The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier today. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In 2 short film categories this year, there were 2 movies nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.

(This data was originally downloaded from GoldDerby on January 1 - it’s interesting to see how quickly things can change!)


Shortcuts


Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 14 7/1
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 9 15/2
3 Parasite 30 5 15/2
4 Marriage Story 29 2 17/2
5 1917 29 0 17/2
6 Jojo Rabbit 26 0 21/2
7 Little Women 26 0 13/1
8 Joker 23 0 14/1
9 Ford v Ferrari 20 0 18/1
10 Bombshell 17 0 22/1
11 The Farewell 12 0 33/1
12 The Two Popes 8 0 42/1
13 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 5 0 72/1
14 Avengers: Endgame 2 0 100/1
15 Pain and Glory 2 0 100/1
16 Knives Out 2 0 100/1
17 Dolemite Is My Name 2 0 100/1
18 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
19 Booksmart 1 0 100/1
20 Rocketman 1 0 100/1
21 The Report 1 0 100/1
22 The Lighthouse 1 0 100/1

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) 30 16 71/20
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) 28 6 4/1
3 Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) 27 7 9/2
4 1917 (Sam Mendes) 28 1 9/2
5 Little Women (Greta Gerwig) 14 0 21/2
6 Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) 12 0 13/1
7 Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) 5 0 33/1
8 Joker (Todd Phillips) 3 0 54/1
9 The Farewell (Lulu Wang) 2 0 80/1
10 Bombshell (Jay Roach) 1 0 100/1

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Judy (Renee Zellweger) 30 24 10/3
2 Bombshell (Charlize Theron) 30 3 4/1
3 Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) 27 3 9/2
4 Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) 19 0 15/2
5 The Farewell (Awkwafina) 17 0 17/2
6 Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) 14 0 21/2
7 Us (Lupita Nyong’o) 10 0 15/1
8 Clemency (Alfre Woodard) 2 0 80/1
9 Late Night (Emma Thompson) 1 0 100/1

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) 29 17 18/5
2 Marriage Story (Adam Driver) 29 7 39/10
3 Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) 22 4 6/1
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) 22 0 13/2
5 The Irishman (Robert De Niro) 16 2 17/2
6 Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) 10 0 15/1
7 The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) 8 0 20/1
8 Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) 7 0 22/1
9 Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) 5 0 33/1
10 Rocketman (Taron Egerton) 2 0 78/1

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story (Laura Dern) 30 21 17/5
2 Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) 27 6 9/2
3 Bombshell (Margot Robbie) 25 0 11/2
4 Little Women (Florence Pugh) 20 1 7/1
5 The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) 16 1 9/1
6 Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) 12 0 13/1
7 The Report (Annette Bening) 9 0 16/1
8 Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) 3 0 52/1
9 Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) 2 1 70/1
10 Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) 2 0 80/1
11 Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) 2 0 80/1
12 Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) 1 0 100/1
13 Little Women (Meryl Streep) 1 0 100/1

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) 29 24 69/20
2 The Irishman (Al Pacino) 30 2 4/1
3 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) 27 0 5/1
4 The Irishman (Joe Pesci) 26 3 5/1
5 The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) 13 0 23/2
6 Parasite (Song Kang-ho) 8 0 20/1
7 The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) 6 0 25/1
8 Waves (Sterling K. Brown) 3 0 54/1
9 Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) 3 0 54/1
10 Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) 2 1 68/1
11 Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) 2 0 82/1
12 Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) 1 0 100/1

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM DEL NOM WIN ODDS
1 Marriage Story - 29 18 18/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood - 28 7 4/1
3 Parasite - 28 3 9/2
4 The Farewell - 20 0 7/1
5 Pain and Glory - 14 1 21/2
6 Knives Out - 13 1 11/1
7 Booksmart - 7 0 22/1
8 1917 - 6 0 25/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name - 3 0 54/1
10 Bombshell - 1 0 100/1
11 Us - 1 0 100/1

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 30 21 17/5
2 Little Women 28 3 9/2
3 Jojo Rabbit 27 4 9/2
4 The Two Popes 25 2 11/2
5 A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 18 0 8/1
6 Joker 15 0 19/2
7 Just Mercy 3 0 52/1
8 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
9 Toy Story 4 1 0 100/1
10 Hustlers 1 0 100/1
11 Judy 1 0 100/1

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 30 27 16/5
2 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 0 9/2
3 The Irishman 25 3 5/1
4 The Lighthouse 21 0 13/2
5 Joker 14 0 21/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 A Hidden Life 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 6 0 25/1
9 Ad Astra 3 0 54/1
10 Little Women 2 0 82/1
11 Portrait of a Lady on Fire 2 0 82/1
12 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Parasite 19 19 16/5
2 Pain and Glory 19 0 39/10
3 Les Miserables 19 0 9/2
4 Atlantics 18 0 9/2
5 Honeyland 9 0 21/2
6 The Painted Bird 5 0 20/1
7 Beanpole 4 0 25/1
8 Corpus Christi 2 0 52/1

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Toy Story 4 29 21 17/5
2 Frozen II 28 3 4/1
3 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World 26 2 5/1
4 Missing Link 24 0 11/2
5 I Lost My Body 19 3 7/1
6 Abominable 13 0 11/1
7 Klaus 4 0 37/1
8 Spies in Disguise 1 0 100/1
9 Weathering with You 1 0 100/1

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Apollo 11 19 11 7/2
2 American Factory 18 3 4/1
3 Honeyland 15 1 11/2
4 For Sama 12 2 7/1
5 The Cave 12 1 7/1
6 One Child Nation 7 0 14/1
7 Maiden 5 1 18/1
8 The Biggest Little Farm 5 0 20/1
9 The Edge of Democracy 1 0 100/1
10 Knock Down the House 1 0 100/1

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Avengers: Endgame 19 12 7/2
2 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 18 1 9/2
3 The Irishman 18 1 9/2
4 The Lion King 17 3 9/2
5 1917 17 2 5/1
6 Alita: Battle Angel 3 0 33/1
7 Captain Marvel 1 0 100/1
8 Cats 1 0 100/1
9 Gemini Man 1 0 100/1

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 The Irishman 27 13 4/1
2 Ford v Ferrari 26 8 9/2
3 1917 26 7 9/2
4 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 27 2 9/2
5 Parasite 17 0 17/2
6 Marriage Story 9 0 18/1
7 Joker 8 0 20/1
8 Bombshell 3 0 52/1
9 Jojo Rabbit 2 0 80/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Pain and Glory 1 0 100/1
12 Little Women 1 0 100/1
13 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1
14 Knives Out 1 0 100/1

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 29 19 71/20
2 The Irishman 27 2 9/2
3 1917 26 5 9/2
4 Little Women 23 2 6/1
5 Jojo Rabbit 18 1 15/2
6 Parasite 12 0 13/1
7 Joker 7 0 22/1
8 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 80/1
9 Dolemite Is My Name 1 1 100/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Bombshell 1 0 100/1
12 Ad Astra 1 0 100/1
13 Downton Abbey 1 0 100/1

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 25 11 9/2
2 Little Women 26 6 9/2
3 Rocketman 25 3 5/1
4 Dolemite Is My Name 24 6 5/1
5 Downton Abbey 18 2 15/2
6 The Irishman 18 1 8/1
7 Jojo Rabbit 5 0 33/1
8 Judy 4 0 40/1
9 Joker 3 1 48/1
10 The Two Popes 1 0 100/1
11 Avengers: Endgame 1 0 100/1

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Bombshell 20 17 82/25
2 Joker 19 3 4/1
3 Judy 15 0 6/1
4 Rocketman 14 0 13/2
5 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 13 0 7/1
6 Dolemite Is My Name 12 0 8/1
7 Downton Abbey 3 0 35/1
8 Maleficent: Mistress of Evil 2 0 54/1
9 1917 1 0 100/1
10 Little Women 1 0 100/1

Best Sound Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 28 14 71/20
2 Ford v Ferrari 28 12 18/5
3 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
4 Avengers: Endgame 22 1 11/2
5 Rocketman 16 0 17/2
6 Ad Astra 11 1 13/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 5 0 30/1
8 Joker 3 0 50/1
9 Parasite 2 0 75/1
10 The Irishman 2 0 75/1

Best Sound Mixing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 27 15 37/10
2 Ford v Ferrari 27 10 19/5
3 Avengers: Endgame 24 1 5/1
4 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 23 0 11/2
5 Rocketman 21 0 6/1
6 Ad Astra 8 1 18/1
7 Once Upon a Time in Hollywood 6 1 22/1
8 Parasite 1 0 100/1
9 Joker 1 0 100/1
10 Uncut Gems 1 0 100/1
11 The Irishman 1 0 100/1

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 1917 19 14 18/5
2 Marriage Story 17 1 5/1
3 Joker 16 2 5/1
4 Little Women 16 1 11/2
5 Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker 12 0 8/1
6 Pain and Glory 5 0 22/1
7 Avengers: Endgame 4 1 25/1
8 Frozen II 3 1 33/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn 3 0 35/1
10 Ford v Ferrari 2 0 50/1
11 Us 2 0 54/1
12 Bombshell 1 0 100/1

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) 18 12 39/10
2 Harriet (“Stand Up”) 20 3 4/1
3 Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) 17 2 5/1
4 The Lion King (“Spirit”) 17 1 5/1
5 Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) 15 1 6/1
6 Aladdin (“Speechless”) 4 0 25/1
7 Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) 3 0 35/1
8 Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) 3 0 35/1
9 Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) 1 1 82/1
10 The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) 1 0 100/1
11 Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) 1 0 100/1

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Brotherhood 14 12 71/20
2 The Neighbors’ Window 14 1 9/2
3 A Sister 13 0 5/1
4 Little Hands 13 0 5/1
5 Refugee 12 0 6/1
6 Miller and Son 5 1 14/1
7 Nefta Football Club 2 1 35/1
8 Saria 2 0 40/1

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Hair Love 15 10 17/5
2 Kitbull 15 3 19/5
3 The Physics of Sorrow 15 1 4/1
4 Dcera Daughter 13 1 5/1
5 Sister 11 0 13/2
6 Hors Piste 2 0 40/1
7 Mind My Mind 2 0 40/1
8 Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days 1 0 80/1
9 He Can’t Live Without Cosmos 1 0 82/1

Not predicted, but nominated: Memorable.

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS
1 Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone 15 14 16/5
2 Fire in Paradise 15 1 39/10
3 Stay Close 13 0 5/1
4 Walk Run Cha-Cha 11 0 13/2
5 After Maria 10 0 7/1
6 St. Louis Superman 5 0 15/1
7 Life Overtakes Me 4 0 20/1
8 The Nightcrawlers 1 0 72/1

Not predicted, but nominated: In the Absence.