The actual Oscar nominations were announced earlier today. It’s always interesting to see which movies were snubbed and which ones received surprise nominations, so I’ve annotated the predictions data from my previous post with this information.
All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. In 2 short film categories this year, there were 2 movies nominated that no one originally predicted - those are indicated below each category.
(This data was originally downloaded from GoldDerby on January 1 - it’s interesting to see how quickly things can change!)
Shortcuts
Best Picture
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
The Irishman |
30 |
14 |
7/1 |
| 2 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
29 |
9 |
15/2 |
| 3 |
Parasite |
30 |
5 |
15/2 |
| 4 |
Marriage Story |
29 |
2 |
17/2 |
| 5 |
1917 |
29 |
0 |
17/2 |
| 6 |
Jojo Rabbit |
26 |
0 |
21/2 |
| 7 |
Little Women |
26 |
0 |
13/1 |
| 8 |
Joker |
23 |
0 |
14/1 |
| 9 |
Ford v Ferrari |
20 |
0 |
18/1 |
| 10 |
Bombshell |
17 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 11 |
The Farewell |
12 |
0 |
33/1 |
| 12 |
The Two Popes |
8 |
0 |
42/1 |
| 13 |
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood |
5 |
0 |
72/1 |
| 14 |
Avengers: Endgame |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 15 |
Pain and Glory |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 16 |
Knives Out |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 17 |
Dolemite Is My Name |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 18 |
Hustlers |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 19 |
Booksmart |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 20 |
Rocketman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 21 |
The Report |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 22 |
The Lighthouse |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Director
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
The Irishman (Martin Scorsese) |
30 |
16 |
71/20 |
| 2 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino) |
28 |
6 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Parasite (Bong Joon-ho) |
27 |
7 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
1917 (Sam Mendes) |
28 |
1 |
9/2 |
| 5 |
Little Women (Greta Gerwig) |
14 |
0 |
21/2 |
| 6 |
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach) |
12 |
0 |
13/1 |
| 7 |
Pain and Glory (Pedro Almodovar) |
5 |
0 |
33/1 |
| 8 |
Joker (Todd Phillips) |
3 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 9 |
The Farewell (Lulu Wang) |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 10 |
Bombshell (Jay Roach) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Actress
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Judy (Renee Zellweger) |
30 |
24 |
10/3 |
| 2 |
Bombshell (Charlize Theron) |
30 |
3 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Marriage Story (Scarlett Johansson) |
27 |
3 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
Little Women (Saoirse Ronan) |
19 |
0 |
15/2 |
| 5 |
The Farewell (Awkwafina) |
17 |
0 |
17/2 |
| 6 |
Harriet (Cynthia Erivo) |
14 |
0 |
21/2 |
| 7 |
Us (Lupita Nyong’o) |
10 |
0 |
15/1 |
| 8 |
Clemency (Alfre Woodard) |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 9 |
Late Night (Emma Thompson) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Actor
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Joker (Joaquin Phoenix) |
29 |
17 |
18/5 |
| 2 |
Marriage Story (Adam Driver) |
29 |
7 |
39/10 |
| 3 |
Pain and Glory (Antonio Banderas) |
22 |
4 |
6/1 |
| 4 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Leonardo DiCaprio) |
22 |
0 |
13/2 |
| 5 |
The Irishman (Robert De Niro) |
16 |
2 |
17/2 |
| 6 |
Dolemite Is My Name (Eddie Murphy) |
10 |
0 |
15/1 |
| 7 |
The Two Popes (Jonathan Pryce) |
8 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 8 |
Ford v Ferrari (Christian Bale) |
7 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 9 |
Uncut Gems (Adam Sandler) |
5 |
0 |
33/1 |
| 10 |
Rocketman (Taron Egerton) |
2 |
0 |
78/1 |
Best Supporting Actress
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Marriage Story (Laura Dern) |
30 |
21 |
17/5 |
| 2 |
Hustlers (Jennifer Lopez) |
27 |
6 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
Bombshell (Margot Robbie) |
25 |
0 |
11/2 |
| 4 |
Little Women (Florence Pugh) |
20 |
1 |
7/1 |
| 5 |
The Farewell (Zhao Shuzhen) |
16 |
1 |
9/1 |
| 6 |
Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett Johansson) |
12 |
0 |
13/1 |
| 7 |
The Report (Annette Bening) |
9 |
0 |
16/1 |
| 8 |
Dolemite Is My Name (Da’Vine Joy Randolph) |
3 |
0 |
52/1 |
| 9 |
Parasite (Lee Jung Eun) |
2 |
1 |
70/1 |
| 10 |
Bombshell (Nicole Kidman) |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 11 |
Richard Jewell (Kathy Bates) |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 12 |
Pain and Glory (Penelope Cruz) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 13 |
Little Women (Meryl Streep) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Supporting Actor
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Brad Pitt) |
29 |
24 |
69/20 |
| 2 |
The Irishman (Al Pacino) |
30 |
2 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Tom Hanks) |
27 |
0 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
The Irishman (Joe Pesci) |
26 |
3 |
5/1 |
| 5 |
The Two Popes (Anthony Hopkins) |
13 |
0 |
23/2 |
| 6 |
Parasite (Song Kang-ho) |
8 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 7 |
The Lighthouse (Willem Dafoe) |
6 |
0 |
25/1 |
| 8 |
Waves (Sterling K. Brown) |
3 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 9 |
Just Mercy (Jamie Foxx) |
3 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 10 |
Jojo Rabbit (Taika Waititi) |
2 |
1 |
68/1 |
| 11 |
Honey Boy (Shia LaBeouf) |
2 |
0 |
82/1 |
| 12 |
Dolemite Is My Name (Wesley Snipes) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Original Screenplay
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Marriage Story |
29 |
18 |
18/5 |
| 2 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
28 |
7 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Parasite |
28 |
3 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
The Farewell |
20 |
0 |
7/1 |
| 5 |
Pain and Glory |
14 |
1 |
21/2 |
| 6 |
Knives Out |
13 |
1 |
11/1 |
| 7 |
Booksmart |
7 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 8 |
1917 |
6 |
0 |
25/1 |
| 9 |
Dolemite Is My Name |
3 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 10 |
Bombshell |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Us |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Adapted Screenplay
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
The Irishman |
30 |
21 |
17/5 |
| 2 |
Little Women |
28 |
3 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
Jojo Rabbit |
27 |
4 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
The Two Popes |
25 |
2 |
11/2 |
| 5 |
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood |
18 |
0 |
8/1 |
| 6 |
Joker |
15 |
0 |
19/2 |
| 7 |
Just Mercy |
3 |
0 |
52/1 |
| 8 |
Avengers: Endgame |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 9 |
Toy Story 4 |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 10 |
Hustlers |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Judy |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Cinematography
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
1917 |
30 |
27 |
16/5 |
| 2 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
27 |
0 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
The Irishman |
25 |
3 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
The Lighthouse |
21 |
0 |
13/2 |
| 5 |
Joker |
14 |
0 |
21/2 |
| 6 |
Parasite |
12 |
0 |
13/1 |
| 7 |
A Hidden Life |
7 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 8 |
Ford v Ferrari |
6 |
0 |
25/1 |
| 9 |
Ad Astra |
3 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 10 |
Little Women |
2 |
0 |
82/1 |
| 11 |
Portrait of a Lady on Fire |
2 |
0 |
82/1 |
| 12 |
The Two Popes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best International Film
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Parasite |
19 |
19 |
16/5 |
| 2 |
Pain and Glory |
19 |
0 |
39/10 |
| 3 |
Les Miserables |
19 |
0 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
Atlantics |
18 |
0 |
9/2 |
| 5 |
Honeyland |
9 |
0 |
21/2 |
| 6 |
The Painted Bird |
5 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 7 |
Beanpole |
4 |
0 |
25/1 |
| 8 |
Corpus Christi |
2 |
0 |
52/1 |
Best Animated Feature
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Toy Story 4 |
29 |
21 |
17/5 |
| 2 |
Frozen II |
28 |
3 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World |
26 |
2 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Missing Link |
24 |
0 |
11/2 |
| 5 |
I Lost My Body |
19 |
3 |
7/1 |
| 6 |
Abominable |
13 |
0 |
11/1 |
| 7 |
Klaus |
4 |
0 |
37/1 |
| 8 |
Spies in Disguise |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 9 |
Weathering with You |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Documentary Feature
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Apollo 11 |
19 |
11 |
7/2 |
| 2 |
American Factory |
18 |
3 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Honeyland |
15 |
1 |
11/2 |
| 4 |
For Sama |
12 |
2 |
7/1 |
| 5 |
The Cave |
12 |
1 |
7/1 |
| 6 |
One Child Nation |
7 |
0 |
14/1 |
| 7 |
Maiden |
5 |
1 |
18/1 |
| 8 |
The Biggest Little Farm |
5 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 9 |
The Edge of Democracy |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 10 |
Knock Down the House |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Visual Effects
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Avengers: Endgame |
19 |
12 |
7/2 |
| 2 |
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker |
18 |
1 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
The Irishman |
18 |
1 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
The Lion King |
17 |
3 |
9/2 |
| 5 |
1917 |
17 |
2 |
5/1 |
| 6 |
Alita: Battle Angel |
3 |
0 |
33/1 |
| 7 |
Captain Marvel |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 8 |
Cats |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 9 |
Gemini Man |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Film Editing
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
The Irishman |
27 |
13 |
4/1 |
| 2 |
Ford v Ferrari |
26 |
8 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
1917 |
26 |
7 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
27 |
2 |
9/2 |
| 5 |
Parasite |
17 |
0 |
17/2 |
| 6 |
Marriage Story |
9 |
0 |
18/1 |
| 7 |
Joker |
8 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 8 |
Bombshell |
3 |
0 |
52/1 |
| 9 |
Jojo Rabbit |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 10 |
The Two Popes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Pain and Glory |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 12 |
Little Women |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 13 |
Avengers: Endgame |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 14 |
Knives Out |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Production Design
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
29 |
19 |
71/20 |
| 2 |
The Irishman |
27 |
2 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
1917 |
26 |
5 |
9/2 |
| 4 |
Little Women |
23 |
2 |
6/1 |
| 5 |
Jojo Rabbit |
18 |
1 |
15/2 |
| 6 |
Parasite |
12 |
0 |
13/1 |
| 7 |
Joker |
7 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 8 |
Ford v Ferrari |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 9 |
Dolemite Is My Name |
1 |
1 |
100/1 |
| 10 |
The Two Popes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Bombshell |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 12 |
Ad Astra |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 13 |
Downton Abbey |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Costume Design
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
25 |
11 |
9/2 |
| 2 |
Little Women |
26 |
6 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
Rocketman |
25 |
3 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Dolemite Is My Name |
24 |
6 |
5/1 |
| 5 |
Downton Abbey |
18 |
2 |
15/2 |
| 6 |
The Irishman |
18 |
1 |
8/1 |
| 7 |
Jojo Rabbit |
5 |
0 |
33/1 |
| 8 |
Judy |
4 |
0 |
40/1 |
| 9 |
Joker |
3 |
1 |
48/1 |
| 10 |
The Two Popes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Avengers: Endgame |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Bombshell |
20 |
17 |
82/25 |
| 2 |
Joker |
19 |
3 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Judy |
15 |
0 |
6/1 |
| 4 |
Rocketman |
14 |
0 |
13/2 |
| 5 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
13 |
0 |
7/1 |
| 6 |
Dolemite Is My Name |
12 |
0 |
8/1 |
| 7 |
Downton Abbey |
3 |
0 |
35/1 |
| 8 |
Maleficent: Mistress of Evil |
2 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 9 |
1917 |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 10 |
Little Women |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Sound Editing
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
1917 |
28 |
14 |
71/20 |
| 2 |
Ford v Ferrari |
28 |
12 |
18/5 |
| 3 |
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker |
23 |
0 |
11/2 |
| 4 |
Avengers: Endgame |
22 |
1 |
11/2 |
| 5 |
Rocketman |
16 |
0 |
17/2 |
| 6 |
Ad Astra |
11 |
1 |
13/1 |
| 7 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
5 |
0 |
30/1 |
| 8 |
Joker |
3 |
0 |
50/1 |
| 9 |
Parasite |
2 |
0 |
75/1 |
| 10 |
The Irishman |
2 |
0 |
75/1 |
Best Sound Mixing
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
1917 |
27 |
15 |
37/10 |
| 2 |
Ford v Ferrari |
27 |
10 |
19/5 |
| 3 |
Avengers: Endgame |
24 |
1 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker |
23 |
0 |
11/2 |
| 5 |
Rocketman |
21 |
0 |
6/1 |
| 6 |
Ad Astra |
8 |
1 |
18/1 |
| 7 |
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood |
6 |
1 |
22/1 |
| 8 |
Parasite |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 9 |
Joker |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 10 |
Uncut Gems |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
The Irishman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Score
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
1917 |
19 |
14 |
18/5 |
| 2 |
Marriage Story |
17 |
1 |
5/1 |
| 3 |
Joker |
16 |
2 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Little Women |
16 |
1 |
11/2 |
| 5 |
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker |
12 |
0 |
8/1 |
| 6 |
Pain and Glory |
5 |
0 |
22/1 |
| 7 |
Avengers: Endgame |
4 |
1 |
25/1 |
| 8 |
Frozen II |
3 |
1 |
33/1 |
| 9 |
Motherless Brooklyn |
3 |
0 |
35/1 |
| 10 |
Ford v Ferrari |
2 |
0 |
50/1 |
| 11 |
Us |
2 |
0 |
54/1 |
| 12 |
Bombshell |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Song
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Frozen II (“Into the Unknown”) |
18 |
12 |
39/10 |
| 2 |
Harriet (“Stand Up”) |
20 |
3 |
4/1 |
| 3 |
Rocketman (“I’m Gonna Love Me Again”) |
17 |
2 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
The Lion King (“Spirit”) |
17 |
1 |
5/1 |
| 5 |
Wild Rose (“Glasgow (No Place Like Home)”) |
15 |
1 |
6/1 |
| 6 |
Aladdin (“Speechless”) |
4 |
0 |
25/1 |
| 7 |
Breakthrough (“I’m Standing With You”) |
3 |
0 |
35/1 |
| 8 |
Toy Story 4 (“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away”) |
3 |
0 |
35/1 |
| 9 |
Motherless Brooklyn (“Daily Battles”) |
1 |
1 |
82/1 |
| 10 |
The Black Godfather (“Letter to My Godfather”) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
| 11 |
Parasite (“A Glass of Soju”) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
Best Live Action Short
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Brotherhood |
14 |
12 |
71/20 |
| 2 |
The Neighbors’ Window |
14 |
1 |
9/2 |
| 3 |
A Sister |
13 |
0 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Little Hands |
13 |
0 |
5/1 |
| 5 |
Refugee |
12 |
0 |
6/1 |
| 6 |
Miller and Son |
5 |
1 |
14/1 |
| 7 |
Nefta Football Club |
2 |
1 |
35/1 |
| 8 |
Saria |
2 |
0 |
40/1 |
Best Animated Short
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Hair Love |
15 |
10 |
17/5 |
| 2 |
Kitbull |
15 |
3 |
19/5 |
| 3 |
The Physics of Sorrow |
15 |
1 |
4/1 |
| 4 |
Dcera Daughter |
13 |
1 |
5/1 |
| 5 |
Sister |
11 |
0 |
13/2 |
| 6 |
Hors Piste |
2 |
0 |
40/1 |
| 7 |
Mind My Mind |
2 |
0 |
40/1 |
| 8 |
Uncle Thomas: Accounting for the Days |
1 |
0 |
80/1 |
| 9 |
He Can’t Live Without Cosmos |
1 |
0 |
82/1 |
Not predicted, but nominated: Memorable.
Best Documentary Short
| NUM |
FILM |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
| 1 |
Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone |
15 |
14 |
16/5 |
| 2 |
Fire in Paradise |
15 |
1 |
39/10 |
| 3 |
Stay Close |
13 |
0 |
5/1 |
| 4 |
Walk Run Cha-Cha |
11 |
0 |
13/2 |
| 5 |
After Maria |
10 |
0 |
7/1 |
| 6 |
St. Louis Superman |
5 |
0 |
15/1 |
| 7 |
Life Overtakes Me |
4 |
0 |
20/1 |
| 8 |
The Nightcrawlers |
1 |
0 |
72/1 |
Not predicted, but nominated: In the Absence.