Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!

Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!

Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…


Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Kong: Skull Island.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: On Body and Soul.

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Garden Party, Revolting Rhymes.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Knife Skills, Traffic Stop.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99