Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!
Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!
Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…
Best Picture
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
31 |
7 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 2. |
Lady Bird |
31 |
5 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 3. |
The Shape of Water |
30 |
6 |
7/1 |
12.50 |
| 4. |
Get Out |
31 |
5 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 5. |
Dunkirk |
31 |
3 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 6. |
The Post |
31 |
4 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 7. |
Call Me By Your Name |
30 |
1 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 8. |
The Florida Project |
20 |
0 |
22/1 |
4.35 |
| 9. |
Darkest Hour |
17 |
0 |
25/1 |
3.85 |
| 10. |
The Big Sick |
19 |
0 |
28/1 |
3.45 |
| 11. |
I, Tonya |
14 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 12. |
Mudbound |
10 |
0 |
50/1 |
1.96 |
| 13. |
Phantom Thread |
5 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 14. |
Wonder Woman |
4 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 15. |
Molly’s Game |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Director
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) |
31 |
20 |
21/10 |
32.26 |
| 2. |
Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) |
31 |
8 |
10/3 |
23.08 |
| 3. |
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) |
30 |
2 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 4. |
Get Out (Jordan Peele) |
25 |
0 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 5. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) |
20 |
0 |
11/1 |
8.33 |
| 6. |
The Post (Steven Spielberg) |
12 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 7. |
Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) |
5 |
1 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 8. |
Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Nominated but not predicted: Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson).
Best Actress
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) |
31 |
23 |
15/8 |
34.78 |
| 2. |
Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) |
30 |
5 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) |
31 |
3 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 4. |
The Post (Meryl Streep) |
28 |
0 |
15/2 |
11.76 |
| 5. |
I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) |
26 |
0 |
9/1 |
10.00 |
| 6. |
Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) |
5 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
| 7. |
Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Actor
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) |
31 |
27 |
17/10 |
37.04 |
| 2. |
Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) |
31 |
4 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) |
28 |
0 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) |
25 |
0 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 5. |
The Disaster Artist (James Franco) |
23 |
0 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 6. |
The Post (Tom Hanks) |
13 |
0 |
18/1 |
5.26 |
| 7. |
Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
Split (James McAvoy) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Supporting Actress
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
I, Tonya (Allison Janney) |
30 |
17 |
12/5 |
29.41 |
| 2. |
Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) |
31 |
13 |
5/2 |
28.57 |
| 3. |
The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) |
27 |
0 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 4. |
Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) |
25 |
1 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 5. |
The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) |
19 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 6. |
Downsizing (Hong Chau) |
8 |
0 |
28/1 |
3.45 |
| 7. |
Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) |
8 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 8. |
Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) |
4 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
| 9. |
Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Novitiate (Melissa Leo) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Supporting Actor
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) |
31 |
20 |
21/10 |
32.26 |
| 2. |
The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) |
31 |
10 |
14/5 |
26.32 |
| 3. |
The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) |
26 |
0 |
7/1 |
12.50 |
| 4. |
Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) |
21 |
0 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 5. |
Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) |
14 |
1 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 6. |
All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) |
18 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 7. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) |
10 |
0 |
28/1 |
3.45 |
| 8. |
Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 9. |
The Big Sick (Ray Romano) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Adapted Screenplay
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Call Me By Your Name |
30 |
28 |
3/2 |
40.00 |
| 2. |
Mudbound |
29 |
1 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 3. |
Molly’s Game |
28 |
0 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 4. |
The Disaster Artist |
28 |
0 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 5. |
Wonder |
12 |
0 |
22/1 |
4.35 |
| 6. |
Logan |
7 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 7. |
The Beguiled |
6 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 8. |
Victoria and Abdul |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 9. |
All the Money in the World |
3 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
Wonderstruck |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 12. |
Wonder Woman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Original Screenplay
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Get Out |
29 |
14 |
5/2 |
28.57 |
| 2. |
Lady Bird |
29 |
9 |
3/1 |
25.00 |
| 3. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
28 |
6 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 4. |
The Shape of Water |
25 |
0 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 5. |
The Big Sick |
20 |
0 |
11/1 |
8.33 |
| 6. |
The Post |
14 |
0 |
16/1 |
5.88 |
| 7. |
I, Tonya |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
Darkest Hour |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Dunkirk |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Phantom Thread |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Cinematography
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
29 |
19 |
19/10 |
34.48 |
| 2. |
Dunkirk |
29 |
8 |
11/4 |
26.67 |
| 3. |
The Shape of Water |
29 |
1 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 4. |
Call Me By Your Name |
22 |
0 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 5. |
Darkest Hour |
15 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 6. |
Mudbound |
14 |
0 |
18/1 |
5.26 |
| 7. |
Wonder Wheel |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Wonderstruck |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
The Florida Project |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
Get Out |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Costume Design
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Phantom Thread |
27 |
23 |
17/10 |
37.04 |
| 2. |
Beauty and the Beast |
27 |
3 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
The Greatest Showman |
24 |
0 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 4. |
Darkest Hour |
21 |
0 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 5. |
The Shape of Water |
17 |
1 |
9/1 |
10.00 |
| 6. |
Victoria and Abdul |
8 |
0 |
28/1 |
3.45 |
| 7. |
Murder on the Orient Express |
4 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
| 8. |
The Beguiled |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 9. |
Wonderstruck |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
Wonder Woman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 12. |
The Post |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Film Editing
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Dunkirk |
27 |
25 |
8/5 |
38.46 |
| 2. |
The Shape of Water |
26 |
1 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 3. |
Get Out |
25 |
1 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
17 |
0 |
9/1 |
10.00 |
| 5. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
13 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 6. |
Baby Driver |
13 |
0 |
16/1 |
5.88 |
| 7. |
The Post |
6 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 8. |
Lady Bird |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 9. |
Darkest Hour |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Call Me By Your Name |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
I, Tonya |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 12. |
Mother! |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Darkest Hour |
26 |
24 |
10/11 |
52.38 |
| 2. |
Wonder |
18 |
1 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 3. |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 |
17 |
1 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 4. |
I, Tonya |
12 |
0 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 5. |
Victoria and Abdul |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Production Design
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
The Shape of Water |
27 |
15 |
9/4 |
30.77 |
| 2. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
27 |
9 |
3/1 |
25.00 |
| 3. |
Dunkirk |
23 |
2 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Beauty and the Beast |
17 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 5. |
Darkest Hour |
16 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 6. |
Phantom Thread |
13 |
0 |
16/1 |
5.88 |
| 7. |
The Greatest Showman |
6 |
1 |
25/1 |
3.85 |
| 8. |
The Post |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 9. |
Downsizing |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
Wonder Woman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
War for the Planet of the Apes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Score
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
The Shape of Water |
26 |
15 |
12/5 |
29.41 |
| 2. |
Dunkirk |
26 |
10 |
14/5 |
26.32 |
| 3. |
Phantom Thread |
24 |
2 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 4. |
The Post |
15 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 5. |
Darkest Hour |
16 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 6. |
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
7 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 7. |
Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
7 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 8. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
5 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 9. |
Coco |
5 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 10. |
Victoria and Abdul |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
Wonder Woman |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 12. |
War for the Planet of the Apes |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Song
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Coco (Remember Me) |
26 |
23 |
7/4 |
36.36 |
| 2. |
The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) |
26 |
3 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 3. |
Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) |
23 |
1 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) |
24 |
0 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 5. |
Marshall (Stand Up for Something) |
17 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 6. |
Mudbound (Mighty River) |
14 |
0 |
16/1 |
5.88 |
| 7. |
The Promise (The Promise (song)) |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 8. |
Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Sound Editing
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Dunkirk |
27 |
27 |
3/2 |
40.00 |
| 2. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
27 |
0 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 3. |
Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
21 |
0 |
7/1 |
12.50 |
| 4. |
Baby Driver |
23 |
0 |
7/1 |
12.50 |
| 5. |
The Shape of Water |
16 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 6. |
War for the Planet of the Apes |
15 |
0 |
14/1 |
6.67 |
| 7. |
Wonder Woman |
4 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
| 8. |
Beauty and the Beast |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Sound Mixing
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Dunkirk |
27 |
22 |
9/5 |
35.71 |
| 2. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
25 |
4 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 3. |
The Shape of Water |
24 |
0 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
22 |
0 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 5. |
Baby Driver |
19 |
0 |
10/1 |
9.09 |
| 6. |
War for the Planet of the Apes |
6 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 7. |
The Greatest Showman |
5 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 8. |
Wonder Woman |
3 |
1 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 9. |
Beauty and the Beast |
4 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
Best Visual Effects
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
War for the Planet of the Apes |
27 |
21 |
15/8 |
34.78 |
| 2. |
Blade Runner 2049 |
26 |
5 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
Star Wars: The Last Jedi |
27 |
0 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 4. |
Dunkirk |
26 |
1 |
13/2 |
13.33 |
| 5. |
The Shape of Water |
23 |
0 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 6. |
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 7. |
Okja |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Nominated but not predicted: Kong: Skull Island.
Best Animated Feature
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Coco |
26 |
26 |
3/2 |
40.00 |
| 2. |
The Breadwinner |
26 |
0 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 3. |
Loving Vincent |
26 |
0 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 4. |
The Lego Batman Movie |
23 |
0 |
15/2 |
11.76 |
| 5. |
Ferdinand |
18 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 6. |
Mary and the Witch’s Flower |
6 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 7. |
Captain Underpants |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
Despicable Me 3 |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Boss Baby |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 10. |
In This Corner of The World |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Best Documentary Feature
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Jane |
27 |
21 |
15/8 |
34.78 |
| 2. |
Faces Places |
26 |
3 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 3. |
City of Ghosts |
25 |
2 |
5/1 |
16.67 |
| 4. |
Last Men in Aleppo |
22 |
0 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 5. |
Icarus |
19 |
0 |
11/1 |
8.33 |
| 6. |
Strong Island |
6 |
0 |
33/1 |
2.94 |
| 7. |
Human Flow |
2 |
1 |
50/1 |
1.96 |
| 8. |
LA 92 |
2 |
0 |
66/1 |
1.49 |
| 9. |
Chasing Coral |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
| 10. |
Ex Libris: The New York Public Library |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 11. |
An Inconvenient Sequel |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 12. |
One of Us |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Nominated but not predicted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.
Best Foreign Language Film
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
A Fantastic Woman |
26 |
14 |
12/5 |
29.41 |
| 2. |
The Square |
25 |
5 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
Foxtrot |
25 |
3 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 4. |
In the Fade |
23 |
4 |
11/2 |
15.38 |
| 5. |
Loveless |
23 |
0 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 6. |
The Insult |
5 |
0 |
40/1 |
2.44 |
| 7. |
The Wound |
2 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 8. |
Felicite |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
Nominated but not predicted: On Body and Soul.
Best Animated Short
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
In a Heartbeat |
21 |
14 |
23/10 |
30.30 |
| 2. |
Dear Basketball |
22 |
7 |
3/1 |
25.00 |
| 3. |
Cradle |
19 |
1 |
6/1 |
14.29 |
| 4. |
Negative Space |
22 |
0 |
15/2 |
11.76 |
| 5. |
Lou |
18 |
0 |
9/1 |
10.00 |
| 6. |
Lost Property Office |
4 |
1 |
22/1 |
4.35 |
| 7. |
Fox and the Whale |
6 |
0 |
28/1 |
3.45 |
| 8. |
Life Smartphone |
3 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
Nominated but not predicted: Garden Party, Revolting Rhymes.
Best Documentary Short
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
Alone |
21 |
15 |
11/5 |
31.25 |
| 2. |
Heroin(e) |
22 |
3 |
7/2 |
22.22 |
| 3. |
Ten Meter Tower |
21 |
2 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 4. |
116 Cameras |
19 |
0 |
8/1 |
11.11 |
| 5. |
Edith+Eddie |
18 |
1 |
17/2 |
10.53 |
| 6. |
Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 |
4 |
1 |
25/1 |
3.85 |
| 7. |
Ram Dass, Going Home |
3 |
0 |
50/1 |
1.96 |
| 8. |
Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets |
2 |
0 |
80/1 |
1.23 |
Nominated but not predicted: Knife Skills, Traffic Stop.
Best Live Action Short
| NUM |
NAME |
NOM |
WIN |
ODDS |
PTS |
| 1. |
DeKalb Elementary |
18 |
15 |
2/1 |
33.33 |
| 2. |
The Silent Child |
19 |
3 |
4/1 |
20.00 |
| 3. |
Watu Wote / All of Us |
19 |
1 |
9/2 |
18.18 |
| 4. |
My Nephew Emmett |
18 |
0 |
15/2 |
11.76 |
| 5. |
Rise of a Star |
14 |
0 |
12/1 |
7.69 |
| 6. |
Facing Mecca |
8 |
0 |
20/1 |
4.76 |
| 7. |
Witnesses |
1 |
1 |
50/1 |
1.96 |
| 8. |
The Eleven O’Clock |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |
| 9. |
Lost Face |
1 |
0 |
100/1 |
0.99 |