As you may know from some of my past posts, I’m a bit a of a movie enthusiast. So much so that I enjoy trying to complete the Oscars Death Race each year - watching every movie nominated in every category at the Oscars before the big ceremony. I try to take it one step further and watch them all in theaters, if possible.1

To help me with this, I make a list early each year of the movies most likely to be nominated to help ensure I can watch them before they leave theaters. It’s not always perfect, but it helps me get a big headstart.2

Using data from GoldDerby, it looks like there are about 78 feature films that have a chance of being nominated this year!

The big list

To make this list, I downloaded GoldDerby’s list of movies with a chance of being nominated in any category, removed all duplicates and short films, and sorted it by highest category. I also included the “points” total for each movie, which tells you how strong of a contender it is across all categories. For more explanation of the math behind that, check the next section with a snapshot of the movies and odds in all 23 categories listed below.

Of the 56 I’ve seen: I saw 53 in theaters and 3 at home.3

Of the 22 I haven’t seen: 4 have not been released yet4, 2 had a very limited theatrical release but I missed them5, 5 are now on my watchlist, and 11 are in minor categories that I don’t prioritize right now (Best Documentary or Best Song).

Sort Film Highest Possible Category Total Possible Categories Points Status
1. The Power of the Dog Best Picture 12 194.88 Watched (theater)
2. Belfast Best Picture 11 129.05 Watched (theater)
3. West Side Story Best Picture 13 150.58 Watched (theater)
4. King Richard Best Picture 7 90.43 Watched (theater)
5. Dune Best Picture 12 203.39 Watched (theater)
6. Licorice Pizza Best Picture 8 65.92 Watched (theater)
7. CODA Best Picture 8 54.55 Watched (theater)
8. The Tragedy of Macbeth Best Picture 11 67.72 Watched (theater)
9. Don’t Look Up Best Picture 9 58.41 Watched (theater)
10. tick, tick… Boom! Best Picture 4 34.78 Watched (theater)
11. The Lost Daughter Best Picture 6 45.86 Watched (theater)
12. Nightmare Alley Best Picture 9 53.66 Watched (theater)
13. Spider-Man: No Way Home Best Picture 3 21.1 Watched (theater)
14. Drive My Car Best Picture 4 37.03 Watched (theater)
15. Spencer Best Picture 6 43.96 Watched (theater)
16. Being the Ricardos Best Picture 5 39.25 Watched (theater)
17. Parallel Mothers Best Picture 5 24.45 Watched (theater)
18. Cyrano Best Picture 8 25.81 Not released yet
19. House of Gucci Best Picture 5 58.14 Watched (theater)
20. No Time to Die Best Picture 7 50.02 Watched (theater)
21. Pig Best Picture 4 4.29 Watched (theater)
22. The French Dispatch Best Picture 6 34.77 Watched (theater)
23. Titane Best Director 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
24. The Eyes of Tammy Faye Best Actress 2 37.36 Watched (theater)
25. Respect Best Actress 2 11.45 Watched (theater)
26. Jockey Best Actor 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
27. Red Rocket Best Actor 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
28. Passing Best Supporting Actress 2 13.89 Not watched
29. Mass Best Supporting Actress 3 9.76 Not watched
30. The Tender Bar Best Supporting Actor 1 2.63 Watched (theater)
31. The Humans Best Supporting Actor 2 3.03 Not watched
32. C’mon C’mon Best Original Screenplay 1 2.04 Watched (theater)
33. The Worst Person in the World Best Original Screenplay 2 19.55 Not released yet
34. The Hand of God Best Original Screenplay 2 17.66 Watched (theater)
35. A Hero Best Original Screenplay 2 19.17 Watched (theater)
36. Flee Best International Film 3 56.77 Watched (theater)
37. I’m Your Man Best International Film 1 2.22 Watched (theater)
38. Compartment No. 6 Best International Film 1 1.45 Not released yet
39. Prayers for the Stolen Best International Film 1 0.99 Not watched
40. Lamb Best International Film 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
41. Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom Best International Film 1 0.99 Not watched
42. Luca Best Animated Feature 1 20.83 Watched (at home)
43. Encanto Best Animated Feature 3 45.73 Watched (theater)
44. The Mitchells vs the Machines Best Animated Feature 1 20 Not watched
45. Raya and the Last Dragon Best Animated Feature 1 14.29 Watched (at home)
46. Belle Best Animated Feature 1 4.35 Watched (theater)
47. Sing 2 Best Animated Feature 2 4.22 Watched (theater)
48. The Summit of the Gods Best Animated Feature 1 0.99 Not watched
49. Summer of Soul Best Documentary Feature 1 22.22 Not watched
50. The Rescue Best Documentary Feature 1 16.67 Watched (theater)
51. Procession Best Documentary Feature 1 11.11 Not watched
52. Ascension Best Documentary Feature 1 9.52 Not watched
53. Attica Best Documentary Feature 1 4.76 Not watched
54. The First Wave Best Documentary Feature 1 4.35 Not watched
55. Julia Best Documentary Feature 1 3.23 Not watched
56. The Velvet Underground Best Documentary Feature 1 3.23 Not watched
57. In the Same Breath Best Documentary Feature 1 2.22 Not watched
58. Writing with Fire Best Documentary Feature 1 1.49 Not released yet
59. Faya Dayi Best Documentary Feature 1 0.99 Not watched
60. The Green Knight Best Cinematography 1 1.37 Watched (theater)
61. Last Night in Soho Best Film Editing 2 2.44 Watched (theater)
62. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings Best Visual Effects 1 16.67 Watched (theater)
63. The Matrix Resurrections Best Visual Effects 1 15.38 Watched (theater)
64. Godzilla vs. Kong Best Visual Effects 1 7.69 Watched (theater)
65. Eternals Best Visual Effects 1 7.14 Watched (theater)
66. Free Guy Best Visual Effects 1 4.76 Watched (theater)
67. Black Widow Best Visual Effects 1 1.41 Watched (theater)
68. Ghostbusters: Afterlife Best Visual Effects 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
69. Cruella Best Production Design 3 43.11 Watched (theater)
70. The Last Duel Best Production Design 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
71. Coming 2 America Best Costume Design 2 3.12 Watched (at home)
72. The Suicide Squad Best Makeup and Hairstyling 1 5.88 Watched (theater)
73. A Quiet Place Part II Best Sound 1 4.35 Watched (theater)
74. The Harder They Fall Best Score 2 8.01 Watched (theater)
75. Annette Best Song 1 2.22 Not watched
76. Bruised Best Song 1 1.45 Not watched
77. Four Good Days Best Song 1 0.99 Watched (theater)
78. Dear Evan Hansen Best Song 1 0.99 Watched (theater)

Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for each of the individual 23 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on January 22.

As in past years, I omitted movie for which 0 experts predict a nomination or win; only movies that at least one expert thinks might be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability based on the odds. It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.

Shortcuts

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 12 7/1 12.5
2 Belfast 26 7 15/2 11.76
3 West Side Story 26 4 8/1 11.11
4 King Richard 26 2 17/2 10.53
5 Dune 26 2 9/1 10
6 Licorice Pizza 25 0 10/1 9.09
7 CODA 25 0 21/2 8.7
8 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 18/1 5.26
9 Don’t Look Up 16 0 20/1 4.76
10 tick, tick… Boom! 14 0 25/1 3.85
11 The Lost Daughter 7 0 46/1 2.13
12 Nightmare Alley 6 0 48/1 2.04
13 Spider-Man: No Way Home 5 0 66/1 1.49
14 Drive My Car 4 0 78/1 1.27
15 Spencer 3 0 97/1 1.02
16 Being the Ricardos 3 0 100/1 0.99
17 Parallel Mothers 2 0 100/1 0.99
18 Cyrano 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 House of Gucci 2 0 100/1 0.99
20 No Time to Die 2 0 100/1 0.99
21 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
22 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) 27 25 16/5 23.81
2 Dune (Denis Villeneuve) 23 1 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) 20 1 6/1 14.29
4 West Side Story (Steven Spielberg) 20 0 6/1 14.29
5 Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) 18 0 7/1 12.5
6 Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 CODA (Sian Heder) 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro) 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) 2 0 75/1 1.32
12 Cyrano (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Titane (Julia Ducournau) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman) 26 6 4/1 20
2 Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman) 21 9 5/1 16.67
3 Spencer (Kristen Stewart) 21 8 5/1 16.67
4 The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain) 22 2 11/2 15.38
5 House of Gucci (Lady Gaga) 20 1 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers (Penelope Cruz) 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Respect (Jennifer Hudson) 5 0 28/1 3.45
8 West Side Story (Rachel Zegler) 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza (Alana Haim) 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 CODA (Emilia Jones) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Frances McDormand) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 King Richard (Will Smith) 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch) 27 5 19/5 20.83
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Denzel Washington) 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield) 25 2 9/2 18.18
5 Cyrano (Peter Dinklage) 15 0 9/1 10
6 Being the Ricardos (Javier Bardem) 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Nightmare Alley (Bradley Cooper) 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Don’t Look Up (Leonardo DiCaprio) 2 0 72/1 1.37
9 Pig (Nicolas Cage) 2 0 75/1 1.32
10 Jockey (Clifton Collins, Jr) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Dune (Timothee Chalamet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Red Rocket (Simon Rex) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 West Side Story (Ariana DeBose) 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 The Power of the Dog (Kirsten Dunst) 27 6 39/10 20.41
3 King Richard (Aunjanue Ellis) 24 3 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast (Caitriona Balfe) 22 0 11/2 15.38
5 Passing (Ruth Negga) 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 CODA (Marlee Matlin) 7 1 20/1 4.76
7 Mass (Ann Dowd) 6 1 22/1 4.35
8 West Side Story (Rita Moreno) 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 The Lost Daughter (Jessie Buckley) 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Don’t Look Up (Cate Blanchett) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Kodi Smit-McPhee) 27 20 10/3 23.08
2 CODA (Troy Kotsur) 23 3 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Ciaran Hinds) 17 1 7/1 12.5
4 Licorice Pizza (Bradley Cooper) 14 0 19/2 9.52
5 House of Gucci (Jared Leto) 13 1 19/2 9.52
6 Belfast (Jamie Dornan) 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 West Side Story (Mike Faist) 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Power of the Dog (Jesse Plemons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
9 Being the Ricardos (J.K. Simmons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
10 Mass (Jason Isaacs) 4 0 37/1 2.63
11 The Tender Bar (Ben Affleck) 4 0 37/1 2.63
12 The Humans (Richard Jenkins) 3 0 48/1 2.04
13 Pig (Alex Wolff) 1 1 100/1 0.99
14 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Corey Hawkins) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 The French Dispatch (Jeffrey Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Licorice Pizza 26 15 37/10 21.28
2 Belfast 24 9 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up 20 1 6/1 14.29
5 Being the Ricardos 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Mass 4 0 35/1 2.78
8 C’mon C’mon 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 The Worst Person in the World 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Hand of God 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Hero 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 22 82/25 23.36
2 The Lost Daughter 26 4 4/1 20
3 CODA 26 0 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 17 0 15/2 11.76
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Drive My Car 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 Dune 7 1 20/1 4.76
8 Nightmare Alley 6 0 22/1 4.35
9 Passing 4 0 35/1 2.78
10 Cyrano 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Humans 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Drive My Car 25 22 82/25 23.36
2 Flee 25 0 9/2 18.18
3 A Hero 23 0 9/2 18.18
4 The Worst Person in the World 22 3 9/2 18.18
5 The Hand of God 22 0 5/1 16.67
6 I’m Your Man 3 0 44/1 2.22
7 Compartment No. 6 2 0 68/1 1.45
8 Prayers for the Stolen 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Lamb 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Luca 26 8 19/5 20.83
2 Encanto 25 10 39/10 20.41
3 The Mitchells vs the Machines 25 3 4/1 20
4 Flee 23 4 9/2 18.18
5 Raya and the Last Dragon 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Belle 6 0 22/1 4.35
7 Sing 2 4 1 30/1 3.23
8 The Summit of the Gods 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Summer of Soul 25 14 7/2 22.22
2 Flee 24 8 39/10 20.41
3 The Rescue 22 0 5/1 16.67
4 Procession 15 0 8/1 11.11
5 Ascension 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 Attica 6 1 20/1 4.76
7 The First Wave 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Julia 4 1 30/1 3.23
9 The Velvet Underground 4 1 30/1 3.23
10 In the Same Breath 3 0 44/1 2.22
11 Writing with Fire 2 0 66/1 1.49
12 Faya Dayi 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 19 69/20 22.47
2 The Power of the Dog 27 4 39/10 20.41
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth 25 2 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 21 2 11/2 15.38
5 Belfast 19 0 13/2 13.33
6 Nightmare Alley 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 The Green Knight 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Spencer 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Cyrano 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 13 71/20 21.98
2 The Power of the Dog 25 2 9/2 18.18
3 Belfast 21 6 5/1 16.67
4 West Side Story 16 3 15/2 11.76
5 Licorice Pizza 13 1 10/1 9.09
6 Don’t Look Up 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Nightmare Alley 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 King Richard 2 1 60/1 1.64
9 Last Night in Soho 2 0 68/1 1.45
10 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 tick, tick… Boom! 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 CODA 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 25 16/5 23.81
2 Spider-Man: No Way Home 23 0 5/1 16.67
3 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 23 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Matrix Resurrections 21 1 11/2 15.38
5 Godzilla vs. Kong 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Eternals 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Free Guy 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 No Time to Die 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Black Widow 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 Ghostbusters: Afterlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 Nightmare Alley 24 6 9/2 18.18
3 West Side Story 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 The French Dispatch 19 2 6/1 14.29
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Cyrano 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Spencer 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Belfast 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Cruella 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Power of the Dog 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Licorice Pizza 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Last Duel 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Cruella 25 16 18/5 21.74
2 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
3 Dune 21 3 11/2 15.38
4 Spencer 18 4 6/1 14.29
5 West Side Story 15 1 8/1 11.11
6 Nightmare Alley 13 0 10/1 9.09
7 Cyrano 7 1 18/1 5.26
8 The French Dispatch 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Coming 2 America 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Lost Daughter 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Eyes of Tammy Faye 24 17 71/20 21.98
2 Dune 25 4 39/10 20.41
3 Cruella 24 3 4/1 20
4 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
5 West Side Story 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 The Suicide Squad 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Nightmare Alley 4 0 33/1 2.94
8 Coming 2 America 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Cyrano 2 0 68/1 1.45

Best Sound

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 21 82/25 23.36
2 No Time to Die 27 0 4/1 20
3 West Side Story 24 5 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast 18 0 7/1 12.5
5 tick, tick… Boom! 17 0 15/2 11.76
6 The Power of the Dog 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 A Quiet Place Part II 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Spider-Man: No Way Home 4 1 33/1 2.94
9 Last Night in Soho 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 25 13 7/2 22.22
2 Dune 24 11 19/5 20.83
3 The French Dispatch 20 1 11/2 15.38
4 Don’t Look Up 17 0 7/1 12.5
5 Parallel Mothers 11 0 11/1 8.33
6 Spencer 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Encanto 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 No Time to Die 4 0 33/1 2.94
9 The Harder They Fall 3 0 46/1 2.13
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 No Time to Die (“No Time to Die”) 25 13 71/20 21.98
2 Encanto (“Dos Oruguitas”) 22 4 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard (“Be Alive”) 21 6 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up (“Just Look Up”) 20 1 11/2 15.38
5 Respect (“Here I Am Singing My Way Home”) 11 0 23/2 8
6 The Harder They Fall (“Guns Go Bang”) 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Belfast (“Down to Joy”) 7 0 18/1 5.26
8 CODA (“Beyond the Shore”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 Annette (“So May We Start”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
10 Bruised (“Automatic Woman”) 2 0 68/1 1.45
11 Sing 2 (“Your Song Saved My Life”) 1 1 100/1 0.99
12 Four Good Days (“Somehow You Do”) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Dear Evan Hansen (“The Anonymous Ones”) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Long Goodbye 22 4 39/10 20.41
2 When the Sun Sets 19 12 4/1 20
3 Tala’vision 18 2 11/2 15.38
4 Frimas 16 1 6/1 14.29
5 Censor of Dreams 15 0 7/1 12.5
6 You’re Dead Helen 7 0 16/1 5.88
7 The Criminals 3 2 33/1 2.94
8 Under the Heavens 2 0 54/1 1.82
9 Les Grandes Claques 2 0 54/1 1.82
10 The Dress 1 1 90/1 1.1
11 Distances 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Stenofonen 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Ala Kachuu: Take and Run 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 On My Mind 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Please Hold 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Us Again 20 15 19/5 20.83
2 The Windshield Wiper 18 0 5/1 16.67
3 Step Into the River 16 1 6/1 14.29
4 Only a Child 16 1 13/2 13.33
5 Robin Robin 15 1 13/2 13.33
6 Namoo 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 The Musician 6 0 18/1 5.26
8 Affairs of the Art 3 1 35/1 2.78
9 Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice 2 1 48/1 2.04
10 Flowing Home 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 Bestia 2 0 58/1 1.69
12 Boxballet 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Mum is Pouring Rain 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Bad Seeds 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Souvenir Souvenir 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Three Songs for Benazir 20 11 4/1 20
2 The Queen of Basketball 19 6 9/2 18.18
3 Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker 17 2 11/2 15.38
4 Terror Contagion 17 0 6/1 14.29
5 When We Were Bullies 16 1 13/2 13.33
6 Audible 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis 5 0 22/1 4.35
8 Lead Me Home 2 0 56/1 1.75
9 Day of Rage 2 0 58/1 1.69
10 Lynching Postcards 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 The Facility 2 0 60/1 1.64
12 Takeover 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 A Broken House 1 0 100/1 0.99

  1. Of course, I only ventured into theaters over the past year after being fully vaccinated, wearing a mask every time, and going during off-peak times. ↩︎

  2. I didn’t make a list like this last year because theaters were closed entirely due to COVID-19. Every movie was able to watch at home via streaming or purchase, but I just didn’t feel compelled to watch many of them throughout 2020. But then, with about a week before the Oscars ceremony, I got the bug and decided to try to catch up. I remember having to watch a ridiculous number of movies in a very short time span (including 18 movies over the final 3 days!), but I somehow did manage to complete the Oscars Death Race for one more year. Streak intact! ↩︎

  3. I only saw Luca, Raya and the Last Dragon, and Coming 2 America at home because they never got a theatrical release at all. The first two were fantastic and I so wish I could’ve seen them on the big screen for the first time. I’ve been holding out on watching The Mitchells vs The Machines for the same reason - it supposedly had a brief theatrical release at limited “nationwide” theaters in November to increase Oscar buzz - but apparently not at a single theater on the East Coast(?!). ↩︎

  4. Cyrano was supposed to come out in January, but has been delayed to Feb 28. The Worst Person in the World and Compartment No. 6 are international films that will get released closer to the Oscar ceremony, likely to capitalize on possible nominations buzz, as is typical each year. And Writing With Fire looks like it never got a theatrical release but will be released on VOD on 3/1/22. (It’s a documentary about an Indian newspaper run by Dalit women using smartphones - I hadn’t heard about it until making this list and now I really wish it were available to watch now!) ↩︎

  5. Passing and Mass. They both came out for only a week or two at theaters far from me and were gone before I realized I should make the trip because they might be Oscar contenders. This has been a particular challenge with direct-to-Netflix films, of which there are more than ever this year. They usually only get an extremely limited release in select theaters for 1-2 weeks. I realize most people happily watch them on Netflix at home, but I strongly prefer the theatrical experience. At least I’d heard a LOT of buzz about The Power of the Dog before it came out, so even though it was only playing at one theater in DC, I made a point of making the drive to see it. While I was there, I also saw two other Netflix films that I hadn’t heard about before but were also only playing at this theater - The Lost Daughter and The Hand of God. I’m really glad I did, because they were great (especially the former) and never did come out anywhere else! ↩︎