It’s Oscar nominations day! As an avid Oscars Death Racer, this is like the Super Bowl for us.1

As is tradition, I’ve annotated the predictions data from my last post because I find it interesting to see what all the snubs and surprises actually are.

All movies that actually received nominations are now in bold. There was only one nomination, in Best Supporting Actress, that no one expected to be nominated just two short weeks ago (Judi Dench for Belfast).2

In a refreshing change, it appears that 4(!) international films are nominated in categories outside Best International Film:

  • Drive My Car (Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Film)
  • The Worst Person in the World (Original Screenplay, International Film)
  • Parallel Mothers (Actress, Score)
  • Flee (the trifecta: Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Film!)

Shortcuts

Best Picture

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 12 7/1 12.5
2 Belfast 26 7 15/2 11.76
3 West Side Story 26 4 8/1 11.11
4 King Richard 26 2 17/2 10.53
5 Dune 26 2 9/1 10
6 Licorice Pizza 25 0 10/1 9.09
7 CODA 25 0 21/2 8.7
8 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 18/1 5.26
9 Don’t Look Up 16 0 20/1 4.76
10 tick, tick… Boom! 14 0 25/1 3.85
11 The Lost Daughter 7 0 46/1 2.13
12 Nightmare Alley 6 0 48/1 2.04
13 Spider-Man: No Way Home 5 0 66/1 1.49
14 Drive My Car 4 0 78/1 1.27
15 Spencer 3 0 97/1 1.02
16 Being the Ricardos 3 0 100/1 0.99
17 Parallel Mothers 2 0 100/1 0.99
18 Cyrano 2 0 100/1 0.99
19 House of Gucci 2 0 100/1 0.99
20 No Time to Die 2 0 100/1 0.99
21 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
22 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion) 27 25 16/5 23.81
2 Dune (Denis Villeneuve) 23 1 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Kenneth Branagh) 20 1 6/1 14.29
4 West Side Story (Steven Spielberg) 20 0 6/1 14.29
5 Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson) 18 0 7/1 12.5
6 Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi) 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 CODA (Sian Heder) 3 0 48/1 2.04
8 Parallel Mothers (Pedro Almodovar) 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Nightmare Alley (Guillermo Del Toro) 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal) 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Joel Coen) 2 0 75/1 1.32
12 Cyrano (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay) 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 King Richard (Reinaldo Marcus Green) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Titane (Julia Ducournau) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Lost Daughter (Olivia Colman) 26 6 4/1 20
2 Being the Ricardos (Nicole Kidman) 21 9 5/1 16.67
3 Spencer (Kristen Stewart) 21 8 5/1 16.67
4 The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Jessica Chastain) 22 2 11/2 15.38
5 House of Gucci (Lady Gaga) 20 1 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers (Penelope Cruz) 12 1 11/1 8.33
7 Respect (Jennifer Hudson) 5 0 28/1 3.45
8 West Side Story (Rachel Zegler) 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza (Alana Haim) 3 0 48/1 2.04
10 CODA (Emilia Jones) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Frances McDormand) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 King Richard (Will Smith) 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 The Power of the Dog (Benedict Cumberbatch) 27 5 19/5 20.83
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Denzel Washington) 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 tick, tick… Boom! (Andrew Garfield) 25 2 9/2 18.18
5 Cyrano (Peter Dinklage) 15 0 9/1 10
6 Being the Ricardos (Javier Bardem) 6 0 25/1 3.85
7 Nightmare Alley (Bradley Cooper) 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Don’t Look Up (Leonardo DiCaprio) 2 0 72/1 1.37
9 Pig (Nicolas Cage) 2 0 75/1 1.32
10 Jockey (Clifton Collins, Jr) 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 Dune (Timothee Chalamet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Red Rocket (Simon Rex) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 West Side Story (Ariana DeBose) 26 16 37/10 21.28
2 The Power of the Dog (Kirsten Dunst) 27 6 39/10 20.41
3 King Richard (Aunjanue Ellis) 24 3 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast (Caitriona Balfe) 22 0 11/2 15.38
5 Passing (Ruth Negga) 16 0 8/1 11.11
6 CODA (Marlee Matlin) 7 1 20/1 4.76
7 Mass (Ann Dowd) 6 1 22/1 4.35
8 West Side Story (Rita Moreno) 4 0 37/1 2.63
9 The Lost Daughter (Jessie Buckley) 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Don’t Look Up (Cate Blanchett) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Not predicted, but nominated: The Power of the Dog (Judi Dench).

Best Supporting Actor

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog (Kodi Smit-McPhee) 27 20 10/3 23.08
2 CODA (Troy Kotsur) 23 3 5/1 16.67
3 Belfast (Ciaran Hinds) 17 1 7/1 12.5
4 Licorice Pizza (Bradley Cooper) 14 0 19/2 9.52
5 House of Gucci (Jared Leto) 13 1 19/2 9.52
6 Belfast (Jamie Dornan) 10 1 13/1 7.14
7 West Side Story (Mike Faist) 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 The Power of the Dog (Jesse Plemons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
9 Being the Ricardos (J.K. Simmons) 5 0 28/1 3.45
10 Mass (Jason Isaacs) 4 0 37/1 2.63
11 The Tender Bar (Ben Affleck) 4 0 37/1 2.63
12 The Humans (Richard Jenkins) 3 0 48/1 2.04
13 Pig (Alex Wolff) 1 1 100/1 0.99
14 The Tragedy of Macbeth (Corey Hawkins) 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 The French Dispatch (Jeffrey Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Licorice Pizza 26 15 37/10 21.28
2 Belfast 24 9 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard 26 2 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up 20 1 6/1 14.29
5 Being the Ricardos 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Parallel Mothers 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Mass 4 0 35/1 2.78
8 C’mon C’mon 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 The Worst Person in the World 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 Pig 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 The Hand of God 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 A Hero 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 27 22 82/25 23.36
2 The Lost Daughter 26 4 4/1 20
3 CODA 26 0 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 17 0 15/2 11.76
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Drive My Car 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 Dune 7 1 20/1 4.76
8 Nightmare Alley 6 0 22/1 4.35
9 Passing 4 0 35/1 2.78
10 Cyrano 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 The Humans 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best International Film

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Drive My Car 25 22 82/25 23.36
2 Flee 25 0 9/2 18.18
3 A Hero 23 0 9/2 18.18
4 The Worst Person in the World 22 3 9/2 18.18
5 The Hand of God 22 0 5/1 16.67
6 I’m Your Man 3 0 44/1 2.22
7 Compartment No. 6 2 0 68/1 1.45
8 Prayers for the Stolen 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 Lamb 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Luca 26 8 19/5 20.83
2 Encanto 25 10 39/10 20.41
3 The Mitchells vs the Machines 25 3 4/1 20
4 Flee 23 4 9/2 18.18
5 Raya and the Last Dragon 20 0 6/1 14.29
6 Belle 6 0 22/1 4.35
7 Sing 2 4 1 30/1 3.23
8 The Summit of the Gods 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Summer of Soul 25 14 7/2 22.22
2 Flee 24 8 39/10 20.41
3 The Rescue 22 0 5/1 16.67
4 Procession 15 0 8/1 11.11
5 Ascension 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 Attica 6 1 20/1 4.76
7 The First Wave 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Julia 4 1 30/1 3.23
9 The Velvet Underground 4 1 30/1 3.23
10 In the Same Breath 3 0 44/1 2.22
11 Writing with Fire 2 0 66/1 1.49
12 Faya Dayi 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 19 69/20 22.47
2 The Power of the Dog 27 4 39/10 20.41
3 The Tragedy of Macbeth 25 2 9/2 18.18
4 West Side Story 21 2 11/2 15.38
5 Belfast 19 0 13/2 13.33
6 Nightmare Alley 11 0 13/1 7.14
7 The Green Knight 2 0 72/1 1.37
8 Spencer 1 0 100/1 0.99
9 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
10 Cyrano 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 13 71/20 21.98
2 The Power of the Dog 25 2 9/2 18.18
3 Belfast 21 6 5/1 16.67
4 West Side Story 16 3 15/2 11.76
5 Licorice Pizza 13 1 10/1 9.09
6 Don’t Look Up 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Nightmare Alley 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 King Richard 2 1 60/1 1.64
9 Last Night in Soho 2 0 68/1 1.45
10 The French Dispatch 1 0 100/1 0.99
11 No Time to Die 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 tick, tick… Boom! 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 CODA 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Visual Effects

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 26 25 16/5 23.81
2 Spider-Man: No Way Home 23 0 5/1 16.67
3 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings 23 0 5/1 16.67
4 The Matrix Resurrections 21 1 11/2 15.38
5 Godzilla vs. Kong 11 0 12/1 7.69
6 Eternals 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Free Guy 7 0 20/1 4.76
8 No Time to Die 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Black Widow 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 Ghostbusters: Afterlife 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 18 17/5 22.73
2 Nightmare Alley 24 6 9/2 18.18
3 West Side Story 24 1 5/1 16.67
4 The French Dispatch 19 2 6/1 14.29
5 The Tragedy of Macbeth 18 0 15/2 11.76
6 Cyrano 7 0 20/1 4.76
7 Spencer 6 0 25/1 3.85
8 Belfast 3 0 48/1 2.04
9 Cruella 2 0 72/1 1.37
10 The Power of the Dog 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Licorice Pizza 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Last Duel 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Don’t Look Up 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Cruella 25 16 18/5 21.74
2 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
3 Dune 21 3 11/2 15.38
4 Spencer 18 4 6/1 14.29
5 West Side Story 15 1 8/1 11.11
6 Nightmare Alley 13 0 10/1 9.09
7 Cyrano 7 1 18/1 5.26
8 The French Dispatch 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Licorice Pizza 2 0 70/1 1.41
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 2 0 72/1 1.37
11 Coming 2 America 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 The Lost Daughter 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Eyes of Tammy Faye 24 17 71/20 21.98
2 Dune 25 4 39/10 20.41
3 Cruella 24 3 4/1 20
4 House of Gucci 22 1 5/1 16.67
5 West Side Story 13 0 19/2 9.52
6 The Suicide Squad 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Nightmare Alley 4 0 33/1 2.94
8 Coming 2 America 3 0 46/1 2.13
9 Cyrano 2 0 68/1 1.45

Best Sound

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Dune 27 21 82/25 23.36
2 No Time to Die 27 0 4/1 20
3 West Side Story 24 5 9/2 18.18
4 Belfast 18 0 7/1 12.5
5 tick, tick… Boom! 17 0 15/2 11.76
6 The Power of the Dog 8 0 18/1 5.26
7 A Quiet Place Part II 6 0 22/1 4.35
8 Spider-Man: No Way Home 4 1 33/1 2.94
9 Last Night in Soho 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Power of the Dog 25 13 7/2 22.22
2 Dune 24 11 19/5 20.83
3 The French Dispatch 20 1 11/2 15.38
4 Don’t Look Up 17 0 7/1 12.5
5 Parallel Mothers 11 0 11/1 8.33
6 Spencer 10 0 13/1 7.14
7 Encanto 10 0 13/1 7.14
8 No Time to Die 4 0 33/1 2.94
9 The Harder They Fall 3 0 46/1 2.13
10 The Tragedy of Macbeth 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 No Time to Die (“No Time to Die”) 25 13 71/20 21.98
2 Encanto (“Dos Oruguitas”) 22 4 9/2 18.18
3 King Richard (“Be Alive”) 21 6 9/2 18.18
4 Don’t Look Up (“Just Look Up”) 20 1 11/2 15.38
5 Respect (“Here I Am Singing My Way Home”) 11 0 23/2 8
6 The Harder They Fall (“Guns Go Bang”) 8 0 16/1 5.88
7 Belfast (“Down to Joy”) 7 0 18/1 5.26
8 CODA (“Beyond the Shore”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
9 Annette (“So May We Start”) 3 0 44/1 2.22
10 Bruised (“Automatic Woman”) 2 0 68/1 1.45
11 Sing 2 (“Your Song Saved My Life”) 1 1 100/1 0.99
12 Four Good Days (“Somehow You Do”) 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Dear Evan Hansen (“The Anonymous Ones”) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Live Action Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 The Long Goodbye 22 4 39/10 20.41
2 When the Sun Sets 19 12 4/1 20
3 Tala’vision 18 2 11/2 15.38
4 Frimas 16 1 6/1 14.29
5 Censor of Dreams 15 0 7/1 12.5
6 You’re Dead Helen 7 0 16/1 5.88
7 The Criminals 3 2 33/1 2.94
8 Under the Heavens 2 0 54/1 1.82
9 Les Grandes Claques 2 0 54/1 1.82
10 The Dress 1 1 90/1 1.1
11 Distances 1 0 100/1 0.99
12 Stenofonen 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Ala Kachuu: Take and Run 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 On My Mind 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Please Hold 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Us Again 20 15 19/5 20.83
2 The Windshield Wiper 18 0 5/1 16.67
3 Step Into the River 16 1 6/1 14.29
4 Only a Child 16 1 13/2 13.33
5 Robin Robin 15 1 13/2 13.33
6 Namoo 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 The Musician 6 0 18/1 5.26
8 Affairs of the Art 3 1 35/1 2.78
9 Angakusajaujuq: The Shaman’s Apprentice 2 1 48/1 2.04
10 Flowing Home 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 Bestia 2 0 58/1 1.69
12 Boxballet 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 Mum is Pouring Rain 1 0 100/1 0.99
14 Bad Seeds 1 0 100/1 0.99
15 Souvenir Souvenir 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Short

NUM FILM NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Three Songs for Benazir 20 11 4/1 20
2 The Queen of Basketball 19 6 9/2 18.18
3 Coded: The Hidden Love of J.C. Leyendecker 17 2 11/2 15.38
4 Terror Contagion 17 0 6/1 14.29
5 When We Were Bullies 16 1 13/2 13.33
6 Audible 6 2 16/1 5.88
7 Camp Confidential: America’s Secret Nazis 5 0 22/1 4.35
8 Lead Me Home 2 0 56/1 1.75
9 Day of Rage 2 0 58/1 1.69
10 Lynching Postcards 2 0 58/1 1.69
11 The Facility 2 0 60/1 1.64
12 Takeover 1 0 100/1 0.99
13 A Broken House 1 0 100/1 0.99
  1. Which is kind of weird to say given that the Super Bowl is this coming Sunday… ↩︎

  2. Which is criminal, given that Caitriona Balfe had a much larger role and was much better in that film! ↩︎