11 Distances 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Stenofonen 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Ala Kachuu: Take and Run 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 On My Mind 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Please Hold 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Us Again 20 15 19/5 20.83
2 The Windshield Wiper 18 0 5/1 16.67
3 Step Into the River 16 1 6/1 14.29
4 Only a Child 16 1 13/2 13.33
5 Robin Robin 15 1 13/2 13.33
6 Namoo 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 The Musician 6 0 18/1 5.26
8 Affairs of the Art 3 1 35/1 2.78
9 Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice 2 1 48/1 2.04
10 Flowing Home 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 Bestia 2 0 58/1 1.69
12 Boxballet 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Mum is Pouring Rain 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Bad Seeds 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Souvenir Souvenir 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Three Songs for Benazir 20 11 4/1 20
2 The Queen of Basketball 19 6 9/2 18.18
3 Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker 17 2 11/2 15.38
4 Terror Contagion 17 0 6/1 14.29
5 When We Were Bullies 16 1 13/2 13.33
6 Audible 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis 5 0 22/1 4.35
8 Lead Me Home 2 0 56/1 1.75
9 Day of Rage 2 0 58/1 1.69
10 Lynching Postcards 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 The Facility 2 0 60/1 1.64
12 Takeover 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 A Broken House 1 0 100/1 0.99
  1. Of course, I only ventured into theaters over the past year after being fully vaccinated, wearing a mask every time, and going during off-peak times. ↩︎

  2. I didn’t make a list like this last year because theaters were closed entirely due to COVID-19. Every movie was able to watch at home via streaming or purchase, but I just didn’t feel compelled to watch many of them throughout 2020. But then, with about a week before the Oscars ceremony, I got the bug and decided to try to catch up. I remember having to watch a ridiculous number of movies in a very short time span (including 18 movies over the final 3 days!), but I somehow did manage to complete the Oscars Death Race for one more year. Streak intact! ↩︎

  3. I only saw Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Coming 2 America at home because they never got a theatrical release at all. The first two were fantastic and I so wish I could’ve seen them on the big screen for the first time. I’ve been holding out on watching The Mitchells vs The Machines for the same reason - it supposedly had a brief theatrical release at limited “nationwide” theaters in November to increase Oscar buzz - but apparently not at a single theater on the East Coast(?!). ↩︎

  4. Cyrano was supposed to come out in January, but has been delayed to Feb 28. The Worst Person in the World and Compartment No. 6 are international films that will get released closer to the Oscar ceremony, likely to capitalize on possible nominations buzz, as is typical each year. And Writing With Fire looks like it never got a theatrical release but will be released on VOD on 3/1/22. (It’s a documentary about an Indian newspaper run by Dalit women using smartphones - I hadn’t heard about it until making this list and now I really wish it were available to watch now!) ↩︎

  5. Passing and Mass. They both came out for only a week or two at theaters far from me and were gone before I realized I should make the trip because they might be Oscar contenders. This has been a particular challenge with direct-to-Netflix films, of which there are more than ever this year. They usually only get an extremely limited release in select theaters for 1-2 weeks. I realize most people happily watch them on Netflix at home, but I strongly prefer the theatrical experience. At least I’d heard a LOT of buzz about The Power of the Dog before it came out, so even though it was only playing at one theater in DC, I made a point of making the drive to see it. While I was there, I also saw two other Netflix films that I hadn’t heard about before but were also only playing at this theater - The Lost Daughter and The Hand of God. I’m really glad I did, because they were great (especially the former) and never did come out anywhere else! ↩︎

Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2020: The snubs and surprises

The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier today. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In 2 short film categories this year, there were 2 movies nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

(This data was originally downloaded from GoldDerby on January 1 - it’s interesting to see how quickly things can change!)


Shortcuts


Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart 7 0 22/1
8 1917 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
11 Us 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Not predicted, but nominated: Memorable.

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Not predicted, but nominated: In the Absence.

Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2020: The possible nominees

Like the last 3 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible in advance (thank you, AMC A-List and Regal Unlimited!).

In a change from past years, I didn’t use any math to calculate the most likely nominees. Instead, I just downloaded GoldDerby’s list of movies with a chance of being nominated in any category, removed all duplicates, and sorted it by highest category. I felt this gave me a better list from which to work, starting with the movies that are widely acclaimed and have a chance at Best Picture, and ending with movies that may only be nominated in technical categories.

Altogether, this gave me a list of 72 possible movies. Hopefully, this will be the second year in a row that I successfully complete the Oscars Death Race!


Shortcuts


Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Jan 1.

Like the last 3 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM DEL NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story - 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite - 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell - 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory - 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out - 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart - 7 0 22/1
8 1917 - 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name - 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell - 1 0 100/1
11 Us - 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Final List

This list includes all feature-length films (no shorts). Altogether, there are 72 unique films that may be nominated for an Oscar.

# Film Highest Category Total Categories
1. The Irishman Best Picture 13
2. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood Best Picture 12
3. Parasite Best Picture 12
4. Marriage Story Best Picture 8
5. 1917 Best Picture 11
6. Jojo Rabbit Best Picture 7
7. Little Women Best Picture 12
8. Joker Best Picture 12
9. Ford v Ferrari Best Picture 8
10. Bombshell Best Picture 10
11. The Farewell Best Picture 5
12. The Two Popes Best Picture 8
13. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Best Picture 3
14. Avengers: Endgame Best Picture 8
15. Pain and Glory Best Picture 8
16. Knives Out Best Picture 3
17. Dolemite Is My Name Best Picture 8
18. Hustlers Best Picture 3
19. Booksmart Best Picture 2
20. Rocketman Best Picture 7
21. The Report Best Picture 2
22. The Lighthouse Best Picture 3
23. Judy Best Actress 4
24. Harriet Best Actress 2
25. Us Best Actress 3
26. Clemency Best Actress 1
27. Late Night Best Actress 1
28. Uncut Gems Best Actor 2
29. Richard Jewell Best Supporting Actress 1
30. Waves Best Supporting Actor 1
31. Just Mercy Best Supporting Actor 2
32. Honey Boy Best Supporting Actor 1
33. Toy Story 4 Best Adapted Screenplay 3
34. A Hidden Life Best Cinematography 1
35. Ad Astra Best Cinematography 4
36. Portrait of a Lady on Fire Best Cinematography 1
37. Les Miserables Best International Film 1
38. Atlantics Best International Film 1
39. Honeyland Best International Film 2
40. The Painted Bird Best International Film 1
41. Beanpole Best International Film 1
42. Corpus Christi Best International Film 1
43. Frozen II Best Animated Feature 3
44. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Best Animated Feature 1
45. Missing Link Best Animated Feature 1
46. I Lost My Body Best Animated Feature 1
47. Abominable Best Animated Feature 1
48. Klaus Best Animated Feature 1
49. Spies in Disguise Best Animated Feature 1
50. Weathering with You Best Animated Feature 1
51. Apollo 11 Best Documentary Feature 1
52. American Factory Best Documentary Feature 1
53. For Sama Best Documentary Feature 1
54. The Cave Best Documentary Feature 1
55. One Child Nation Best Documentary Feature 1
56. Maiden Best Documentary Feature 1
57. The Biggest Little Farm Best Documentary Feature 1
58. The Edge of Democracy Best Documentary Feature 1
59. Knock Down the House Best Documentary Feature 1
60. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Best Visual Effects 4
61. The Lion King Best Visual Effects 2
62. Alita: Battle Angel Best Visual Effects 1
63. Captain Marvel Best Visual Effects 1
64. Cats Best Visual Effects 1
65. Gemini Man Best Visual Effects 1
66. Downton Abbey Best Production Design 3
67. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1
68. Motherless Brooklyn Best Score 2
69. Wild Rose Best Song 1
70. Aladdin Best Song 1
71. Breakthrough Best Song 1
72. The Black Godfather Best Song 1
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2019: The actual nominees (52 movies!)

Now that we know all the nominations, it’s time to put together the list of all movies. Instead of just sorting by number of nominations, I like to group them by their “highest” nominated category. This helps me prioritize as I’m trying to complete the Oscars Death Race (watching all movies in all categories!) each year.

If it’s helpful, I’ve also made a Letterboxd list of these movies:


The big list

Highest Nominated Category # Movie Nominations
Picture 1. Roma 10 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Foreign Language Film, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 2. The Favourite 10 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design)
Picture 3. A Star Is Born 8 (Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Song, Sound Mixing)
Picture 4. Vice 8 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Picture 5. Black Panther 7 (Picture, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 6. BlacKkKlansman 6 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score)
Picture 7. Bohemian Rhapsody 5 (Picture, Actor, Film Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
Picture 8. Green Book 5 (Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing)
Directing 9. Cold War 3 (Director, Foreign Language Film, Cinematography)
Acting 10. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 3 (Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
Acting 11. If Beale Street Could Talk 3 (Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Score)
Acting 12. At Eternity’s Gate 1 (Actor)
Acting 13. The Wife 1 (Actress)
Screenplay 14. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 3 (Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Song)
Screenplay 15. First Reformed 1 (Original Screenplay)
Foreign Language 16. Never Look Away 2 (Foreign Language Film, Cinematography)
Foreign Language 17. Capernaum 1 (Foreign Language Film)
Foreign Language 18. Shoplifters 1 (Foreign Language Film)
Animated 19. Isle of Dogs 2 (Animated Feature, Score)
Animated 20. Incredibles 2 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 21. Mirai 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 22. Ralph Breaks the Internet 1 (Animated Feature)
Animated 23. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 1 (Animated Feature)
Documentary 24. RBG 2 (Documentary Feature, Song)
Documentary 25. Free Solo 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 26. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 27. Minding the Gap 1 (Documentary Feature)
Documentary 28. Of Fathers and Sons 1 (Documentary Feature)
Technical 29. First Man 4 (Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
Technical 30. Mary Poppins Returns 4 (Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Score)
Technical 31. Mary Queen of Scots 2 (Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling)
Technical 32. A Quiet Place 1 (Sound Editing)
Technical 33. Avengers: Infinity War 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 34. Border 1 (Makeup & Hairstyling)
Technical 35. Christopher Robin 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 36. Ready Player One 1 (Visual Effects)
Technical 37. Solo: A Star Wars Story 1 (Visual Effects)
Shorts 38. Detainment 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 39. Fauve 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 40. Marguerite 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 41. Mother 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 42. Skin 1 (Live Action Short)
Shorts 43. Animal Behaviour 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 44. Bao 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 45. Late Afternoon 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 46. One Small Step 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 47. Weekends 1 (Animated Short)
Shorts 48. A Night at the Garden 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 49. Black Sheep 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 50. End Game 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 51. Lifeboat 1 (Documentary Short)
Shorts 52. Period. End of Sentence. 1 (Documentary Short)
Read more ▸

Oscars checklist 2019: The snubs and surprises

The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier this week. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In eight (!) categories this year, there were movies or people nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

Remember, this data was originally compiled a month before the nominations were announced - a lot can change in that time!


Shortcuts


Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 30 21 13/2 13.33
2 Roma 30 3 15/2 11.76
3 Green Book 30 5 15/2 11.76
4 The Favourite 29 0 17/2 10.53
5 Black Panther 27 1 10/1 9.09
6 If Beale Street Could Talk 28 0 21/2 8.70
7 BlacKkKlansman 26 0 11/1 8.33
8 Vice 27 0 23/2 8.00
9 First Man 21 0 18/1 5.26
10 Mary Poppins Returns 17 0 22/1 4.35
11 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7 0 52/1 1.89
12 First Reformed 4 0 75/1 1.32
13 A Quiet Place 4 0 92/1 1.08
14 Crazy Rich Asians 4 0 95/1 1.04
15 Widows 3 0 100/1 0.99
16 Eighth Grade 4 0 100/1 0.99
17 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 100/1 0.99
18 The Rider 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 Beautiful Boy 1 0 100/1 0.99
20 Leave No Trace 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) 30 27 16/5 23.81
2 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 2 9/2 18.18
3 BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) 23 1 6/1 14.29
4 The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) 21 0 13/2 13.33
5 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 16 0 9/1 10.00
6 Green Book (Peter Farrelly) 9 0 16/1 5.88
7 First Man (Damien Chazelle) 8 0 20/1 4.76
8 Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) 5 0 30/1 3.23
9 Vice (Adam McKay) 5 0 33/1 2.94
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) 28 16 19/5 20.83
2 The Favourite (Olivia Colman) 30 6 39/10 20.41
3 The Wife (Glenn Close) 28 6 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) 17 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) 10 0 15/1 6.25
7 Widows (Viola Davis) 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Hereditary (Toni Collette) 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Cold War (Joanna Kulig) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 15 19/5 20.83
2 Vice (Christian Bale) 29 7 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) 29 5 4/1 20.00
4 Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) 21 1 13/2 13.33
6 BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) 8 0 20/1 4.76
7 At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe) 5 0 33/1 2.94
8 First Man (Ryan Gosling) 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) 29 21 7/2 22.22
2 Vice (Amy Adams) 26 7 9/2 18.18
3 The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) 27 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Favourite (Emma Stone) 26 1 5/1 16.67
5 First Man (Claire Foy) 19 0 15/2 11.76
6 Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) 6 0 28/1 3.45
7 Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) 5 1 30/1 3.23
8 Roma (Marina de Tavira) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) 2 0 82/1 1.20
12 Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Green Book (Linda Cardellini) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 What They Had (Blythe Danner) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Green Book (Mahershala Ali) 30 16 7/2 22.22
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) 30 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) 27 3 9/2 18.18
4 Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) 23 4 11/2 15.38
5 BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) 16 1 9/1 10.00
6 Vice (Sam Rockwell) 9 0 18/1 5.26
7 Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) 7 1 22/1 4.35
8 Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Vice (Steve Carell) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 29 15 37/10 21.28
2 Roma 29 8 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book 26 4 5/1 16.67
4 First Reformed 23 2 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 20 0 7/1 12.50
6 Eighth Grade 15 1 19/2 9.52
7 A Quiet Place 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Sorry to Bother You 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Capernaum 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Private Life 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 BlacKkKlansman 27 20 19/5 20.83
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 29 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born 28 2 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 28 1 9/2 18.18
5 First Man 10 0 15/1 6.25
6 Leave No Trace 7 0 22/1 4.35
7 Black Panther 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Widows 4 0 40/1 2.44
9 The Death of Stalin 4 0 40/1 2.44
10 Beautiful Boy 3 2 44/1 2.22
11 Crazy Rich Asians 3 0 54/1 1.82
12 Wildlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 29 27 16/5 23.81
2 The Favourite 26 1 5/1 16.67
3 First Man 25 1 5/1 16.67
4 If Beale Street Could Talk 22 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Black Panther 12 0 12/1 7.69
7 Cold War 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Rider 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Widows 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Private War 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Never Look Away.

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 26 11 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 22 12 9/2 18.18
3 A Star Is Born 21 2 11/2 15.38
4 The Favourite 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 13 0 21/2 8.70
6 Widows 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Black Panther 9 2 14/1 6.67
8 Green Book 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 22 July 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 BlacKkKlansman 2 0 70/1 1.41
11 Destroyer 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Quiet Place 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 If Beale Street Could Talk 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: Bohemian Rhapsody.

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 28 17 17/5 22.73
2 Black Panther 28 9 37/10 21.28
3 Mary Poppins Returns 27 1 9/2 18.18
4 Mary Queen of Scots 26 1 9/2 18.18
5 Colette 7 0 20/1 4.76
6 Crazy Rich Asians 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Fantastic Beasts 2 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 A Star Is Born 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 50/1 1.96
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Suspiria 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Vice 9 8 31/20 39.22
2 Black Panther 6 2 4/1 20.00
3 Border 4 0 17/2 10.53
4 Suspiria 3 0 11/1 8.33
5 Stan and Ollie 3 0 11/1 8.33
6 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 23/2 8.00
7 Bohemian Rhapsody 2 0 18/1 5.26

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 28 15 17/5 22.73
2 The Favourite 27 11 37/10 21.28
3 First Man 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 12 0 23/2 8.00
6 Roma 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 Crazy Rich Asians 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Isle of Dogs 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Fantastic Beasts 2 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Shallow) 12 12 16/5 23.81
2 Black Panther (All the Stars) 11 0 9/2 18.18
3 RBG (I’ll Fight) 10 0 11/2 15.38
4 Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) 9 0 6/1 14.29
5 Dumplin’ (Girl in the Movies) 7 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 Boy Erased (Revelation) 4 0 16/1 5.88
8 Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) 2 0 33/1 2.94
9 Quincy (Keep Reachin’) 1 0 66/1 1.49

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 12 5 18/5 21.74
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 12 4 19/5 20.83
3 Black Panther 10 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 9 1 6/1 14.29
5 Isle of Dogs 8 0 7/1 12.50
6 BlacKkKlansman 4 0 16/1 5.88
7 A Quiet Place 3 0 22/1 4.35
8 Vice 2 1 28/1 3.45

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 Black Panther 27 3 39/10 20.41
3 A Quiet Place 26 4 4/1 20.00
4 A Star Is Born 25 1 9/2 18.18
5 Roma 21 3 11/2 15.38
6 Mission Impossible: Fallout 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Incredibles 2 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Bohemian Rhapsody 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 27 8 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 25 12 4/1 20.00
3 Black Panther 25 3 9/2 18.18
4 A Quiet Place 20 2 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 Bohemian Rhapsody 12 0 11/1 8.33
7 Roma 8 2 16/1 5.88
8 The Favourite 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Mission Impossible: Fallout 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 11 10 16/5 23.81
2 Ready Player One 11 0 4/1 20.00
3 First Man 10 0 9/2 18.18
4 Avengers: Infinity War 8 1 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Welcome to Marwen 6 0 9/1 10.00
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 0 58/1 1.69
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 0 60/1 1.64

Not predicted, but nominated: Solo: A Star Wars Story and Christopher Robin.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Isle of Dogs 28 3 4/1 20.00
2 Incredibles 2 26 11 4/1 20.00
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 24 13 9/2 18.18
4 Ralph Breaks the Internet 27 0 9/2 18.18
5 Mirai 24 0 11/2 15.38
6 Smallfoot 5 1 28/1 3.45
7 Early Man 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Tito and the Birds 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Grinch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 11 5 71/20 21.98
2 Free Solo 10 2 9/2 18.18
3 RBG 9 4 5/1 16.67
4 Three Identical Strangers 8 0 6/1 14.29
5 Minding the Gap 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Hale County This Morning, This Evening 3 0 20/1 4.76
7 Dark Money 2 0 30/1 3.23
8 Shirkers 2 0 30/1 3.23
9 Crime + Punishment 1 0 58/1 1.69
10 Of Fathers and Sons 1 0 60/1 1.64
11 The Silence of Others 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 10 10 18/5 21.74
2 Cold War 11 1 39/10 20.41
3 Capernaum 11 0 9/2 18.18
4 Shoplifters 10 0 5/1 16.67
5 Never Look Away 6 0 9/1 10.00
6 Burning 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 The Guilty 2 0 28/1 3.45
8 Birds of Passage 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Bao 8 6 39/10 20.41
2 Animal Behaviour 8 0 5/1 16.67
3 Lost and Found 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Bilby 7 1 11/2 15.38
5 Weekends 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Bird Karma 3 1 14/1 6.67
7 Age of Sail 2 0 25/1 3.85
8 Pepe le Morse 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 One Small Step 1 0 46/1 2.13

Not predicted, but nominated: Late Afternoon.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Sheep 9 6 69/20 22.47
2 Zion 8 1 9/2 18.18
3 End Game 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Women of the Gulag 8 0 5/1 16.67
5 Period. End of Sentence. 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 63 Boycott 2 1 20/1 4.76
7 A Night at the Garden 2 1 20/1 4.76
8 Los Comandos 1 0 48/1 2.04

Not predicted, but nominated: Lifeboat.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Marguerite 9 1 19/5 20.83
2 Caroline 8 6 4/1 20.00
3 Icare 7 1 11/2 15.38
4 Skin 7 0 6/1 14.29
5 Detainment 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Fauve 3 0 15/1 6.25
7 May Day 2 0 22/1 4.35
8 Chuchotage 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 Mother 1 0 48/1 2.04
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Oscars checklist 2019: The possible nominees

As I have for the past 2 years, I made a list of the movies that might be nominated at the Oscars this year so I could try to watch as many of them in theaters as possible (thank you, MoviePass and AMC A-List!).

Like 2017 and 2018, I used odds data from Gold Derby to determine the movies that have a realistic chance of being nomninated in each category. Then I made a big list of all overall movies, sorted by most likely to be nominated to least.

Thanks to last year’s list giving me a jumpstart, I fully completed the Oscars Death Race - watching every movie nominated in every category - for the first time! So maybe the list below will be helpful for anyone else who would like to do the same.


Shortcuts


Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on Dec 23 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like the past 2 years, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability (It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.)

Here we go!

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born 30 21 13/2 13.33
2 Roma 30 3 15/2 11.76
3 Green Book 30 5 15/2 11.76
4 The Favourite 29 0 17/2 10.53
5 Black Panther 27 1 10/1 9.09
6 If Beale Street Could Talk 28 0 21/2 8.70
7 BlacKkKlansman 26 0 11/1 8.33
8 Vice 27 0 23/2 8.00
9 First Man 21 0 18/1 5.26
10 Mary Poppins Returns 17 0 22/1 4.35
11 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7 0 52/1 1.89
12 First Reformed 4 0 75/1 1.32
13 A Quiet Place 4 0 92/1 1.08
14 Crazy Rich Asians 4 0 95/1 1.04
15 Widows 3 0 100/1 0.99
16 Eighth Grade 4 0 100/1 0.99
17 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 100/1 0.99
18 The Rider 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 Beautiful Boy 1 0 100/1 0.99
20 Leave No Trace 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma (Alfonso Cuaron) 30 27 16/5 23.81
2 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 2 9/2 18.18
3 BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee) 23 1 6/1 14.29
4 The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos) 21 0 13/2 13.33
5 If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins) 16 0 9/1 10.00
6 Green Book (Peter Farrelly) 9 0 16/1 5.88
7 First Man (Damien Chazelle) 8 0 20/1 4.76
8 Black Panther (Ryan Coogler) 5 0 30/1 3.23
9 Vice (Adam McKay) 5 0 33/1 2.94
10 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Marielle Heller) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 Leave No Trace (Debra Granik) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 First Reformed (Paul Schrader) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Lady Gaga) 28 16 19/5 20.83
2 The Favourite (Olivia Colman) 30 6 39/10 20.41
3 The Wife (Glenn Close) 28 6 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Melissa McCarthy) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 Roma (Yalitza Aparicio) 17 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Emily Blunt) 10 0 15/1 6.25
7 Widows (Viola Davis) 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Hereditary (Toni Collette) 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Saoirse Ronan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Wildlife (Carey Mulligan) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Ben Is Back (Julia Roberts) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Cold War (Joanna Kulig) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper) 28 15 19/5 20.83
2 Vice (Christian Bale) 29 7 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book (Viggo Mortensen) 29 5 4/1 20.00
4 Bohemian Rhapsody (Rami Malek) 27 2 5/1 16.67
5 First Reformed (Ethan Hawke) 21 1 13/2 13.33
6 BlacKkKlansman (John David Washington) 8 0 20/1 4.76
7 At Eternity’s Gate (Willem Dafoe) 5 0 33/1 2.94
8 First Man (Ryan Gosling) 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Old Man and the Gun (Robert Redford) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 If Beale Street Could Talk (Regina King) 29 21 7/2 22.22
2 Vice (Amy Adams) 26 7 9/2 18.18
3 The Favourite (Rachel Weisz) 27 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Favourite (Emma Stone) 26 1 5/1 16.67
5 First Man (Claire Foy) 19 0 15/2 11.76
6 Boy Erased (Nicole Kidman) 6 0 28/1 3.45
7 Crazy Rich Asians (Michelle Yeoh) 5 1 30/1 3.23
8 Roma (Marina de Tavira) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Mary Queen of Scots (Margot Robbie) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 Widows (Elizabeth Debicki) 2 0 80/1 1.23
11 A Quiet Place (Emily Blunt) 2 0 82/1 1.20
12 Leave No Trace (Thomasin McKenzie) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Green Book (Linda Cardellini) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 What They Had (Blythe Danner) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Green Book (Mahershala Ali) 30 16 7/2 22.22
2 Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Richard E. Grant) 30 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born (Sam Elliott) 27 3 9/2 18.18
4 Beautiful Boy (Timothee Chalamet) 23 4 11/2 15.38
5 BlacKkKlansman (Adam Driver) 16 1 9/1 10.00
6 Vice (Sam Rockwell) 9 0 18/1 5.26
7 Black Panther (Michael B. Jordan) 7 1 22/1 4.35
8 Widows (Daniel Kaluuya) 3 0 54/1 1.82
9 Vice (Steve Carell) 2 0 80/1 1.23
10 The Hate U Give (Russell Hornsby) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 If Beale Street Could Talk (Brian Tyree Henry) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Wife (Jonathan Pryce) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 29 15 37/10 21.28
2 Roma 29 8 4/1 20.00
3 Green Book 26 4 5/1 16.67
4 First Reformed 23 2 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 20 0 7/1 12.50
6 Eighth Grade 15 1 19/2 9.52
7 A Quiet Place 4 0 40/1 2.44
8 Sorry to Bother You 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Capernaum 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Private Life 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 BlacKkKlansman 27 20 19/5 20.83
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 29 5 4/1 20.00
3 A Star Is Born 28 2 9/2 18.18
4 Can You Ever Forgive Me? 28 1 9/2 18.18
5 First Man 10 0 15/1 6.25
6 Leave No Trace 7 0 22/1 4.35
7 Black Panther 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Widows 4 0 40/1 2.44
9 The Death of Stalin 4 0 40/1 2.44
10 Beautiful Boy 3 2 44/1 2.22
11 Crazy Rich Asians 3 0 54/1 1.82
12 Wildlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 29 27 16/5 23.81
2 The Favourite 26 1 5/1 16.67
3 First Man 25 1 5/1 16.67
4 If Beale Street Could Talk 22 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Black Panther 12 0 12/1 7.69
7 Cold War 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Rider 2 0 80/1 1.23
9 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Widows 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Private War 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 26 11 19/5 20.83
2 First Man 22 12 9/2 18.18
3 A Star Is Born 21 2 11/2 15.38
4 The Favourite 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 Vice 13 0 21/2 8.70
6 Widows 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Black Panther 9 2 14/1 6.67
8 Green Book 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 22 July 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 BlacKkKlansman 2 0 70/1 1.41
11 Destroyer 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Quiet Place 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 If Beale Street Could Talk 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Mary Poppins Returns 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Favourite 28 17 17/5 22.73
2 Black Panther 28 9 37/10 21.28
3 Mary Poppins Returns 27 1 9/2 18.18
4 Mary Queen of Scots 26 1 9/2 18.18
5 Colette 7 0 20/1 4.76
6 Crazy Rich Asians 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Fantastic Beasts 2 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 A Star Is Born 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 Bohemian Rhapsody 3 0 50/1 1.96
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Suspiria 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Vice 9 8 31/20 39.22
2 Black Panther 6 2 4/1 20.00
3 Border 4 0 17/2 10.53
4 Suspiria 3 0 11/1 8.33
5 Stan and Ollie 3 0 11/1 8.33
6 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 23/2 8.00
7 Bohemian Rhapsody 2 0 18/1 5.26

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 28 15 17/5 22.73
2 The Favourite 27 11 37/10 21.28
3 First Man 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 21 0 6/1 14.29
5 A Star Is Born 12 0 23/2 8.00
6 Roma 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 Crazy Rich Asians 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Mary Queen of Scots 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Isle of Dogs 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Fantastic Beasts 2 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Green Book 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 A Star Is Born (Shallow) 12 12 16/5 23.81
2 Black Panther (All the Stars) 11 0 9/2 18.18
3 RBG (I’ll Fight) 10 0 11/2 15.38
4 Mary Poppins Returns (The Place Where Lost Things Go) 9 0 6/1 14.29
5 Dumplin’ (Girl in the Movies) 7 0 17/2 10.53
6 Mary Poppins Returns (Trip a Little Light Fantastic) 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 Boy Erased (Revelation) 4 0 16/1 5.88
8 Ballad of Buster Scruggs (When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings) 2 0 33/1 2.94
9 Quincy (Keep Reachin’) 1 0 66/1 1.49

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 12 5 18/5 21.74
2 If Beale Street Could Talk 12 4 19/5 20.83
3 Black Panther 10 1 5/1 16.67
4 Mary Poppins Returns 9 1 6/1 14.29
5 Isle of Dogs 8 0 7/1 12.50
6 BlacKkKlansman 4 0 16/1 5.88
7 A Quiet Place 3 0 22/1 4.35
8 Vice 2 1 28/1 3.45

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 First Man 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 Black Panther 27 3 39/10 20.41
3 A Quiet Place 26 4 4/1 20.00
4 A Star Is Born 25 1 9/2 18.18
5 Roma 21 3 11/2 15.38
6 Mission Impossible: Fallout 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Incredibles 2 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Bohemian Rhapsody 1 0 100/1 0.99
1 A Star Is Born 27 8 19/5 20.83

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
2 First Man 25 12 4/1 20.00
3 Black Panther 25 3 9/2 18.18
4 A Quiet Place 20 2 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 Bohemian Rhapsody 12 0 11/1 8.33
7 Roma 8 2 16/1 5.88
8 The Favourite 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Mission Impossible: Fallout 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Panther 11 10 16/5 23.81
2 Ready Player One 11 0 4/1 20.00
3 First Man 10 0 9/2 18.18
4 Avengers: Infinity War 8 1 6/1 14.29
5 Mary Poppins Returns 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Welcome to Marwen 6 0 9/1 10.00
7 Ant-Man and the Wasp 1 0 58/1 1.69
8 Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Isle of Dogs 28 3 4/1 20.00
2 Incredibles 2 26 11 4/1 20.00
3 Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 24 13 9/2 18.18
4 Ralph Breaks the Internet 27 0 9/2 18.18
5 Mirai 24 0 11/2 15.38
6 Smallfoot 5 1 28/1 3.45
7 Early Man 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Tito and the Birds 2 0 78/1 1.27
9 The Grinch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 11 5 71/20 21.98
2 Free Solo 10 2 9/2 18.18
3 RBG 9 4 5/1 16.67
4 Three Identical Strangers 8 0 6/1 14.29
5 Minding the Gap 7 0 15/2 11.76
6 Hale County This Morning, This Evening 3 0 20/1 4.76
7 Dark Money 2 0 30/1 3.23
8 Shirkers 2 0 30/1 3.23
9 Crime + Punishment 1 0 58/1 1.69
10 Of Fathers and Sons 1 0 60/1 1.64
11 The Silence of Others 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Roma 10 10 18/5 21.74
2 Cold War 11 1 39/10 20.41
3 Capernaum 11 0 9/2 18.18
4 Shoplifters 10 0 5/1 16.67
5 Never Look Away 6 0 9/1 10.00
6 Burning 4 0 14/1 6.67
7 The Guilty 2 0 28/1 3.45
8 Birds of Passage 1 0 60/1 1.64

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Bao 8 6 39/10 20.41
2 Animal Behaviour 8 0 5/1 16.67
3 Lost and Found 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Bilby 7 1 11/2 15.38
5 Weekends 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Bird Karma 3 1 14/1 6.67
7 Age of Sail 2 0 25/1 3.85
8 Pepe le Morse 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 One Small Step 1 0 46/1 2.13

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Black Sheep 9 6 69/20 22.47
2 Zion 8 1 9/2 18.18
3 End Game 8 0 5/1 16.67
4 Women of the Gulag 8 0 5/1 16.67
5 Period. End of Sentence. 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 63 Boycott 2 1 20/1 4.76
7 A Night at the Garden 2 1 20/1 4.76
8 Los Comandos 1 0 48/1 2.04

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Marguerite 9 1 19/5 20.83
2 Caroline 8 6 4/1 20.00
3 Icare 7 1 11/2 15.38
4 Skin 7 0 6/1 14.29
5 Detainment 7 0 6/1 14.29
6 Fauve 3 0 15/1 6.25
7 May Day 2 0 22/1 4.35
8 Chuchotage 1 1 37/1 2.63
9 Mother 1 0 48/1 2.04

Final List

In past years, I composed the final list of only English feature-length films (no foreign films, no documentaries, no shorts). But this year, some of the foreign films are up in other categories (Roma, Cold War) and many of the documentaries actually played in mainstream theaters nationwide (RBG, Free Solo, Won’t You Be My Neighbor, etc). So for this year’s list, I’ve included all movies except short films.

Altogether, that makes 79 unique movies that may be nominated for an Oscar. A Star is Born is in the lead, but it’s not that far ahead of many other very good movies.

(I know they’re longshots, but I’ll be rooting for Leave No Trace, Eighth Grade, Beautiful Boy, and A Private War!)

Num Movie Points Possible Categories
1. A Star Is Born 210.15 13 (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
2. Black Panther 196.12 14 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Song, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
3. The Favourite 174.82 11 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Sound Mixing)
4. Roma 162.71 11 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Foreign Language Film)
5. First Man 162.02 12 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
6. Vice 119.48 10 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Score)
7. Mary Poppins Returns 103.16 11 (Picture, Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Costume Design, Production Design, Song, Song, Score, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects)
8. If Beale Street Could Talk 98.02 8 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Score)
9. Green Book 81.73 9 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design)
10. BlacKkKlansman 65.51 7 (Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing, Score)
11. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 57.97 5 (Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
12. A Quiet Place 44.34 7 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Film Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
13. Bohemian Rhapsody 34.20 6 (Picture, Actor, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
14. Isle of Dogs 33.87 3 (Production Design, Score, Animated Feature)
15. RBG 32.05 2 (Song, Documentary Feature)
16. Mary Queen of Scots 30.45 5 (Actress, Supporting Actress, Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design)
17. First Reformed 29.92 4 (Picture, Director, Actor, Original Screenplay)
18. Cold War 26.16 3 (Actress, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film)
19. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? 21.98 1 (Documentary Feature)
20. Incredibles 2 21.37 2 (Sound Editing, Animated Feature)
21. Ready Player One 20.00 1 (Visual Effects)
22. The Wife 19.17 2 (Actress, Supporting Actor)
23. Capernaum 19.17 2 (Original Screenplay, Foreign Language Film)
24. Beautiful Boy 18.60 3 (Picture, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay)
25. Widows 18.24 7 (Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing)
26. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse 18.18 1 (Animated Feature)
27. Ralph Breaks the Internet 18.18 1 (Animated Feature)
28. Free Solo 18.18 1 (Documentary Feature)
29. Shoplifters 16.67 1 (Foreign Language Film)
30. Mirai 15.38 1 (Animated Feature)
31. Crazy Rich Asians 14.69 5 (Picture, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, Production Design)
32. Avengers: Infinity War 14.29 1 (Visual Effects)
33. Three Identical Strangers 14.29 1 (Documentary Feature)
34. Minding the Gap 11.76 1 (Documentary Feature)
35. Border 10.53 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)
36. Dumplin’ 10.53 1 (Song)
37. Eighth Grade 10.51 2 (Picture, Original Screenplay)
38. Welcome to Marwen 10.00 1 (Visual Effects)
39. Never Look Away 10.00 1 (Foreign Language Film)
40. Boy Erased 9.33 2 (Supporting Actress, Song)
41. Suspiria 9.32 2 (Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling)
42. Stan and Ollie 8.33 1 (Makeup and Hairstyling)
43. Leave No Trace 7.32 4 (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
44. Burning 6.67 1 (Foreign Language Film)
45. Fantastic Beasts 2 4.84 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)
46. Mission Impossible: Fallout 4.84 2 (Sound Editing, Sound Mixing)
47. Colette 4.76 1 (Costume Design)
48. Hale County This Morning, This Evening 4.76 1 (Documentary Feature)
49. Smallfoot 3.45 1 (Animated Feature)
50. The Guilty 3.45 1 (Foreign Language Film)
51. Dark Money 3.23 1 (Documentary Feature)
52. Shirkers 3.23 1 (Documentary Feature)
53. At Eternity’s Gate 2.94 1 (Actor)
54. Ballad of Buster Scruggs 2.94 1 (Song)
55. The Death of Stalin 2.44 1 (Adapted Screenplay)
56. The Rider 2.22 2 (Picture, Cinematography)
57. 22 July 2.04 1 (Film Editing)
58. Early Man 2.04 1 (Animated Feature)
59. Wildlife 1.98 2 (Actress, Adapted Screenplay)
60. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms 1.98 2 (Costume Design, Production Design)
61. Ant-Man and the Wasp 1.69 1 (Visual Effects)
62. Crime + Punishment 1.69 1 (Documentary Feature)
63. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom 1.64 1 (Visual Effects)
64. Of Fathers and Sons 1.64 1 (Documentary Feature)
65. The Silence of Others 1.64 1 (Documentary Feature)
66. Birds of Passage 1.64 1 (Foreign Language Film)
67. Quincy 1.49 1 (Song)
68. Tito and the Birds 1.27 1 (Animated Feature)
69. Hereditary 1.23 1 (Actress)
70. You Were Never Really Here 0.99 1 (Director)
71. Ben Is Back 0.99 1 (Actress)
72. The Old Man and the Gun 0.99 1 (Actor)
73. What They Had 0.99 1 (Supporting Actress)
74. The Hate U Give 0.99 1 (Supporting Actor)
75. Sorry to Bother You 0.99 1 (Original Screenplay)
76. Private Life 0.99 1 (Original Screenplay)
77. A Private War 0.99 1 (Cinematography)
78. Destroyer 0.99 1 (Film Editing)
79. The Grinch 0.99 1 (Animated Feature)
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Oscars checklist 2018, take three: all 59 nominated movies, grouped by highest category

For anyone else attempting the Oscars Death Race (watching every movie nominated in every category!), I’ve again made a list of all movies and grouped them by their highest category. This way, it’s a little easier to see which “major” movies you have yet to watch and which other movies you still need to see.1


“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 55 total nominations between them!):

  • [13] The Shape of Water
  • [8] Dunkirk
  • [7] Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
  • [6] Phantom Thread
  • [6] Darkest Hour
  • [5] Lady Bird
  • [4] Get Out
  • [4] Call Me By Your Name
  • [2] The Post

5 more movies nominated in Best Actor/Actress:

  • [4] Mudbound (Best Supporting Actress / Mary J. Blige)
  • [3] I, Tonya (Best Actress / Margot Robbie and Best Supporting Actress / Allison Janney)
  • [1] Roman J. Israel Esq. (Best Best Actor / Denzel Washington)
  • [1] All the Money in the World (Best Supporting Actor / Christopher Plummer)
  • [1] The Florida Project (Best Supporting Actor / Willem Dafoe)

4 more movies nominated in Best Original/Adapted Screenplay:

  • [1] Logan
  • [1] Molly’s Game
  • [1] The Disaster Artist
  • [1] The Big Sick

1 more movie nominated in Best Cinematography:

  • [5] Blade Runner 2049

“Minor” categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Film:

  • [2] Coco
  • [1] Ferdinand
  • [1] Loving Vincent
  • [1] The Boss Baby
  • [1] The Breadwinner

5 more movies nominated in Best Foreign Film:

  • [1] A Fantastic Woman
  • [1] Loveless
  • [1] Of Body and Soul
  • [1] The Insult
  • [1] The Square

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary:

  • [1] Abacus
  • [1] Faces Places
  • [1] Icarus
  • [1] Last Men in Aleppo
  • [1] Strong Island

Technical categories

10 more movies nominated in technical categories (Best Score / Song / Sound Editing / Sound Mixing / Production Design / Makeup & Hairstyling / Costume Design / Film Editing / Visual Effects):

  • [4] Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  • [3] Baby Driver
  • [2] Beauty and the Beast
  • [2] Victoria and Abdul
  • [1] Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
  • [1] Kong: Skull Island
  • [1] Marshall
  • [1] The Greatest Showman
  • [1] War for the Planet of the Apes
  • [1] Wonder

Short film categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Live Action Short Film:

  • [1] DeKalb Elementary
  • [1] My Nephew Emmett
  • [1] The Eleven O’Clock
  • [1] The Silent Child
  • [1] Watu Wote/All of Us

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Short Film:

  • [1] Dear Basketball
  • [1] Garden Party
  • [1] Lou
  • [1] Negative Space
  • [1] Revolting Rhymes

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary - Short Subject:

  • [1] Edith+Eddie
  • [1] Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405
  • [1] Heroin(e)
  • [1] Knife Skills
  • [1] Traffic Stop

By the numbers

There are 24 Oscar categories, with 5 nominees in almost every category (Best Picture has 9 nominees again this year, Makeup & Hairstyling has only 3 nominees per usual).

That means 122 total nominations. Altogether, there are 44 feature-length films and 15 short films nominated (3 fewer than last year!).

If you group everything by their highest-nominated category, you’re looking at…

  • 19 “major” category nominees
  • 15 “minor” category nominees
  • 10 technical category nominees
  • 15 short category nominees

So if you want to watch…

  • All the Best Picture nominees: 9 movies.
  • All the BP + major nominees: 19 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor nominees: 34 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor + technical nominees (AKA no shorts): 44 movies.

And if you wanted to watch everything…59 movies!

  1. Of the 34 feature-length English films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 3 so far: Mudbound (a Netflix original, but I’m hoping they re-release it in theaters now), The Breadwinner (foreign animated movie that I apparently missed in November), and…The Boss Baby (really?!). ↩︎

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Oscars checklist 2018, take two: The snubs and surprises

Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!

Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!

Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…


Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Kong: Skull Island.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: On Body and Soul.

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Garden Party, Revolting Rhymes.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Knife Skills, Traffic Stop.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99
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