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Oscars checklist 2018, take two: The snubs and surprises Jan 23

Now that the Oscar nominations were officially announced today, I think it’s fun to look back at the predicted nominees and see which expected films made the cut. And more interestingly, which movies got snubbed or jumped in the rankings!

Last year, I downloaded the predictions from Gold Derby in November, two months before the nominations were announced - so it wasn’t surprising that some categories were wildly off. But this time, even the best experts’ predictions a few days ago had some surprising omissions. Some movies that no one thought would get nominated made it!

Here’s the same list of predictions as before, but with actual nominees bolded or listed below…

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson).

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Kong: Skull Island.

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: Abacus: Small Enough to Jail.

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Nominated but not predicted: On Body and Soul.

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Garden Party, Revolting Rhymes.

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Nominated but not predicted: Knife Skills, Traffic Stop.

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99
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Oscars checklist 2018: the contenders Jan 21

A year ago, I made a list of every movie contending for an Oscar so I could watch as many as I could in theaters. And it worked! I watched lots of movies I might have otherwise skipped. And by Oscar night, I’d seen every nominated movie but one!1

I know the official nominees will be announced soon, but I find this stuff fascinating anyways. It’s always interesting to see how many of the actual nominees the experts predict correctly!

I again used odds data from Gold Derby’s experts to calculate “points” for each movie with a chance of earning a nomination. This time, I didn’t make the mistake of trying to actually calculate the data in Markdown tables this time. Who would’ve guessed that actual spreadsheet software would be better for doing lots of calculations? :-D

If you’re curious about the exact methodology I used, you can read my post from last year. Otherwise, let’s move on to the (hopeful) nominees!

Shortcuts

Sort by category

Here’s Gold Derby’s data for all 24 Oscar categories. I downloaded the data on 1/20 and calculated the “points” for each category using a simple implied probability conversion from fractional odds to decimal points.

Like last year, I omitted every movie with 0 experts predicting a nomination or win, so only movies that someone thinks might actually be nominated are included.

Columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s calculated odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = Implied probability, calculated correctly this year! It’s just (Denominator) / (Numerator + Denominator). For example, a title with 4/1 odds is calculated as (1) / (4 + 1) = (1 / 5) = 20%. In other words, it’s the percentage chance of a movie winning that category.

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 31 7 13/2 13.33
2. Lady Bird 31 5 13/2 13.33
3. The Shape of Water 30 6 7/1 12.50
4. Get Out 31 5 8/1 11.11
5. Dunkirk 31 3 8/1 11.11
6. The Post 31 4 8/1 11.11
7. Call Me By Your Name 30 1 10/1 9.09
8. The Florida Project 20 0 22/1 4.35
9. Darkest Hour 17 0 25/1 3.85
10. The Big Sick 19 0 28/1 3.45
11. I, Tonya 14 0 33/1 2.94
12. Mudbound 10 0 50/1 1.96
13. Phantom Thread 5 0 100/1 0.99
14. Wonder Woman 4 0 100/1 0.99
15. Molly’s Game 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water (Guillermo Del Toro) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan) 31 8 10/3 23.08
3. Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig) 30 2 5/1 16.67
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post (Steven Spielberg) 12 0 14/1 6.67
7. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino) 5 1 33/1 2.94
8. Darkest Hour (Joe Wright) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Frances McDormand) 31 23 15/8 34.78
2. Lady Bird (Saoirse Ronan) 30 5 7/2 22.22
3. The Shape of Water (Sally Hawkins) 31 3 4/1 20.00
4. The Post (Meryl Streep) 28 0 15/2 11.76
5. I, Tonya (Margot Robbie) 26 0 9/1 10.00
6. Molly’s Game (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 66/1 1.49
7. Battle of the Sexes (Emma Stone) 1 0 100/1 0.99
8. All the Money in the World (Michelle Williams) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonder Wheel (Kate Winslet) 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (Annette Bening) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour (Gary Oldman) 31 27 17/10 37.04
2. Call Me By Your Name (Timothee Chalamet) 31 4 7/2 22.22
3. Phantom Thread (Daniel Day-Lewis) 28 0 11/2 15.38
4. Get Out (Daniel Kaluuya) 25 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Disaster Artist (James Franco) 23 0 10/1 9.09
6. The Post (Tom Hanks) 13 0 18/1 5.26
7. Stronger (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Split (James McAvoy) 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Roman J. Israel, Esq. (Denzel Washington) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. I, Tonya (Allison Janney) 30 17 12/5 29.41
2. Lady Bird (Laurie Metcalf) 31 13 5/2 28.57
3. The Big Sick (Holly Hunter) 27 0 13/2 13.33
4. Mudbound (Mary J. Blige) 25 1 8/1 11.11
5. The Shape of Water (Octavia Spencer) 19 0 12/1 7.69
6. Downsizing (Hong Chau) 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Phantom Thread (Lesley Manville) 8 0 33/1 2.94
8. Girls Trip (Tiffany Haddish) 4 0 66/1 1.49
9. Darkest Hour (Kristin Scott Thomas) 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Novitiate (Melissa Leo) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Sam Rockwell) 31 20 21/10 32.26
2. The Florida Project (Willem Dafoe) 31 10 14/5 26.32
3. The Shape of Water (Richard Jenkins) 26 0 7/1 12.50
4. Call Me By Your Name (Armie Hammer) 21 0 10/1 9.09
5. Call Me By Your Name (Michael Stuhlbarg) 14 1 12/1 7.69
6. All the Money in the World (Christopher Plummer) 18 0 14/1 6.67
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Woody Harrelson) 10 0 28/1 3.45
8. Mudbound (Jason Mitchell) 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. The Big Sick (Ray Romano) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Call Me By Your Name 30 28 3/2 40.00
2. Mudbound 29 1 9/2 18.18
3. Molly’s Game 28 0 5/1 16.67
4. The Disaster Artist 28 0 11/2 15.38
5. Wonder 12 0 22/1 4.35
6. Logan 7 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Beguiled 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Victoria and Abdul 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. All the Money in the World 3 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Get Out 29 14 5/2 28.57
2. Lady Bird 29 9 3/1 25.00
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 28 6 7/2 22.22
4. The Shape of Water 25 0 8/1 11.11
5. The Big Sick 20 0 11/1 8.33
6. The Post 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Darkest Hour 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Dunkirk 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Phantom Thread 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Blade Runner 2049 29 19 19/10 34.48
2. Dunkirk 29 8 11/4 26.67
3. The Shape of Water 29 1 9/2 18.18
4. Call Me By Your Name 22 0 10/1 9.09
5. Darkest Hour 15 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound 14 0 18/1 5.26
7. Wonder Wheel 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. The Florida Project 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Get Out 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Phantom Thread 27 23 17/10 37.04
2. Beauty and the Beast 27 3 7/2 22.22
3. The Greatest Showman 24 0 13/2 13.33
4. Darkest Hour 21 0 17/2 10.53
5. The Shape of Water 17 1 9/1 10.00
6. Victoria and Abdul 8 0 28/1 3.45
7. Murder on the Orient Express 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. The Beguiled 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Wonderstruck 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Blade Runner 2049 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. The Post 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 25 8/5 38.46
2. The Shape of Water 26 1 9/2 18.18
3. Get Out 25 1 11/2 15.38
4. Blade Runner 2049 17 0 9/1 10.00
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 13 0 14/1 6.67
6. Baby Driver 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Post 6 0 40/1 2.44
8. Lady Bird 2 0 80/1 1.23
9. Darkest Hour 2 0 100/1 0.99
10. Call Me By Your Name 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. I, Tonya 2 0 100/1 0.99
12. Mother! 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Darkest Hour 26 24 10/11 52.38
2. Wonder 18 1 5/1 16.67
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 17 1 5/1 16.67
4. I, Tonya 12 0 10/1 9.09
5. Victoria and Abdul 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 27 15 9/4 30.77
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 9 3/1 25.00
3. Dunkirk 23 2 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast 17 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 12/1 7.69
6. Phantom Thread 13 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Greatest Showman 6 1 25/1 3.85
8. The Post 3 0 80/1 1.23
9. Downsizing 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. The Shape of Water 26 15 12/5 29.41
2. Dunkirk 26 10 14/5 26.32
3. Phantom Thread 24 2 5/1 16.67
4. The Post 15 0 12/1 7.69
5. Darkest Hour 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7 0 33/1 2.94
7. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7 0 33/1 2.94
8. Blade Runner 2049 5 0 40/1 2.44
9. Coco 5 0 40/1 2.44
10. Victoria and Abdul 2 0 100/1 0.99
11. Wonder Woman 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. War for the Planet of the Apes 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Song

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco (Remember Me) 26 23 7/4 36.36
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me) 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. Call Me By Your Name (The Mystery of Love) 23 1 11/2 15.38
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore) 24 0 13/2 13.33
5. Marshall (Stand Up for Something) 17 0 14/1 6.67
6. Mudbound (Mighty River) 14 0 16/1 5.88
7. The Promise (The Promise (song)) 2 0 80/1 1.23
8. Cries From Syria (Prayers for This World) 2 0 100/1 0.99
9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 27 3/2 40.00
2. Blade Runner 2049 27 0 4/1 20.00
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 21 0 7/1 12.50
4. Baby Driver 23 0 7/1 12.50
5. The Shape of Water 16 0 14/1 6.67
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 15 0 14/1 6.67
7. Wonder Woman 4 0 66/1 1.49
8. Beauty and the Beast 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Dunkirk 27 22 9/5 35.71
2. Blade Runner 2049 25 4 4/1 20.00
3. The Shape of Water 24 0 11/2 15.38
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Baby Driver 19 0 10/1 9.09
6. War for the Planet of the Apes 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. The Greatest Showman 5 0 40/1 2.44
8. Wonder Woman 3 1 40/1 2.44
9. Beauty and the Beast 4 0 66/1 1.49

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. War for the Planet of the Apes 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Blade Runner 2049 26 5 7/2 22.22
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 27 0 11/2 15.38
4. Dunkirk 26 1 13/2 13.33
5. The Shape of Water 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 0 100/1 0.99
7. Okja 2 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Coco 26 26 3/2 40.00
2. The Breadwinner 26 0 9/2 18.18
3. Loving Vincent 26 0 9/2 18.18
4. The Lego Batman Movie 23 0 15/2 11.76
5. Ferdinand 18 0 12/1 7.69
6. Mary and the Witch’s Flower 6 0 40/1 2.44
7. Captain Underpants 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Despicable Me 3 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Boss Baby 1 0 100/1 0.99
10. In This Corner of The World 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Documentary Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Jane 27 21 15/8 34.78
2. Faces Places 26 3 4/1 20.00
3. City of Ghosts 25 2 5/1 16.67
4. Last Men in Aleppo 22 0 17/2 10.53
5. Icarus 19 0 11/1 8.33
6. Strong Island 6 0 33/1 2.94
7. Human Flow 2 1 50/1 1.96
8. LA 92 2 0 66/1 1.49
9. Chasing Coral 3 0 80/1 1.23
10. Ex Libris: The New York Public Library 1 0 100/1 0.99
11. An Inconvenient Sequel 1 0 100/1 0.99
12. One of Us 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Foreign Language Film

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. A Fantastic Woman 26 14 12/5 29.41
2. The Square 25 5 7/2 22.22
3. Foxtrot 25 3 9/2 18.18
4. In the Fade 23 4 11/2 15.38
5. Loveless 23 0 8/1 11.11
6. The Insult 5 0 40/1 2.44
7. The Wound 2 0 100/1 0.99
8. Felicite 1 0 100/1 0.99

Best Animated Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. In a Heartbeat 21 14 23/10 30.30
2. Dear Basketball 22 7 3/1 25.00
3. Cradle 19 1 6/1 14.29
4. Negative Space 22 0 15/2 11.76
5. Lou 18 0 9/1 10.00
6. Lost Property Office 4 1 22/1 4.35
7. Fox and the Whale 6 0 28/1 3.45
8. Life Smartphone 3 0 80/1 1.23

Best Documentary Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. Alone 21 15 11/5 31.25
2. Heroin(e) 22 3 7/2 22.22
3. Ten Meter Tower 21 2 9/2 18.18
4. 116 Cameras 19 0 8/1 11.11
5. Edith+Eddie 18 1 17/2 10.53
6. Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405 4 1 25/1 3.85
7. Ram Dass, Going Home 3 0 50/1 1.96
8. Kayayo: The Living Shopping Baskets 2 0 80/1 1.23

Best Live Action Short

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1. DeKalb Elementary 18 15 2/1 33.33
2. The Silent Child 19 3 4/1 20.00
3. Watu Wote / All of Us 19 1 9/2 18.18
4. My Nephew Emmett 18 0 15/2 11.76
5. Rise of a Star 14 0 12/1 7.69
6. Facing Mecca 8 0 20/1 4.76
7. Witnesses 1 1 50/1 1.96
8. The Eleven O’Clock 1 0 100/1 0.99
9. Lost Face 1 0 100/1 0.99

By Movie

Here’s the list of movies sorted alphabetically. If you want to skip this, you can just skip down to the final list.

  • All the Money in the World (8.65 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actor (Christopher Plummer) (14/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actress (Michelle Williams) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Baby Driver (27.47 total points)
    • 12.50 pts (4th) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Sound Mixing (10/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Film Editing (16/1 odds)
  • Battle of the Sexes (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actress (Emma Stone) (100/1 odds)
  • Beauty and the Beast (45.73 total points)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Costume Design (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Song (Evermore) (13/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (9th) for Best Sound Mixing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Blade Runner 2049 (136.12 total points)
    • 34.48 pts (1st) for Best Cinematography (19/10 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Production Design (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Visual Effects (7/2 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Editing (4/1 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Sound Mixing (4/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (4th) for Best Film Editing (9/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • Boss Baby (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Call Me By Your Name (116.50 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Adapted Screenplay (3/2 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actor (Timothee Chalamet) (7/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Song (The Mystery of Love) (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (7th) for Best Picture (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actor (Armie Hammer) (10/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Cinematography (10/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg) (12/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Director (Luca Guadagnino) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Captain Underpants (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Coco (78.80 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Animated Feature (3/2 odds)
    • 36.36 pts (1st) for Best Song (Remember Me) (7/4 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (9th) for Best Score (40/1 odds)
  • Cries From Syria (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Song (Prayers for This World) (100/1 odds)
  • Darkest Hour (128.78 total points)
    • 52.38 pts (1st) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/11 odds)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Actor (Gary Oldman) (17/10 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Costume Design (17/2 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Production Design (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Cinematography (14/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Score (14/1 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (9th) for Best Picture (25/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Director (Joe Wright) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actress (Kristin Scott Thomas) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Despicable Me 3 (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Downsizing (4.44 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Supporting Actress (Hong Chau) (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
  • Dunkirk (231.05 total points)
    • 40.00 pts (1st) for Best Sound Editing (3/2 odds)
    • 38.46 pts (1st) for Best Film Editing (8/5 odds)
    • 35.71 pts (1st) for Best Sound Mixing (9/5 odds)
    • 26.67 pts (2nd) for Best Cinematography (11/4 odds)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Score (14/5 odds)
    • 23.08 pts (2nd) for Best Director (Christopher Nolan) (10/3 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Production Design (11/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (4th) for Best Visual Effects (13/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Ferdinand (7.69 total points)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Animated Feature (12/1 odds)
  • Fifty Shades Darker (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Song (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) (100/1 odds)
  • Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Actress (Annette Bening) (100/1 odds)
  • Get Out (77.11 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (1st) for Best Original Screenplay (5/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Film Editing (11/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Director (Jordan Peele) (17/2 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Actor (Daniel Kaluuya) (17/2 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Girls Trip (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actress (Tiffany Haddish) (66/1 odds)
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (17.66 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (6th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • I, Tonya (53.42 total points)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actress (Allison Janney) (12/5 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Actress (Margot Robbie) (9/1 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (4th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (10/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (11th) for Best Picture (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • In This Corner of The World (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Lady Bird (107.03 total points)
    • 28.57 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actress (Laurie Metcalf) (5/2 odds)
    • 25.00 pts (2nd) for Best Original Screenplay (3/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (2nd) for Best Actress (Saoirse Ronan) (7/2 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Director (Greta Gerwig) (5/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (2nd) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Film Editing (80/1 odds)
  • Logan (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
  • Loving Vincent (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • Marshall (6.67 total points)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Song (Stand Up for Something) (14/1 odds)
  • Mary and the Witch’s Flower (2.44 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (6th) for Best Animated Feature (40/1 odds)
  • Molly’s Game (19.15 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (5/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (6th) for Best Actress (Jessica Chastain) (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (15th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Mother! (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Mudbound (43.63 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (9/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Supporting Actress (Mary J. Blige) (8/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Song (Mighty River) (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Cinematography (18/1 odds)
    • 1.96 pts (12nd) for Best Picture (50/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Supporting Actor (Jason Mitchell) (80/1 odds)
  • Murder on the Orient Express (1.49 total points)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Costume Design (66/1 odds)
  • Novitiate (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Supporting Actress (Melissa Leo) (100/1 odds)
  • Okja (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • Phantom Thread (79.89 total points)
    • 37.04 pts (1st) for Best Costume Design (17/10 odds)
    • 16.67 pts (3rd) for Best Score (5/1 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis) (11/2 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Production Design (16/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actress (Lesley Manville) (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (13th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Roman J. Israel, Esq. (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actor (Denzel Washington) (100/1 odds)
  • Split (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Actor (James McAvoy) (100/1 odds)
  • Star Wars: The Last Jedi (41.35 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Visual Effects (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Editing (7/1 odds)
    • 10.53 pts (4th) for Best Sound Mixing (17/2 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (7th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
  • Stronger (0.99 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal) (100/1 odds)
  • The Beguiled (3.67 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Costume Design (80/1 odds)
  • The Big Sick (26.11 total points)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actress (Holly Hunter) (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Original Screenplay (11/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (10th) for Best Picture (28/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Supporting Actor (Ray Romano) (100/1 odds)
  • The Breadwinner (18.18 total points)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Animated Feature (9/2 odds)
  • The Disaster Artist (24.48 total points)
    • 15.38 pts (4th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (11/2 odds)
    • 9.09 pts (5th) for Best Actor (James Franco) (10/1 odds)
  • The Florida Project (31.65 total points)
    • 26.32 pts (2nd) for Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe) (14/5 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (8th) for Best Picture (22/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • The Greatest Showman (39.62 total points)
    • 20.00 pts (2nd) for Best Song (This Is Me) (4/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (3rd) for Best Costume Design (13/2 odds)
    • 3.85 pts (7th) for Best Production Design (25/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
  • The Lego Batman Movie (11.76 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Animated Feature (15/2 odds)
  • The Post (53.04 total points)
    • 11.76 pts (4th) for Best Actress (Meryl Streep) (15/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (6th) for Best Picture (8/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (4th) for Best Score (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Director (Steven Spielberg) (14/1 odds)
    • 5.88 pts (6th) for Best Original Screenplay (16/1 odds)
    • 5.26 pts (6th) for Best Actor (Tom Hanks) (18/1 odds)
    • 2.44 pts (7th) for Best Film Editing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Production Design (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • The Promise (1.23 total points)
    • 1.23 pts (7th) for Best Song (The Promise (song)) (80/1 odds)
  • The Shape of Water (235.77 total points)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Director (Guillermo Del Toro) (21/10 odds)
    • 30.77 pts (1st) for Best Production Design (9/4 odds)
    • 29.41 pts (1st) for Best Score (12/5 odds)
    • 20.00 pts (3rd) for Best Actress (Sally Hawkins) (4/1 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (3rd) for Best Cinematography (9/2 odds)
    • 18.18 pts (2nd) for Best Film Editing (9/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts (3rd) for Best Sound Mixing (11/2 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Picture (7/1 odds)
    • 12.50 pts (3rd) for Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins) (7/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (4th) for Best Original Screenplay (8/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts (5th) for Best Visual Effects (8/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts (5th) for Best Costume Design (9/1 odds)
    • 7.69 pts (5th) for Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) (12/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (124.98 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Actress (Frances McDormand) (15/8 odds)
    • 32.26 pts (1st) for Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell) (21/10 odds)
    • 22.22 pts (3rd) for Best Original Screenplay (7/2 odds)
    • 13.33 pts (1st) for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 8.33 pts (5th) for Best Director (Martin McDonagh) (11/1 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (5th) for Best Film Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 3.45 pts (7th) for Best Supporting Actor (Woody Harrelson) (28/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Score (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (8th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Victoria and Abdul (6.66 total points)
    • 3.45 pts (6th) for Best Costume Design (28/1 odds)
    • 1.23 pts (8th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (80/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (5th) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • War for the Planet of the Apes (46.37 total points)
    • 34.78 pts (1st) for Best Visual Effects (15/8 odds)
    • 6.67 pts (6th) for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 2.94 pts (6th) for Best Sound Mixing (33/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder (21.01 total points)
    • 16.67 pts (2nd) for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/1 odds)
    • 4.35 pts (5th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (22/1 odds)
  • Wonder Wheel (1.98 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Actress (Kate Winslet) (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (7th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Wonder Woman (8.88 total points)
    • 2.44 pts (8th) for Best Sound Mixing (40/1 odds)
    • 1.49 pts (7th) for Best Sound Editing (66/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (14th) for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (12nd) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (10th) for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Wonderstruck (2.97 total points)
    • 0.99 pts (11th) for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
    • 0.99 pts (9th) for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)

Final List

And now, the final list! Interestingly enough, some of the movies with the most aggregate points are not strong contenders for Best Picture this year. So much like Jackie last year, they are “punching above their weight” due to strong contention for technical awards.

Notably, this is a list of English feature-length films (i.e. movies generally available in US theaters). So it does not include documentaries, foreign films, or any of the short films.

Num Points Movie Categories (Pts/Cat)
1. 235.77 pts The Shape of Water 14 (16.84)
2. 231.05 pts Dunkirk 10 (23.11)
3. 136.12 pts Blade Runner 2049 9 (15.12)
4. 128.78 pts Darkest Hour 11 (11.71)
5. 124.98 pts Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9 (13.89)
6. 116.50 pts Call Me By Your Name 9 (12.94)
7. 107.03 pts Lady Bird 6 (17.84)
8. 79.89 pts Phantom Thread 7 (11.41)
9. 78.80 pts Coco 3 (26.27)
10. 77.11 pts Get Out 6 (12.85)
11. 53.42 pts I, Tonya 6 (8.90)
12. 53.04 pts The Post 9 (5.89)
13. 46.37 pts War for the Planet of the Apes 5 (9.27)
14. 45.73 pts Beauty and the Beast 5 (9.15)
15. 43.63 pts Mudbound 6 (7.27)
16. 41.35 pts Star Wars: The Last Jedi 4 (10.34)
17. 39.62 pts The Greatest Showman 4 (9.90)
18. 31.65 pts The Florida Project 3 (10.55)
19. 27.47 pts Baby Driver 3 (9.16)
20. 26.11 pts The Big Sick 4 (6.53)
21. 24.48 pts The Disaster Artist 2 (12.24)
22. 21.01 pts Wonder 2 (10.51)
23. 19.15 pts Molly’s Game 3 (6.38)
24. 18.18 pts The Breadwinner 1 (18.18)
25. 18.18 pts Loving Vincent 1 (18.18)
26. 17.66 pts Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 2 (8.83)
27. 11.76 pts The Lego Batman Movie 1 (11.76)
28. 8.88 pts Wonder Woman 7 (1.27)
29. 8.65 pts All the Money in the World 3 (2.88)
30. 7.69 pts Ferdinand 1 (7.69)
31. 6.67 pts Marshall 1 (6.67)
32. 6.66 pts Victoria and Abdul 4 (1.67)
33. 4.44 pts Downsizing 2 (2.22)
34. 3.67 pts The Beguiled 2 (1.84)
35. 2.97 pts Wonderstruck 3 (0.99)
36. 2.44 pts Logan 1 (2.44)
37. 2.44 pts Mary and the Witch’s Flower 1 (2.44)
38. 1.98 pts Wonder Wheel 2 (0.99)
39. 1.49 pts Murder on the Orient Express 1 (1.49)
40. 1.49 pts Girls Trip 1 (1.49)
41. 1.23 pts The Promise 1 (1.23)
42. 0.99 pts Battle of the Sexes 1 (0.99)
43. 0.99 pts Mother! 1 (0.99)
44. 0.99 pts Roman J. Israel, Esq. 1 (0.99)
45. 0.99 pts Okja 1 (0.99)
46. 0.99 pts Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 1 (0.99)
47. 0.99 pts Stronger 1 (0.99)
48. 0.99 pts Novitiate 1 (0.99)
49. 0.99 pts Captain Underpants 1 (0.99)
50. 0.99 pts Despicable Me 3 1 (0.99)
51. 0.99 pts Split 1 (0.99)
52. 0.99 pts Cries From Syria 1 (0.99)
53. 0.99 pts Fifty Shades Darker 1 (0.99)
54. 0.99 pts Boss Baby 1 (0.99)
55. 0.99 pts In This Corner of The World 1 (0.99)

  1. The only movie I missed: the 8-hour OJ Simpson documentary. But you better believe I’m going to complete the Oscars Death Race this year! ↩︎

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What I want in iOS 11: Wish list & grievances Jun 05

This year is different. For the first time in all the years I’ve been making these wish lists, I don’t feel compelled to note many new features that I want in iOS.

Instead, I have grievances. It feels like Apple has taken its eye off the ball and is falling further and further behind its competitors. Google’s machine learning has rapidly evolved and is becoming a serious competitive advantage. Amazon is killing it with its Echo speakers and voice recognition in general. And Microsoft – Microsoft! – is becoming a paragon of software and hardware design.

Why has thou strayed so, Apple?

In fact, about 6 months ago, I bought my first Android device. It’s a budget 6” behemoth, it’s kinda slow, and the default fonts are weird – but I still really like it (if nothing else, it’s convinced me that my next phone is going to have the biggest screen possible!).

The only reason I could even think about doing that is because I’ve been straying further and further from Apple’s native apps. (Don’t get me started on all the bugs the Photos app has given me!) It turns out Google’s apps are really, really good. I’ll have more to write about that soon, but suffice it to say that Apple really needs to knock it out of the park at WWDC this year for folks like me to even think about trusting Apple’s apps and services again.

Now, with all that said, let’s move on to what I’m hoping to see in iOS 11 this year…

Picture-in-Picture on iPhone

It was my first wish list item last year, and it’s my first wish list item again this year. If you’re going to abandon the iPad Mini (*weeps*), then at least let us watch videos while multitasking on our large-screen iPhones.

iPads have PIP. The newly-unveiled Android O has PIP. Time to add it to phones too, Apple!

Reset native apps

One feature I’ve really grown to like in using Google’s iPhone apps is that if anything goes wrong – bug in my data, aggressive caching by mistake, etc – I can just delete the app, install it again, and it’ll download my data from the cloud.

Compare to Apple’s native apps. I pay for 200GB of iCloud storage so I can use iCloud Photo Library. But it was taking up too much space on my 16GB iPad, so I turned off the feature a while back. But today, even though my iPad has 0 photos on it, the Photos app is still using 1.8GB of my 12GB of usable space. I’ve tried EVERYTHING short of resetting the device to free up that space. Nothing works. When Google Photos started taking up too much space on my phone, I just deleted the app for a couple weeks. When I reinstalled it a few weeks later, I was right back to where I was.

It would be SO nice if I could “refresh” all of the app data for Apple’s native apps without resetting my entire device. They started letting you delete 1st-party apps with iOS 10, I’m hoping they go a step further with iOS 11 and make the native apps truly modular.

Cross-platform app purchases

I can buy an iOS app from iTunes on a computer. But why can’t I buy a MacOS app from the App Store on an iOS device? Heck, why can’t I even view the Mac App Store listing for any app from an iOS device? (It was only once I dipped my toe into the Android ecosystem that I realized just how backwards a lot of Apple services are.)

iPad: Don’t let incoming calls take over screen when playing live video!

Seriously, this is insane. I was watching the NBA finals tonight and someone called me. Because of Apple’s Continuity features, it also rang on my iPad. Except, just like how an incoming call on an iPhone takes over the whole screen, it also took over my iPad screen, interrupting my live stream of the game. I use my iPad as a portable TV of sorts, especially for watching sports, and it is maddening if I forget to turn on Do Not Disturb on my iPad. WHY, Apple, WHY?

Incoming calls shouldn’t take over the entire screen on your phone, and they certainly shouldn’t take over your whole iPad screen. ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU’RE STREAMING A LIVE VIDEO.

Record voice and FaceTime calls

I’m not a podcaster, but I’ve read plenty about how frustrating it is for them to have to juggle using Skype just to have the ability to record a conversation. But the fact of the matter is that it would be great for everyone if we could record calls, especially FaceTime calls.

Video calls with family and friends are more than calls - they’re often memories. I use FaceTime to have meaningful conversations with distant relatives and I often wish I could do more than take a low-resolution screenshot to remember the moment.

In fact, my Mom has a 10+ minute video she recorded using the camera on her phone…of my sister FaceTiming us from another country while on vacation. Seriously, my mom used her phone’s camera just to record everything my sister was showing us on my phone, all because Apple can’t be bothered to add proper screen recording.

PS. How about group calling, while you’re at it?

3rd-party keyboards working properly

I tried a bunch of 3rd-party keyboards when they debuted in iOS 8, but I never stuck with any of them. Mostly because I thought they weren’t programmed well and would crash often, defaulting back the native keyboard. Well, 3 years later, and I’m still seeing the same crashes. So maybe it wasn’t the apps…

Lately, I’ve beeen using GBoard, which has an excellent swipe keyboard and integrated GIF features. It crashes a lot less than any other 3rd-party keyboard I’ve used (I’m looking at you, SwiftKey!), but still too much to be entirely comfortable with it.

Just fix it, Apple. FIX IT.

Open in 3rd-party apps properly

Why, when I come across a Twitter link in another app, do I have to long-press on the link and click on ‘Open in Safari’ to get it to open in the Twitter app? It’s the same for YouTube videos too.

In fact, it’s downright aggravating trying to get links to open properly in native apps. It’s great that apps can tell the operating system to open links in their app natively, not in the browser. But as a user, I want the CHOICE. Sometimes I just want to quickly preview a tweet in the browser, without opening the Twitter app and losing my place in the timeline from a few minutes ago. Or sometimes I was already watching a YouTube video, switched to another app for a moment and clicked on a link, and now I’ve lost the original video I was watching.

At a minimum, fix the ‘Open in Safari’ button to properly reflect the app that is going to open instead. Seriously, this is amateur hour, Apple.

Improved default video player

It boggles my mind that after 10 years, the default video player is little-changed…and STILL doesn’t have a ‘skip back 10 seconds’ button! Seriously, this is table stakes for any 3rd-party app that plays videos.

Netflix has a button in the bottom left. Amazon’s video app lets you swipe left anywhere on the screen. But I think I like YouTube’s implementation most of all, just a simple double-tap on the left side of the screen.

Pick one. Any one. Just add this to the video player, Apple. And while you’re at it, how about fixing that awful volume changing HUD you implemented in iOS 7?

macOS and tvOS updates

These still exist, right? Has someone told Apple?

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Oscars checklist, take 3: a list of all 62 movies actually nominated, grouped by highest category Feb 04

The Oscar nominees were announced last week and…my checklist actually worked! I was able to watch almost every major movie nominated while still in theaters, which was my main goal. And even the couple I missed, I was able to watch at home before the nominations were announced.1

Now, I’m going to try to see just how many of the foreign films and documentaries and short films I can watch before the awards ceremony. If it helps anyone else, I made a list of all the movies and grouped them by their highest-nominated category.

(I was also curious about how closely the experts’ predictions matched up with the actual nominees, so I’ve compared them in the last section below!)

“Major” categories

9 movies nominated in Best Picture (with 59 total nominations between them!):

  • [14] La La Land
  • [8] Arrival
  • [8] Moonlight
  • [6] Hacksaw Ridge
  • [6] Lion
  • [6] Manchester by the Sea
  • [4] Fences
  • [4] Hell or High Water
  • [3] Hidden Figures

6 more movies nominated in Best Actor/Actress:

  • [3] Jackie (Best Actress / Natalie Portman)
  • [2] Florence Foster Jenkins (Best Actress / Meryl Streep)
  • [1] Captain Fantastic (Best Actor / Viggo Mortensen)
  • [1] Elle (Best Actress / Isabelle Huppert)
  • [1] Loving (Best Actress / Ruth Negga)
  • [1] Nocturnal Animals (Best Supporting Actor / Michael Shannon)

2 more movies nominated in Best Original Screenplay:

  • [1] 20th Century Women
  • [1] The Lobster

1 more movie nominated in Best Cinematography:

  • [1] Silence

“Minor” categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Film:

  • [2] Kubo and the Two Strings
  • [2] Moana
  • [1] My Life As a Zucchini
  • [1] The Red Turtle
  • [1] Zootopia

5 more movies nominated in Best Foreign Film:

  • [2] A Man Called Ove
  • [1] Land of Mine
  • [1] Tanna
  • [1] The Salesman
  • [1] Toni Erdmann

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary:

  • [1] 13th
  • [1] Fire at Sea
  • [1] I Am Not Your Negro
  • [1] Life Animated
  • [1] O.J.: Made in America

Technical categories

14 more movies nominated in technical categories (Best Score / Song / Sound Editing / Sound Mixing / Production Design / Makeup & Hairstyling / Costume Design / Film Editing / Visual Effects):

  • [2] Deepwater Horizon
  • [2] Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
  • [2] Passengers
  • [2] Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
  • [1] 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
  • [1] Allied
  • [1] Doctor Strange
  • [1] Hail, Caesar!
  • [1] Jim: The James Foley Story
  • [1] Star Trek Beyond
  • [1] Suicide Squad
  • [1] Sully
  • [1] The Jungle Book
  • [1] Trolls

Short film categories

5 more movies nominated in Best Live Action Short Film:

  • [1] Ennemis Interieurs (28m)
  • [1] La Femme et le TGV (30m)
  • [1] Silent Nights (30m)
  • [1] Sing (25m)
  • [1] Timecode (15m)

5 more movies nominated in Best Animated Short Film:

  • [1] Blind Vaysha (8m)
  • [1] Borrowed Time (7m)
  • [1] Pear Cider and Cigarettes (35m)
  • [1] Pearl (6m)
  • [1] Piper (6m)

5 more movies nominated in Best Documentary - Short Subject:

  • [1] 4.1 Miles (26m)
  • [1] Extremis (24m)
  • [1] Joe’s Violin (24m)
  • [1] The White Helmets (41m)
  • [1] Watani: My Homeland (39m)

By the numbers

There are 24 Oscar categories, with 5 nominees in almost every category (Best Picture has 9 nominees, Makeup & Hairstyling has 3 nominees). That means 122 total nominations. Altogether, there are 47 feature-length films and 15 short films nominated.

Of the 47 feature-length films, if you group them by their highest-nominated category, you’re looking at…

  • 18 “major” category nominees
  • 15 “minor” category nominees
  • 14 technical category nominees
  • 15 short category nominees

So if you want to watch…

  • All the Best Picture nominees: 9 movies.
  • All the BP + major nominees: 18 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor nominees: 33 movies.
  • All the BP + major + minor + technical nominees (AKA no shorts): 47 movies.

And if you wanted to watch everything…62 movies! Folks like Joe Reid and Todd VanDerWerff try to do this.

How accurate were the experts?

While I was making this list, I started comparing it to the experts’ predictions I compiled in my last 2 posts. How many categories did they get exactly right? (Just one!) Did they miss any nominations entirely? (Yes!) Did they miss every nomination in any category entirely? (Yep!)

Anyways, I thought it was just kinda fun to look back at the predictions, so I’ve copied the original lists by category below and bolded the actual nominees. Remember, these predictions are from late November, before some of the movies were even released.

(Quick reminder about the columns: NOM is how many experts thought that movie would be nominated, WIN is how many experts thought it would win the category, ODDS are Gold Derby’s odds, and PTS is a simple inversion of the odds.)

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 26 22 9/2 22.22
2 Manchester by the Sea 26 4 13/2 15.38
3 Moonlight 26 0 9/1 11.11
4 Fences 25 0 9/1 11.11
5 Loving 22 1 12/1 8.33
6 Silence 21 0 14/1 7.14
7 Lion 20 0 14/1 7.14
8 Jackie 18 0 16/1 6.25
9 Arrival 15 0 20/1 5.00
10 Sully 14 0 28/1 3.57
11 Hidden Figures 10 0 33/1 3.03
12 Hell or High Water 6 0 50/1 2.00
13 Hacksaw Ridge 7 0 66/1 1.52
14 A Monster Calls 2 0 100/1 1.00
15 Nocturnal Animals 4 0 100/1 1.00
16 Patriot’s Day 1 0 100/1 1.00
17 The Birth of a Nation 4 0 100/1 1.00
18 20th Century Women 1 0 100/1 1.00
19 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 2 0 100/1 1.00
20 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Damien Chazelle) 26 22 17/10 58.82
2 Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan) 26 4 4/1 25.00
3 Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) 23 0 6/1 16.67
4 Silence (Martin Scorsese) 14 0 12/1 8.33
5 Fences (Denzel Washington) 14 1 12/1 8.33
6 Jackie (Pablo Larrain) 7 0 33/1 3.03
7 Loving (Jeff Nichols) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Arrival (Denis Villeneuve) 4 0 66/1 1.52
9 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee) 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Lion (Garth Davis) 2 0 80/1 1.25
11 Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Passengers (Morten Tyldum) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Sully (Clint Eastwood) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson) 1 0 100/1 1.00
36 Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck) 26 17 2/1 50.00
2 Fences (Denzel Washington) 24 10 14/5 35.71
3 La La Land (Ryan Gosling) 22 0 13/2 15.38
4 Loving (Joel Edgerton) 17 0 9/1 11.11
5 Sully (Tom Hanks) 14 0 14/1 7.14
6 Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen) 5 0 40/1 2.50
7 Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield) 6 0 40/1 2.50
8 The Founder (Michael Keaton) 3 0 66/1 1.52
9 Silence (Andrew Garfield) 3 0 80/1 1.25
10 Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty) 2 0 100/1 1.00
11 Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker) 2 0 100/1 1.00
13 Gold (Matthew McConaughey) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Emma Stone) 26 17 21/10 47.62
2 Jackie (Natalie Portman) 25 6 7/2 28.57
3 Loving (Ruth Negga) 23 2 6/1 16.67
4 20th Century Women (Annette Bening) 20 1 7/1 14.29
5 Arrival (Amy Adams) 15 0 14/1 7.14
6 Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson) 4 1 25/1 4.00
7 Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep) 4 0 50/1 2.00
9 Elle (Isabelle Huppert) 4 0 66/1 1.52
10 Fences (Viola Davis) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Moonlight (Mahershala Ali) 24 13 12/5 41.67
2 Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges) 22 4 9/2 22.22
3 Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges) 18 2 13/2 15.38
4 Lion (Dev Patel) 14 3 9/1 11.11
5 Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon) 14 3 9/1 11.11
6 Silence (Liam Neeson) 10 2 12/1 8.33
7 Fences (Stephen Henderson) 5 0 50/1 2.00
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant) 6 0 50/1 2.00
9 Fences (Jovan Adepo) 4 0 50/1 2.00
10 Denial (Timothy Spall) 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Hell or High Water (Ben Foster) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner) 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler) 1 0 100/1 1.00
25 Fences (Mykelti Williamson) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences (Viola Davis) 25 19 2/1 50.00
2 Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams) 23 8 10/3 30.00
3 Moonlight (Naomie Harris) 24 0 5/1 20.00
4 Lion (Nicole Kidman) 20 0 9/1 11.11
5 20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig) 10 0 20/1 5.00
6 Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae) 8 0 22/1 4.55
7 A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones) 7 0 33/1 3.03
8 The Hollars (Margo Martindale) 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King) 3 0 100/1 1.00
10 20th Century Women (Elle Fanning) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong’o) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 The Founder (Laura Dern) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00
23 Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea 24 18 2/1 50.00
2 Moonlight 23 5 7/2 28.57
3 La La Land 23 2 9/2 22.22
4 Loving 13 1 11/1 9.09
5 Jackie 15 0 12/1 8.33
6 Hell or High Water 8 0 20/1 5.00
7 20th Century Women 10 0 20/1 5.00
8 Captain Fantastic 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
22 The Lobster 1 0 100/1 1.00

NOTE: Moonlight got switched into Best Adapted Screenplay, but it was indeed nominated, so I’ve bolded it here anyways.

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences 21 19 19/10 52.63
2 Arrival 21 2 5/1 20.00
3 Silence 20 2 11/2 18.18
4 Lion 17 1 15/2 13.33
5 Nocturnal Animals 12 1 12/1 8.33
6 Hidden Figures 11 0 16/1 6.25
7 A Monster Calls 6 1 25/1 4.00
8 Hacksaw Ridge 2 0 66/1 1.52
9 Love and Friendship 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Elle 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Finding Dory 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Snowden 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 18 14 19/10 52.63
2 Silence 15 2 6/1 16.67
3 Arrival 13 2 6/1 16.67
4 Jackie 13 0 9/1 11.11
5 Moonlight 12 0 9/1 11.11
6 Live By Night 4 0 28/1 3.57
7 Nocturnal Animals 2 1 33/1 3.03
8 Lion 3 0 50/1 2.00
9 The Jungle Book 3 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hail, Caesar! 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 A Monster Calls 2 0 80/1 1.25
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Cafe Society 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Zootopia 21 16 15/8 53.33
2 Kubo and the Two Strings 18 2 5/1 20.00
3 Moana 15 2 13/2 15.38
4 Finding Dory 14 0 8/1 12.50
5 The Red Turtle 13 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sing 9 1 14/1 7.14
7 Sausage Party 6 0 28/1 3.57
8 The Little Prince 4 0 40/1 2.50
9 Trolls 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 My Life as a Zucchini 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Miss Hokusai 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Doctor Strange 8 4 3/1 33.33
2 The Jungle Book 6 5 10/3 30.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 1 11/2 18.18
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 0 9/1 11.11
5 Arrival 4 1 10/1 10.00
6 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 5 0 20/1 5.00
7 Captain America: Civil War 3 0 25/1 4.00
8 Sully 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 66/1 1.52
10 The BFG 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 A Monster Calls 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Warcraft 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Deadpool 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Deepwater Horizon, Kubo and the Two Strings.

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 10 2/1 50.00
2 Silence 9 1 11/2 18.18
3 Jackie 9 1 13/2 15.38
4 Hacksaw Ridge 8 0 10/1 10.00
5 Moonlight 6 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sully 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 The Jungle Book 2 1 28/1 3.57
8 Hidden Figures 2 0 28/1 3.57
9 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 28/1 3.57
10 Arrival 3 0 33/1 3.03
11 Deepwater Horizon 2 0 66/1 1.52
12 Lion 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Manchester by the Sea 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Hell or High Water.

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 11 9/5 55.56
2 Jackie 10 2 4/1 25.00
3 Silence 9 1 7/1 14.29
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 6 0 14/1 7.14
5 Arrival 3 0 14/1 7.14
6 Lion 4 0 22/1 4.55
7 The Jungle Book 5 0 25/1 4.00
8 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Hidden Figures 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Moonlight 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 66/1 1.52
12 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
13 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Passengers.

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Hacksaw Ridge 9 9 7/4 57.14
2 La La Land 8 2 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 0 13/2 15.38
4 Deepwater Horizon 6 0 12/1 8.33
5 Silence 4 0 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 4 0 14/1 7.14
7 Arrival 2 0 25/1 4.00
8 Live By Night 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00
10 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 9 11 3/2 66.67
2 Hacksaw Ridge 9 0 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8 0 11/2 18.18
4 Silence 5 0 10/1 10.00
5 The Jungle Book 4 0 16/1 6.25
6 Deepwater Horizon 4 0 25/1 4.00
7 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 2 0 50/1 2.00
8 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
9 Arrival 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi.

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 11 11 19/10 52.63
2 Jackie 11 0 6/1 16.67
3 Silence 9 0 13/2 15.38
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9 1 15/2 13.33
5 Rules Don’t Apply 5 1 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 3 1 22/1 4.55
7 Live By Night 2 0 22/1 4.55
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 0 28/1 3.57
9 Hidden Figures 3 0 33/1 3.03
10 Hail, Caesar! 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
12 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Nominated, but not in this list: Arrival, Passengers.

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 5 11/4 36.36
2 La La Land 10 6 14/5 35.71
3 Silence 7 1 6/1 16.67
4 Florence Foster Jenkins 7 1 8/1 12.50
5 Live By Night 3 0 16/1 6.25
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5 0 18/1 5.56
7 Allied 4 0 28/1 3.57
8 Rules Don’t Apply 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Captain Fantastic 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Love and Friendship 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hidden Figures 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 10 5/4 80.00
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 1 7/1 14.29
3 Silence 5 0 9/1 11.11
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 1 11/1 9.09
5 Florence Foster Jenkins 3 1 11/1 9.09
6 Doctor Strange 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 Deadpool 2 0 28/1 3.57
8 Loving 2 0 33/1 3.03
9 A Monster Calls 1 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 50/1 2.00
11 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 1 0 50/1 2.00

Nominated, but not in this list: A Man Called Ove, Suicide Squad, Star Trek Beyond. (That’s right, the experts missed all 3 nominees entirely!)

  1. Of the 37 feature length films nominated (AKA everything but the docs/shorts/foreign categories), I’ve managed to watch all but 4: The Red Turtle (foreign animated movie which was just released in theaters this week, after nominations were announced), My Life As a Zucchini (foreign animated movie that is still not out in theaters or on home video, as far as I can find), Hail Caesar! (a February movie nominated for Best Production Design), and Jim: The James Foley Story (a documentary with one nomination for Best Song). ↩︎

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Oscars checklist, take two: ratings, trailers, and more for every movie Dec 19

In my last post, I made a list of the movies most likely to be nominated for Oscars, assigning them points based on Gold Derby’s odds in each category. But I didn’t know much about many of the films themselves, other than their title. So I went through and compiled Rotten Tomatoes & Metacritic scores, trailers, ratings, runtimes, actors, and more. Hope this helps some of you too!

(You can click on the movie names in the table below to jump down to more info about each one.)

Num Points Title RT MC Genre Rating
1. 504.46pts La La Land 95% 92 Comedy PG-13
2. 230.70pts Jackie 88% 80 Biography R
3. 194.60pts Manchester by the Sea 97% 96 Drama R
4. 165.78pts Fences 92% 77 Drama PG-13
5. 152.67pts Silence 96% 83 Drama R
6. 139.74pts Moonlight 98% 99 Drama R
7. 103.18pts Hacksaw Ridge 87% 71 Drama R
8. 75.50pts Arrival 94% 81 Drama PG-13
9. 71.54pts Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 84% 65 Action PG-13
10. 57.51pts The Jungle Book 94% 77 Adventure PG
11. 55.33pts Zootopia 98% 78 Animation PG
12. 51.49pts Lion 83% 66 Drama PG-13
13. 50.73pts Loving 89% 79 Biography PG-13
14. 49.29pts Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 75% 66 Adventure PG-13
15. 39.33pts Doctor Strange 90% 72 Action PG-13
16. 34.07pts Nocturnal Animals 72% 67 Drama R
17. 30.43pts Hidden Figures 95% 66 Drama PG
18. 28.11pts Florence Foster Jenkins 87% 71 Biography PG-13
19. 26.29pts 20th Century Women 91% 77 Comedy R
20. 23.38pts Hell or High Water 98% 88 Crime R
21. 20.71pts Sully 86% 74 Biography PG-13
22. 20.00pts Kubo and the Two Strings 97% 84 Animation PG
23. 18.37pts Live By Night TBD n/a Crime R
24. 15.38pts Moana 95% 81 Animation PG
25. 13.85pts Deepwater Horizon 84% 68 Action PG-13
26. 13.50pts Finding Dory 94% 77 Animation PG
27. 12.28pts A Monster Calls 85% 77 Drama PG-13
28. 11.17pts Rules Don’t Apply 56% 59 Comedy PG-13
29. 9.09pts The Red Turtle (La tortue rouge) 90% 92 Animation PG
30. 7.14pts Sing 70% 57 Animation PG
31. 7.00pts Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 63% 57 Adventure PG-13
32. 5.50pts Captain Fantastic 82% 72 Comedy R
33. 5.00pts Passengers 31% 40 Adventure PG-13
34. 4.57pts Deadpool 84% 65 Action R
35. 4.25pts Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 45% 53 Drama R
36. 4.00pts Captain America: Civil War 90% 75 Action PG-13
37. 3.57pts Sausage Party 83% 66 Animation R
38. 3.57pts Allied 60% 60 Action R
39. 3.04pts Hail, Caesar! 85% 72 Comedy PG-13
40. 3.00pts The Birth of a Nation 72% 68 Biography R
41. 2.77pts Love & Friendship 98% 87 Comedy PG
42. 2.52pts The Founder 78% 64 Biography PG-13
43. 2.52pts Star Trek Beyond 84% 68 Action PG-13
44. 2.52pts Elle 89% 89 Drama R
45. 2.50pts The Little Prince 93% 69 Animation PG
46. 2.50pts Miss Sloane 69% 64 Drama R
47. 1.52pts Denial 81% 64 Biography PG-13
48. 1.25pts Trolls 76% 56 Animation PG
49. 1.00pts Warcraft 28% 32 Action PG-13
50. 1.00pts The Lobster 90% 82 Comedy R
51. 1.00pts The Hollars 43% 53 Comedy PG-13
52. 1.00pts The BFG 75% 66 Adventure PG
53. 1.00pts Snowden 62% 58 Biography R
54. 1.00pts Queen of Katwe 92% 73 Biography PG
55. 1.00pts Patriots Day 93% 72 Drama TBD
56. 1.00pts My Life as a Zucchini (Ma vie de Courgette) 100% 85 Animation TBD
57. 1.00pts Miss Hokusai (Sarusuberi: Miss Hokusai) 93% 74 Animation PG-13
58. 1.00pts Gold TBD n/a Adventure R
59. 1.00pts Café Society 70% 64 Comedy PG-13
60. 1.00pts Bleed for This 70% 62 Biography R

(Note: I updated all movies to the latest Rotten Tomatoes/Metacritic scores, so they are slightly different from my previous post.)

Legend

  • ● = No longer playing in theaters.
  • ● = Currently in theaters.
  • ● = Not yet released in theaters.

Most of the information in the tables below is from IMDB.1 I’ve updated the release dates to when the movie goes out in wide release, if I knew it (this is surprisingly hard-to-find data!).2 The plot synopses for each movie are from IMDB, because I noticed their synopses don’t spoil major details revealed an hour into movies (why do other sites do this? It’s maddening!). And finally, the critics consensuses are from Rotten Tomatoes and do a pretty good job of whetting your appetite without spoiling the films either.

1. La La Land (504.46pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 95%
METASCORE 92/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 08min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-16 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Musical
WRITTEN BY Damien Chazelle
DIRECTED BY Damien Chazelle
STARRING Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, Rosemarie DeWitt
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A jazz pianist falls for an aspiring actress in Los Angeles.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: La La Land breathes new life into a bygone genre with thrillingly assured direction, powerful performances, and an irresistible excess of heart.

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2. Jackie (230.70pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 88%
METASCORE 80/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 39min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-02 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama
WRITTEN BY Noah Oppenheim
DIRECTED BY Pablo Larraín
STARRING Natalie Portman, Peter Sarsgaard, Greta Gerwig
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Following the assassination of President John F. Kennedy, First Lady Jacqueline Kennedy fights through grief and trauma to regain her faith, console her children, and define her husband’s historic legacy.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Jackie offers an alluring peek into a beloved American public figure’s private world – and an enthralling starring performance from Natalie Portman in the bargain.

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3. Manchester by the Sea (194.60pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 97%
METASCORE 96/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 17min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-18 ●
GENRE Drama
WRITTEN BY Kenneth Lonergan
DIRECTED BY Kenneth Lonergan
STARRING Casey Affleck, Michelle Williams, Kyle Chandler
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An uncle is forced to take care of his teenage nephew after the boy’s father dies.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Manchester by the Sea delivers affecting drama populated by full-bodied characters, marking another strong step forward for writer-director Kenneth Lonergan.

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4. Fences (165.78pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 92%
METASCORE 77/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 18min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-25 ●
GENRE Drama
WRITTEN BY August Wilson (screenplay), August Wilson (play)
DIRECTED BY Denzel Washington
STARRING Denzel Washington, Viola Davis, Mykelti Williamson
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An African-American father struggles with race relations in the United States while trying to raise his family in the 1950s and coming to terms with the events of his life.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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5. Silence (152.67pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 96%
METASCORE 83/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 39min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-23 ●
GENRE Drama / History
WRITTEN BY Jay Cocks (screenplay), Martin Scorsese (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Martin Scorsese
STARRING Adam Driver, Andrew Garfield, Liam Neeson
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In the seventeenth century, two Jesuit priests face violence and persecution when they travel to Japan to locate their mentor and propagate Christianity.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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6. Moonlight (139.74pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 98%
METASCORE 99/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 51min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-18 ●
GENRE Drama
WRITTEN BY Barry Jenkins (screenplay), Tarell Alvin McCraney (story by)
DIRECTED BY Barry Jenkins
STARRING Mahershala Ali, Shariff Earp, Duan Sanderson
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A timeless story of human connection and self-discovery, Moonlight chronicles the life of a young black man from childhood to adulthood as he struggles to find his place in the world while growing up in a rough neighborhood of Miami.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Moonlight uses one man’s story to offer a remarkable and brilliantly crafted look at lives too rarely seen in cinema.

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7. Hacksaw Ridge (103.18pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 87%
METASCORE 71/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 19min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-04 ●
GENRE Drama / History / War
WRITTEN BY Robert Schenkkan (screenplay), Andrew Knight (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Mel Gibson
STARRING Andrew Garfield, Sam Worthington, Luke Bracey
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: WWII American Army Medic Desmond T. Doss, who served during the Battle of Okinawa, refuses to kill people, and becomes the first man in American history to receive the Medal of Honor without firing a shot.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Hacksaw Ridge uses a real-life pacifist’s legacy to lay the groundwork for a gripping wartime tribute to faith, valor, and the courage of remaining true to one’s convictions.

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8. Arrival (75.50pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 94%
METASCORE 81/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 56min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-11 ●
GENRE Drama / Mystery / Sci-Fi
WRITTEN BY Eric Heisserer (screenplay), Ted Chiang (based on the story “Story of Your Life” written by)
DIRECTED BY Denis Villeneuve
STARRING Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A linguist is recruited by the military to assist in translating alien communications.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Arrival delivers a must-see experience for fans of thinking person’s sci-fi that anchors its heady themes with genuinely affecting emotion and a terrific performance from Amy Adams.

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9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (71.54pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 84%
METASCORE 65/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 13min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-16 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Sci-Fi
WRITTEN BY Chris Weitz (screenplay), Tony Gilroy (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Gareth Edwards
STARRING Felicity Jones, Mads Mikkelsen, Alan Tudyk
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The Rebellion makes a risky move to steal the plans to the Death Star, setting up the epic saga to follow.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Rogue One draws deep on Star Wars mythology while breaking new narrative and aesthetic ground – and suggesting a bright blockbuster future for the franchise.

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10. The Jungle Book (57.51pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 94%
METASCORE 77/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 46min
RELEASE DATE 2016-04-15 ●
GENRE Adventure / Drama / Family
WRITTEN BY Justin Marks (screenplay), Rudyard Kipling (based on the books by)
DIRECTED BY Jon Favreau
STARRING Neel Sethi, Bill Murray, Ben Kingsley
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: After a threat from the tiger Shere Khan forces him to flee the jungle, a man-cub named Mowgli embarks on a journey of self discovery with the help of panther, Bagheera, and free spirited bear, Baloo.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As lovely to behold as it is engrossing to watch, The Jungle Book is the rare remake that actually improves upon its predecessors – all while setting a new standard for CGI.

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11. Zootopia (55.33pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 98%
METASCORE 78/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 48min
RELEASE DATE 2016-03-04 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Byron Howard (story by), Rich Moore (story by)
DIRECTED BY Byron Howard, Rich Moore
STARRING Ginnifer Goodwin, Jason Bateman, Idris Elba
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In a city of anthropomorphic animals, a rookie bunny cop and a cynical con artist fox must work together to uncover a conspiracy.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: The brilliantly well-rounded Zootopia offers a thoughtful, inclusive message that’s as rich and timely as its sumptuously state-of-the-art animation – all while remaining fast and funny enough to keep younger viewers entertained.

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12. Lion (51.49pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 83%
METASCORE 66/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 58min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-25 ●
GENRE Drama
WRITTEN BY Saroo Brierley (adapted from the book “A Long Way Home” by), Luke Davies (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Garth Davis
STARRING Dev Patel, Nicole Kidman, Rooney Mara
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A five-year-old Indian boy gets lost on the streets of Calcutta, thousands of kilometers from home. He survives many challenges before being adopted by a couple in Australia; 25 years later, he sets out to find his lost family.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Lion’s undeniably uplifting story and talented cast are more than enough to make up for a fact-based story whose traditional Hollywood formula skims over a number of interesting real-life details.

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13. Loving (50.73pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 89%
METASCORE 79/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 03min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-04 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Jeff Nichols
DIRECTED BY Jeff Nichols
STARRING Ruth Negga, Joel Edgerton, Will Dalton
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The story of Richard and Mildred Loving, an interracial couple, whose challenge of their anti-miscegenation arrest for their marriage in Virginia led to a legal battle that would end at the US Supreme Court.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Loving takes an understated approach to telling a painful – and still relevant – real-life tale, with sensitive performances breathing additional life into a superlative historical drama.

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14. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (49.29pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 75%
METASCORE 66/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 13min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-18 ●
GENRE Adventure / Family / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY J.K. Rowling
DIRECTED BY David Yates
STARRING Eddie Redmayne, Katherine Waterston, Alison Sudol
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The adventures of writer Newt Scamander in New York’s secret community of witches and wizards seventy years before Harry Potter reads his book in school.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them draws on Harry Potter’s rich mythology to deliver a spinoff that dazzles with franchise-building magic all its own.

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15. Doctor Strange (39.33pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 90%
METASCORE 72/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 55min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-04 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY Jon Spaihts, Scott Derrickson
DIRECTED BY Scott Derrickson
STARRING Benedict Cumberbatch, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Rachel McAdams
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A former neurosurgeon embarks on a journey of healing only to be drawn into the world of the mystic arts.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Doctor Strange artfully balances its outré source material against the blockbuster constraints of the MCU, delivering a thoroughly entertaining superhero origin story in the bargain.

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16. Nocturnal Animals (34.07pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 72%
METASCORE 67/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 56min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-09 ●
GENRE Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Tom Ford (screenplay), Austin Wright (novel)
DIRECTED BY Tom Ford
STARRING Amy Adams, Jake Gyllenhaal, Michael Shannon
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An art gallery owner is haunted by her ex-husband’s novel, a violent thriller she interprets as a veiled threat and a symbolic revenge tale.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Well-acted and lovely to look at, Nocturnal Animals further underscores writer-director Tom Ford’s distinctive visual and narrative skill.

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17. Hidden Figures (30.43pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 95%
METASCORE 66/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME TBD
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-06 ●
GENRE Drama
WRITTEN BY Allison Schroeder (screenplay), Theodore Melfi (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Theodore Melfi
STARRING Taraji P. Henson, Octavia Spencer, Janelle Monáe
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A team of African-American women provide NASA with important mathematical data needed to launch the program’s first successful space missions.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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18. Florence Foster Jenkins (28.11pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 87%
METASCORE 71/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 51min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-12 ●
GENRE Biography / Comedy / Drama
WRITTEN BY Nicholas Martin
DIRECTED BY Stephen Frears
STARRING Meryl Streep, Hugh Grant, Simon Helberg
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The story of Florence Foster Jenkins, a New York heiress who dreamed of becoming an opera singer, despite having a terrible singing voice.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Florence Foster Jenkins makes poignant, crowd-pleasing dramedy out of its stranger-than-fiction tale – and does its subject justice with a reliably terrific turn from star Meryl Streep.

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19. 20th Century Women (26.29pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 91%
METASCORE 77/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 58min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-25 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama
WRITTEN BY Mike Mills
DIRECTED BY Mike Mills
STARRING Annette Bening, Elle Fanning, Greta Gerwig
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The story of three women who explore love and freedom in Southern California during the late 1970s.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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20. Hell or High Water (23.38pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 98%
METASCORE 88/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 42min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-26 ●
GENRE Crime / Drama / Western
WRITTEN BY Taylor Sheridan (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY David Mackenzie
STARRING Dale Dickey, Ben Foster, Chris Pine
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A divorced father and his ex-con older brother resort to a desperate scheme in order to save their family’s ranch in West Texas.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Hell or High Water offers a solidly crafted, well-acted Western heist thriller that eschews mindless gunplay in favor of confident pacing and full-bodied characters.

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21. Sully (20.71pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 86%
METASCORE 74/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 36min
RELEASE DATE 2016-09-09 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama
WRITTEN BY Todd Komarnicki (screenplay), Chesley Sullenberger (based on the book “Highest Duty” by) (as Chesley ‘Sully’ Sullenberger)
DIRECTED BY Clint Eastwood
STARRING Tom Hanks, Aaron Eckhart, Laura Linney
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The story of Chesley Sullenberger, an American pilot who became a hero after landing his damaged plane on the Hudson River in order to save the flight’s passengers and crew.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As comfortingly workmanlike as its protagonist, Sully makes solid use of typically superlative work from its star and director to deliver a quietly stirring tribute to an everyday hero.

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22. Kubo and the Two Strings (20.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 97%
METASCORE 84/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 41min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-19 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Family
WRITTEN BY Marc Haimes (screenplay), Chris Butler (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Travis Knight
STARRING Charlize Theron, Art Parkinson, Matthew McConaughey
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A young boy named Kubo must locate a magical suit of armor worn by his late father in order to defeat a vengeful spirit from the past.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Kubo and the Two Strings matches its incredible animation with an absorbing – and bravely melancholy – story that has something to offer audiences of all ages.

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23. Live By Night (18.37pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES TBD
METASCORE n/a
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 08min
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-13 ●
GENRE Crime / Drama
WRITTEN BY Ben Affleck (screenplay), Dennis Lehane (novel)
DIRECTED BY Ben Affleck
STARRING Ben Affleck, Zoe Saldana, Elle Fanning
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A story set in the Prohibition Era and centered around a group of individuals and their dealings in the world of organized crime.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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24. Moana (15.38pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 95%
METASCORE 81/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 43min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-23 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Jared Bush (screenplay), Ron Clements (story by)
DIRECTED BY Ron Clements, Don Hall
STARRING Auli’i Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Rachel House
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In Ancient Polynesia, when a terrible curse incurred by Maui reaches an impetuous Chieftain’s daughter’s island, she answers the Ocean’s call to seek out the demigod to set things right.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: With a title character as three-dimensional as its lush animation and a story that adds fresh depth to Disney’s time-tested formula, Moana is truly a family-friendly adventure for the ages.

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25. Deepwater Horizon (13.85pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 84%
METASCORE 68/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 47min
RELEASE DATE 2016-09-30 ●
GENRE Action / Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Matthew Michael Carnahan (screenplay), Matthew Sand (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Peter Berg
STARRING Mark Wahlberg, Kurt Russell, Douglas M. Griffin
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A dramatization of the April 2010 disaster when the offshore drilling rig, Deepwater Horizon, exploded and created the worst oil spill in U.S. history.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Deepwater Horizon makes effective use of its titular man-made disaster to deliver an uncommonly serious – yet still suitably gripping – action thriller.

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26. Finding Dory (13.50pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 94%
METASCORE 77/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 37min
RELEASE DATE 2016-06-17 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Andrew Stanton (original story by), Andrew Stanton (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Andrew Stanton, Angus MacLane
STARRING Ellen DeGeneres, Albert Brooks, Ed O’Neill
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The friendly but forgetful blue tang fish begins a search for her long-lost parents, and everyone learns a few things about the real meaning of family along the way.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Funny, poignant, and thought-provoking, Finding Dory delivers a beautifully animated adventure that adds another entertaining chapter to its predecessor’s classic story.

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27. A Monster Calls (12.28pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 85%
METASCORE 77/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 48min
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-06 ●
GENRE Drama / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY Patrick Ness (screenplay), Patrick Ness (based upon the novel written by)
DIRECTED BY J.A. Bayona
STARRING Sigourney Weaver, Felicity Jones, Lewis MacDougall
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A boy seeks the help of a tree monster to cope with his single mom’s terminal illness.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: A Monster Calls deftly balances dark themes and fantastical elements to deliver an engrossing and uncommonly moving entry in the crowded coming-of-age genre.

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28. Rules Don’t Apply (11.17pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 56%
METASCORE 59/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 06min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-23 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Warren Beatty (screenplay), Warren Beatty (story by)
DIRECTED BY Warren Beatty
STARRING Lily Collins, Haley Bennett, Taissa Farmiga
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An unconventional love story of an aspiring actress, her determined driver, and the eccentric billionaire who they work for.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: With Rules Don’t Apply, Warren Beatty takes an overall affable – but undeniably slight – look at a corner of old Hollywood under Howard Hughes’ distinctive shadow.

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29. The Red Turtle (La tortue rouge) (9.09pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 90%
METASCORE 92/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 20min
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-20 ●
GENRE Animation / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY Michael Dudok de Wit (story), Pascale Ferran (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Michael Dudok de Wit
STARRING n/a
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The dialogue-less film follows the major life stages of a castaway on a deserted tropical island populated by turtles, crabs and birds.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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30. Sing (7.14pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 70%
METASCORE 57/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 48min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-21 ●
GENRE Animation / Comedy / Drama
WRITTEN BY Garth Jennings
DIRECTED BY Garth Jennings, Christophe Lourdelet
STARRING Matthew McConaughey, Reese Witherspoon, Seth MacFarlane
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A koala named Buster Moon has one final chance to restore his theater to its former glory by producing the world’s greatest singing competition.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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31. Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (7.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 63%
METASCORE 57/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 07min
RELEASE DATE 2016-09-30 ●
GENRE Adventure / Drama / Family
WRITTEN BY Ransom Riggs (based upon the novel written by), Jane Goldman (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Tim Burton
STARRING Eva Green, Asa Butterfield, Samuel L. Jackson
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: When Jacob discovers clues to a mystery that stretches across time, he finds Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. But the danger deepens after he gets to know the residents and learns about their special powers.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children proves a suitable match for Tim Burton’s distinctive style, even if it’s on stronger footing as a visual experience than a narrative one.

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32. Captain Fantastic (5.50pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 82%
METASCORE 72/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 58min
RELEASE DATE 2016-07-29 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Matt Ross
DIRECTED BY Matt Ross
STARRING Viggo Mortensen, George MacKay, Samantha Isler
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In the forests of the Pacific Northwest, a father devoted to raising his six kids with a rigorous physical and intellectual education is forced to leave his paradise and enter the world, challenging his idea of what it means to be a parent.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Captain Fantastic’s thought-provoking themes – and an absorbing starring turn from Viggo Mortensen – add up to an above-average family drama with unexpected twists.

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33. Passengers (5.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 31%
METASCORE 40/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 56min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-21 ●
GENRE Adventure / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Jon Spaihts
DIRECTED BY Morten Tyldum
STARRING Jennifer Lawrence, Chris Pratt, Michael Sheen
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A spacecraft traveling to a distant colony planet and transporting thousands of people has a malfunction in its sleep chambers. As a result, two passengers are awakened 90 years early.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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34. Deadpool (4.57pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 84%
METASCORE 65/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 48min
RELEASE DATE 2016-02-12 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Rhett Reese, Paul Wernick
DIRECTED BY Tim Miller
STARRING Ryan Reynolds, Morena Baccarin, T.J. Miller
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A fast-talking mercenary with a morbid sense of humor is subjected to a rogue experiment that leaves him with accelerated healing powers and a quest for revenge.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Fast, funny, and gleefully profane, the fourth-wall-busting Deadpool subverts superhero film formula with wildly entertaining – and decidedly non-family-friendly – results.

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35. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (4.25pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 45%
METASCORE 53/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 53min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-18 ●
GENRE Drama / War
WRITTEN BY Ben Fountain (based on the novel by), Jean-Christophe Castelli (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Ang Lee
STARRING Joe Alwyn, Garrett Hedlund, Arturo Castro
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: 19-year-old Billy Lynn is brought home for a victory tour after a harrowing Iraq battle. Through flashbacks the film shows what really happened to his squad contrasting the realities of war with America’s perceptions.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk has noble goals, but lacks a strong enough screenplay to achieve them – and its visual innovations are often merely distracting.

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36. Captain America: Civil War (4.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 90%
METASCORE 75/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 27min
RELEASE DATE 2016-05-06 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Sci-Fi
WRITTEN BY Christopher Markus (screenplay), Stephen McFeely (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Anthony Russo, Joe Russo
STARRING Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr., Scarlett Johansson
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Political interference in the Avengers’ activities causes a rift between former allies Captain America and Iron Man.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Captain America: Civil War begins the next wave of Marvel movies with an action-packed superhero blockbuster boasting a decidedly non-cartoonish plot and the courage to explore thought-provoking themes.

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37. Sausage Party (3.57pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 83%
METASCORE 66/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 29min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-12 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Kyle Hunter (screenplay), Ariel Shaffir (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Greg Tiernan, Conrad Vernon
STARRING Seth Rogen, Kristen Wiig, Jonah Hill
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A sausage strives to discover the truth about his existence.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Sausage Party is definitely offensive, but backs up its enthusiastic profanity with an impressively high laugh-to-gag ratio – and a surprisingly thought-provoking storyline.

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38. Allied (3.57pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 60%
METASCORE 60/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 04min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-23 ●
GENRE Action / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Steven Knight
DIRECTED BY Robert Zemeckis
STARRING Brad Pitt, Marion Cotillard, Jared Harris
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In 1942, an intelligence officer in North Africa encounters a female French Resistance fighter on a deadly mission behind enemy lines. When they reunite in London, their relationship is tested by the pressures of war.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Allied has its moments, but doesn’t quite achieve epic wartime romance status – a disappointment made more profound by the dazzling talent assembled on either side of the camera.

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39. Hail, Caesar! (3.04pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 85%
METASCORE 72/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 46min
RELEASE DATE 2016-02-05 ●
GENRE Comedy / Mystery
WRITTEN BY Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
DIRECTED BY Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
STARRING Josh Brolin, George Clooney, Alden Ehrenreich
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A Hollywood fixer in the 1950s works to keep the studio’s stars in line.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Packed with period detail and perfectly cast, Hail, Caesar! finds the Coen brothers delivering an agreeably lightweight love letter to post-war Hollywood.

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40. The Birth of a Nation (3.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 72%
METASCORE 68/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 00min
RELEASE DATE 2016-10-07 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / History
WRITTEN BY Nate Parker (screenplay), Nate Parker (story by)
DIRECTED BY Nate Parker
STARRING Nate Parker, Armie Hammer, Penelope Ann Miller
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Nat Turner, a literate slave and preacher in the antebellum South, orchestrates an uprising.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: The Birth of a Nation overpowers its narrative flaws and uneven execution through sheer conviction, rising on Nate Parker’s assured direction and the strength of its vital message.

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41. Love & Friendship (2.77pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 98%
METASCORE 87/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 32min
RELEASE DATE 2016-06-03 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Jane Austen (based on her novella “Lady Susan”), Whit Stillman
DIRECTED BY Whit Stillman
STARRING Kate Beckinsale, Chloë Sevigny, Xavier Samuel
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Lady Susan Vernon takes up temporary residence at her in-laws’ estate and, while there, is determined to be a matchmaker for her daughter Frederica – and herself too, naturally.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Love & Friendship finds director Whit Stillman bringing his talents to bear on a Jane Austen adaptation – with a thoroughly delightful period drama as the result.

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42. The Founder (2.52pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 78%
METASCORE 64/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 55min
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-20 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / History
WRITTEN BY Robert D. Siegel
DIRECTED BY John Lee Hancock
STARRING Linda Cardellini, Patrick Wilson, Michael Keaton
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The story of McDonald’s founder Ray Kroc.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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43. Star Trek Beyond (2.52pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 84%
METASCORE 68/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 02min
RELEASE DATE 2016-07-22 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Sci-Fi
WRITTEN BY Simon Pegg, Doug Jung
DIRECTED BY Justin Lin
STARRING Chris Pine, Zachary Quinto, Karl Urban
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The USS Enterprise crew explores the furthest reaches of uncharted space, where they encounter a new ruthless enemy who puts them and everything the Federation stands for to the test.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Star Trek Beyond continues the franchise’s post-reboot hot streak with an epic sci-fi adventure that honors the series’ sci-fi roots without skimping on the blockbuster action.

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44. Elle (2.52pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 89%
METASCORE 89/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 10min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-11 ●
GENRE Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Philippe Djian (based on the novel by), David Birke (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Paul Verhoeven
STARRING Isabelle Huppert, Laurent Lafitte, Anne Consigny
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A successful businesswoman gets caught up in a game of cat and mouse as she tracks down the unknown man who raped her.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Elle finds director Paul Verhoeven operating at peak power – and benefiting from a typically outstanding performance from Isabelle Huppert in the central role.

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45. The Little Prince (2.50pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 93%
METASCORE 69/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 48min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-05 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Drama
WRITTEN BY Irena Brignull (screenplay), Bob Persichetti (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Mark Osborne
STARRING Jeff Bridges, Mackenzie Foy, Rachel McAdams
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A little girl lives in a very grown-up world with her mother, who tries to prepare her for it. Her neighbor, the Aviator, introduces the girl to an extraordinary world where anything is possible, the world of the Little Prince.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Beautifully animated and faithful to the spirit of its classic source material, The Little Prince is a family-friendly treat that anchors thrilling visuals with a satisfying story.

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46. Miss Sloane (2.50pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 69%
METASCORE 64/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 12min
RELEASE DATE 2016-12-09 ●
GENRE Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Jonathan Perera
DIRECTED BY John Madden
STARRING Jessica Chastain, Gugu Mbatha-Raw, John Lithgow
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In the world of political power-brokers, Sloane takes on the most powerful opponent of her career and will do whatever is required to win.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Miss Sloane sits squarely on the shoulder’s of Jessica Chastain’s performance – and she responds with awards-worthy work that single-handedly elevates the film.

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47. Denial (1.52pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 81%
METASCORE 64/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 49min
RELEASE DATE 2016-10-21 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / History
WRITTEN BY David Hare (screenplay), Deborah Lipstadt (book)
DIRECTED BY Mick Jackson
STARRING Rachel Weisz, Tom Wilkinson, Timothy Spall
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Acclaimed writer and historian Deborah E. Lipstadt must battle for historical truth to prove the Holocaust actually occurred when David Irving, a renowned denier, sues her for libel.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: If Denial doesn’t quite do its incredible story complete justice, it comes close enough to offer a satisfying, impactful drama – and another powerful performance from Rachel Weisz.

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48. Trolls (1.25pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 76%
METASCORE 56/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 32min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-04 ●
GENRE Animation / Adventure / Comedy
WRITTEN BY Jonathan Aibel (screenplay), Glenn Berger (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Walt Dohrn, Mike Mitchell
STARRING Anna Kendrick, Justin Timberlake, Zooey Deschanel
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: After the Bergens invade Troll Village, Poppy, the happiest Troll ever born, and the curmudgeonly Branch set off on a journey to rescue her friends.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Trolls brings its instantly recognizable characters to the big screen in a colorful adventure that, while geared toward the younger set, isn’t without rewards for parents.

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49. Warcraft (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 28%
METASCORE 32/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 2h 03min
RELEASE DATE 2016-06-10 ●
GENRE Action / Adventure / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY Charles Leavitt (screenplay), Duncan Jones (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Duncan Jones
STARRING Travis Fimmel, Paula Patton, Ben Foster
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: As an Orc horde invades the planet Azeroth using a magic portal, a few human heroes and dissenting Orcs must attempt to stop the true evil behind this war.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Warcraft has visual thrills to spare, but they – and director Duncan Jones’ distinctive gifts – are wasted on a sluggish and derivative adaptation of a bestselling game with little evident cinematic value.

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50. The Lobster (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 90%
METASCORE 82/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 59min
RELEASE DATE 2016-05-13 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou (as Efthimis Filippou)
DIRECTED BY Yorgos Lanthimos
STARRING Colin Farrell, Rachel Weisz, Jessica Barden
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In a dystopian near future, single people, according to the laws of The City, are taken to The Hotel, where they are obliged to find a romantic partner in forty-five days or are transformed into beasts and sent off into The Woods.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: As strange as it is thrillingly ambitious, The Lobster is definitely an acquired taste – but for viewers with the fortitude to crack through Yorgos Lanthimos’ offbeat sensibilities, it should prove a savory cinematic treat.

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51. The Hollars (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 43%
METASCORE 53/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 28min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-26 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY James C. Strouse (as Jim Strouse)
DIRECTED BY John Krasinski
STARRING Sharlto Copley, Charlie Day, Richard Jenkins
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A man returns to his small hometown after learning that his mother has fallen ill and is about to undergo surgery.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: The Hollars gathers an impressive assortment of talented stars; unfortunately, it’s all in service of a story that’s been played out more effectively in countless other indie dramedies.

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52. The BFG (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 75%
METASCORE 66/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 1h 57min
RELEASE DATE 2016-07-01 ●
GENRE Adventure / Family / Fantasy
WRITTEN BY Melissa Mathison (screenplay), Roald Dahl (book)
DIRECTED BY Steven Spielberg
STARRING Mark Rylance, Ruby Barnhill, Penelope Wilton
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A girl named Sophie encounters the Big Friendly Giant who, despite his intimidating appearance, turns out to be a kind-hearted soul who is considered an outcast by the other giants because, unlike them, he refuses to eat children.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: The BFG minimizes the darker elements of Roald Dahl’s classic in favor of a resolutely good-natured, visually stunning, and largely successful family-friendly adventure.

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53. Snowden (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 62%
METASCORE 58/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 2h 14min
RELEASE DATE 2016-09-16 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Kieran Fitzgerald (screenplay), Oliver Stone (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Oliver Stone
STARRING Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Shailene Woodley, Melissa Leo
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The NSA’s illegal surveillance techniques are leaked to the public by one of the agency’s employees, Edward Snowden, in the form of thousands of classified documents distributed to the press.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Snowden boasts a thrilling fact-based tale and a solid lead performance from Joseph Gordon-Levitt, even if director Oliver Stone saps the story of some of its impact by playing it safe.

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54. Queen of Katwe (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 92%
METASCORE 73/100
RATING PG
RUNTIME 2h 04min
RELEASE DATE 2016-09-30 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / Sport
WRITTEN BY William Wheeler (screenplay), Tim Crothers (based on the ESPN Magazine article and book by)
DIRECTED BY Mira Nair
STARRING Madina Nalwanga, David Oyelowo, Lupita Nyong’o
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: A Ugandan girl sees her world rapidly change after being introduced to the game of chess.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Queen of Katwe is a feel-good movie of uncommon smarts and passion, and outstanding performances by Lupita Nyong’o and David Oyelowo help to elevate the film past its cliches.

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55. Patriots Day (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 93%
METASCORE 72/100
RATING TBD
RUNTIME 2h 10min
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-13 ●
GENRE Drama / History / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Peter Berg (screenplay), Matt Cook (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Peter Berg
STARRING Melissa Benoist, Mark Wahlberg, Michelle Monaghan
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An account of Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis’s actions in the events leading up to the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing and the aftermath, which includes the city-wide manhunt to find the terrorists behind it.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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56. My Life as a Zucchini (Ma vie de Courgette) (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 100%
METASCORE 85/100
RATING TBD
RUNTIME 1h 10min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-11 ●
GENRE Animation / Family
WRITTEN BY Gilles Paris (novel), Céline Sciamma (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Claude Barras
STARRING Gaspard Schlatter, Sixtine Murat, Paulin Jaccoud
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: Courgette is an intriguing nickname for a 9-year-old boy. Although his unique story is surprisingly universal. After his mother’s sudden death, Courgette is befriended by a police officer … See full summary »

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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57. Miss Hokusai (Sarusuberi: Miss Hokusai) (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 93%
METASCORE 74/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 33min
RELEASE DATE 2015-10-14 ●
GENRE Animation / Biography / Drama
WRITTEN BY Hinako Sugiura (comic “Sarusuberi”), Miho Maruo (screenplay)
DIRECTED BY Keiichi Hara
STARRING Yutaka Matsushige, Anne Watanabe, Erica Lindbeck
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The life and works of Japanese artist and ukiyo-e painter Katsushika Hokusai, as seen from the eyes of his daughter, Katsushika O-Ei.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Miss Hokusai illuminates the life and creative legacy of its brilliant subject with a beautifully animated biopic whose absorbing visuals are matched by its narrative grace.

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58. Gold (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES TBD
METASCORE n/a
RATING R
RUNTIME TBD
RELEASE DATE 2017-01-27 ●
GENRE Adventure / Drama / Thriller
WRITTEN BY Patrick Massett, John Zinman
DIRECTED BY Stephen Gaghan
STARRING Bryce Dallas Howard, Matthew McConaughey, Toby Kebbell
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: An unlikely pair venture to the Indonesian jungle in search of gold.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: No consensus yet.

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59. Café Society (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 70%
METASCORE 64/100
RATING PG-13
RUNTIME 1h 36min
RELEASE DATE 2016-08-05 ●
GENRE Comedy / Drama / Romance
WRITTEN BY Woody Allen
DIRECTED BY Woody Allen
STARRING Jesse Eisenberg, Kristen Stewart, Steve Carell
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: In the 1930s, a Bronx native moves to Hollywood and falls in love with a young woman who is seeing a married man.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Café Society’s lovely visuals and charming performances round out a lightweight late-period Allen comedy whose genuine pleasures offset its amiable predictability.

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60. Bleed for This (1.00pts)

ROTTEN TOMATOES 70%
METASCORE 62/100
RATING R
RUNTIME 1h 57min
RELEASE DATE 2016-11-18 ●
GENRE Biography / Drama / Sport
WRITTEN BY Ben Younger (screenplay), Ben Younger (story)
DIRECTED BY Ben Younger
STARRING Miles Teller, Aaron Eckhart, Katey Sagal
LINKS Showtimes - Wikipedia - IMDB - Metacritic - Rotten Tomatoes

SYNOPSIS: The inspirational story of World Champion Boxer Vinny Pazienza who, after a near fatal car crash which left him not knowing if he’d ever walk again, made one of sport’s most incredible comebacks.

CRITICS CONSENSUS: Bleed for This rises on the strength of Miles Teller’s starring performance to deliver a solid fact-based boxing drama that takes a few genre clichés on the chin but keeps on coming.

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  1. At first, I was getting runtimes from Rotten Tomatoes. But weirdly enough, IMDB and Rotten Tomatoes have slightly different runtimes for a bunch of movies! I wonder why that is? For consistency’s sake, I’ve used IMDB’s runtimes for everything. ↩︎

  2. One major annoyance now that I’ve been getting into more serious/”Oscar-bait” movies lately: they don’t always have firm release dates, so you never know when they’ll show up at your local theater! Unlike major blockbusters, which open everywhere on the same date, these small films often open in only about 100 theaters (for comparison’s sake, Rogue One opened in 4,157, and then gradually expand if they do well. But some theaters drop these movies quickly, even as they expand to others! For example, I really wanted to see Moonlight when it debuted, but it was only playing at two theaters way out of the way for me. I had family in the hospital at the time, so by the time I had time to watch the movie, it was out of those theaters. I thought I was out of luck until it surprisingly showed up at my local theater weeks later. And even now, I’ve been driving to theaters all over the place to be able to watch films like The Edge of Seventeen or Nocturnal Animals (both so great!) because they’re not at my local theater and I don’t know if they ever will be. ↩︎

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Oscars checklist: Figuring out which movies are most likely to be nominated for awards so I can watch them while they're still in theaters Dec 04

Last year, I tried to watch every movie nominated for an Oscar. But I missed a couple because by the time nominations were announced, those movies were out of theaters but not yet out on DVD/Blu-Ray/iTunes.

This year, I decided to try to figure out the Oscar-nominated movies ahead of time. I used data from GoldDerby.com, a Hollywood awards-prediction site. They have ongoing odds calculations for 18 major categories, which I used to allocate points to each movie.

(Yes, this is all pretty stupid, since the biggest awards contenders are already pretty well-known. But I was curious about the movies that might have flown more under-the-radar, and anyways, it was a fun exercise for me in using Markdown tables!)

Shortcuts

Sort by category

Here’s the original set of data, sorted by Oscar category. It is all sourced from Gold Derby’s experts predictions for the 2017 Oscars ceremony. I downloaded the data sometime in the last week of November, so my numbers may be a little different than the latest odds. The only thing I’ve added is the points column, which I explain below.

An explanation of the columns:

  • NOM = The number of experts who believe a film will be nominated for that award.
  • WIN = The number of experts who believe a film will win for that award.
  • ODDS = GoldDerby’s odds of a movie winning that award.
  • PTS = My very simple formula for allocating points. It’s just 100 divided by the odds. For example, a title with 20/1 odds is calculated as 100/ODDS = 100/(20/1) = 100/20 = 5 points. You can think of it as roughly the percentage chance of the movie winning that award.1

One other thing of note: if you look at the original charts on Gold Derby, every category has numerous movies with 100/1 odds and zero experts predicting a nomination or win. I think Gold Derby keeps them around because they were thought at one time to be contenders, but they serve no real purpose for my needs, so I have omitted them from my charts below. Also, I don’t understand how Gold Derby sorts movies with the same odds ranking because there were a few categories with a movie with 100/1 odds and 1 nomination prediction ranked well below a bunch of movies with 100/1 odds and 0 nomination predictions. This is why the last entry in some of the charts has a very different NUM rank than the preceding entry.

Best Picture

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 26 22 9/2 22.22
2 Manchester by the Sea 26 4 13/2 15.38
3 Moonlight 26 0 9/1 11.11
4 Fences 25 0 9/1 11.11
5 Loving 22 1 12/1 8.33
6 Silence 21 0 14/1 7.14
7 Lion 20 0 14/1 7.14
8 Jackie 18 0 16/1 6.25
9 Arrival 15 0 20/1 5.00
10 Sully 14 0 28/1 3.57
11 Hidden Figures 10 0 33/1 3.03
12 Hell or High Water 6 0 50/1 2.00
13 Hacksaw Ridge 7 0 66/1 1.52
14 A Monster Calls 2 0 100/1 1.00
15 Nocturnal Animals 4 0 100/1 1.00
16 Patriot’s Day 1 0 100/1 1.00
17 The Birth of a Nation 4 0 100/1 1.00
18 20th Century Women 1 0 100/1 1.00
19 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 2 0 100/1 1.00
20 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Director

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Damien Chazelle) 26 22 17/10 58.82
2 Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan) 26 4 4/1 25.00
3 Moonlight (Barry Jenkins) 23 0 6/1 16.67
4 Silence (Martin Scorsese) 14 0 12/1 8.33
5 Fences (Denzel Washington) 14 1 12/1 8.33
6 Jackie (Pablo Larrain) 7 0 33/1 3.03
7 Loving (Jeff Nichols) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Arrival (Denis Villeneuve) 4 0 66/1 1.52
9 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee) 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Lion (Garth Davis) 2 0 80/1 1.25
11 Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Passengers (Morten Tyldum) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Sully (Clint Eastwood) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson) 1 0 100/1 1.00
36 Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck) 26 17 2/1 50.00
2 Fences (Denzel Washington) 24 10 14/5 35.71
3 La La Land (Ryan Gosling) 22 0 13/2 15.38
4 Loving (Joel Edgerton) 17 0 9/1 11.11
5 Sully (Tom Hanks) 14 0 14/1 7.14
6 Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen) 5 0 40/1 2.50
7 Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield) 6 0 40/1 2.50
8 The Founder (Michael Keaton) 3 0 66/1 1.52
9 Silence (Andrew Garfield) 3 0 80/1 1.25
10 Rules Don’t Apply (Warren Beatty) 2 0 100/1 1.00
11 Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker) 2 0 100/1 1.00
13 Gold (Matthew McConaughey) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land (Emma Stone) 26 17 21/10 47.62
2 Jackie (Natalie Portman) 25 6 7/2 28.57
3 Loving (Ruth Negga) 23 2 6/1 16.67
4 20th Century Women (Annette Bening) 20 1 7/1 14.29
5 Arrival (Amy Adams) 15 0 14/1 7.14
6 Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson) 4 1 25/1 4.00
7 Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain) 5 0 40/1 2.50
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep) 4 0 50/1 2.00
9 Elle (Isabelle Huppert) 4 0 66/1 1.52
10 Fences (Viola Davis) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actor

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Moonlight (Mahershala Ali) 24 13 12/5 41.67
2 Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges) 22 4 9/2 22.22
3 Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges) 18 2 13/2 15.38
4 Lion (Dev Patel) 14 3 9/1 11.11
5 Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon) 14 3 9/1 11.11
6 Silence (Liam Neeson) 10 2 12/1 8.33
7 Fences (Stephen Henderson) 5 0 50/1 2.00
8 Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant) 6 0 50/1 2.00
9 Fences (Jovan Adepo) 4 0 50/1 2.00
10 Denial (Timothy Spall) 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart) 2 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Hell or High Water (Ben Foster) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner) 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler) 1 0 100/1 1.00
25 Fences (Mykelti Williamson) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Supporting Actress

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences (Viola Davis) 25 19 2/1 50.00
2 Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams) 23 8 10/3 30.00
3 Moonlight (Naomie Harris) 24 0 5/1 20.00
4 Lion (Nicole Kidman) 20 0 9/1 11.11
5 20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig) 10 0 20/1 5.00
6 Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae) 8 0 22/1 4.55
7 A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones) 7 0 33/1 3.03
8 The Hollars (Margo Martindale) 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King) 3 0 100/1 1.00
10 20th Century Women (Elle Fanning) 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong’o) 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart) 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 The Founder (Laura Dern) 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams) 1 0 100/1 1.00
23 Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer) 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Original Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Manchester by the Sea 24 18 2/1 50.00
2 Moonlight 23 5 7/2 28.57
3 La La Land 23 2 9/2 22.22
4 Loving 13 1 11/1 9.09
5 Jackie 15 0 12/1 8.33
6 Hell or High Water 8 0 20/1 5.00
7 20th Century Women 10 0 20/1 5.00
8 Captain Fantastic 2 0 100/1 1.00
9 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
22 The Lobster 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Adapted Screenplay

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Fences 21 19 19/10 52.63
2 Arrival 21 2 5/1 20.00
3 Silence 20 2 11/2 18.18
4 Lion 17 1 15/2 13.33
5 Nocturnal Animals 12 1 12/1 8.33
6 Hidden Figures 11 0 16/1 6.25
7 A Monster Calls 6 1 25/1 4.00
8 Hacksaw Ridge 2 0 66/1 1.52
9 Love and Friendship 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 Elle 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Finding Dory 1 0 100/1 1.00
21 Snowden 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Animated Feature

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Zootopia 21 16 15/8 53.33
2 Kubo and the Two Strings 18 2 5/1 20.00
3 Moana 15 2 13/2 15.38
4 Finding Dory 14 0 8/1 12.50
5 The Red Turtle 13 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sing 9 1 14/1 7.14
7 Sausage Party 6 0 28/1 3.57
8 The Little Prince 4 0 40/1 2.50
9 Trolls 2 0 80/1 1.25
10 My Life as a Zucchini 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Miss Hokusai 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Visual Effects

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Doctor Strange 8 4 3/1 33.33
2 The Jungle Book 6 5 10/3 30.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 1 11/2 18.18
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 0 9/1 11.11
5 Arrival 4 1 10/1 10.00
6 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 5 0 20/1 5.00
7 Captain America: Civil War 3 0 25/1 4.00
8 Sully 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 66/1 1.52
10 The BFG 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 A Monster Calls 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Warcraft 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Deadpool 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Cinematography

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 18 14 19/10 52.63
2 Silence 15 2 6/1 16.67
3 Arrival 13 2 6/1 16.67
4 Jackie 13 0 9/1 11.11
5 Moonlight 12 0 9/1 11.11
6 Live By Night 4 0 28/1 3.57
7 Nocturnal Animals 2 1 33/1 3.03
8 Lion 3 0 50/1 2.00
9 The Jungle Book 3 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hail, Caesar! 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 A Monster Calls 2 0 80/1 1.25
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Cafe Society 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Film Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 10 2/1 50.00
2 Silence 9 1 11/2 18.18
3 Jackie 9 1 13/2 15.38
4 Hacksaw Ridge 8 0 10/1 10.00
5 Moonlight 6 0 11/1 9.09
6 Sully 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 The Jungle Book 2 1 28/1 3.57
8 Hidden Figures 2 0 28/1 3.57
9 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 28/1 3.57
10 Arrival 3 0 33/1 3.03
11 Deepwater Horizon 2 0 66/1 1.52
12 Lion 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Manchester by the Sea 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Score

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 12 11 9/5 55.56
2 Jackie 10 2 4/1 25.00
3 Silence 9 1 7/1 14.29
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 6 0 14/1 7.14
5 Arrival 3 0 14/1 7.14
6 Lion 4 0 22/1 4.55
7 The Jungle Book 5 0 25/1 4.00
8 Nocturnal Animals 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Hidden Figures 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Moonlight 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 66/1 1.52
12 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
13 Live By Night 1 0 100/1 1.00
14 Zootopia 1 0 100/1 1.00
15 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Sound Editing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Hacksaw Ridge 9 9 7/4 57.14
2 La La Land 8 2 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7 0 13/2 15.38
4 Deepwater Horizon 6 0 12/1 8.33
5 Silence 4 0 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 4 0 14/1 7.14
7 Arrival 2 0 25/1 4.00
8 Live By Night 1 0 50/1 2.00
9 Doctor Strange 1 0 100/1 1.00
10 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Sound Mixing

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 9 11 3/2 66.67
2 Hacksaw Ridge 9 0 4/1 25.00
3 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8 0 11/2 18.18
4 Silence 5 0 10/1 10.00
5 The Jungle Book 4 0 16/1 6.25
6 Deepwater Horizon 4 0 25/1 4.00
7 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 2 0 50/1 2.00
8 Passengers 1 0 100/1 1.00
9 Arrival 1 0 100/1 1.00
11 Star Trek Beyond 1 0 100/1 1.00
12 Sully 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Production Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 La La Land 11 11 19/10 52.63
2 Jackie 11 0 6/1 16.67
3 Silence 9 0 13/2 15.38
4 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9 1 15/2 13.33
5 Rules Don’t Apply 5 1 14/1 7.14
6 The Jungle Book 3 1 22/1 4.55
7 Live By Night 2 0 22/1 4.55
8 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 0 28/1 3.57
9 Hidden Figures 3 0 33/1 3.03
10 Hail, Caesar! 1 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 80/1 1.25
12 Florence Foster Jenkins 1 0 100/1 1.00
13 Fences 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Costume Design

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 5 11/4 36.36
2 La La Land 10 6 14/5 35.71
3 Silence 7 1 6/1 16.67
4 Florence Foster Jenkins 7 1 8/1 12.50
5 Live By Night 3 0 16/1 6.25
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 5 0 18/1 5.56
7 Allied 4 0 28/1 3.57
8 Rules Don’t Apply 3 0 33/1 3.03
9 Captain Fantastic 2 0 50/1 2.00
10 Love and Friendship 2 0 66/1 1.52
11 Hidden Figures 1 0 100/1 1.00

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

NUM NAME NOM WIN ODDS PTS
1 Jackie 11 10 5/4 80.00
2 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 6 1 7/1 14.29
3 Silence 5 0 9/1 11.11
4 Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 3 1 11/1 9.09
5 Florence Foster Jenkins 3 1 11/1 9.09
6 Doctor Strange 1 1 25/1 4.00
7 Deadpool 2 0 28/1 3.57
8 Loving 2 0 33/1 3.03
9 A Monster Calls 1 0 50/1 2.00
10 Hacksaw Ridge 1 0 50/1 2.00
11 Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 1 0 50/1 2.00

Sort by movie

If you want to browse through all the different movies, here you go.

(As I mentioned earlier, I started this whole post as a way of experimenting with Markdown tables. But it turns out multi-line cells in Markdown tables are not supported by most Markdown converters, including the one in my blog software, Jekyll. Rather than try to painstakingly convert it manually, I’m just embedding my big ol’ plain text chart here instead.)

If you don’t want to skim through this, feel free to jump down to the list sorted by score instead.

|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| TOTAL  |                       TITLE                       |           CATEGORY          |          NOM           |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  26.29 | 20th Century Women (Annette Bening)               | Best Actress                | 14.29 pts (7/1 odds)   |
|        | 20th Century Women (Greta Gerwig)                 | Best Supporting Actress     | 05.00 pts (20/1 odds)  |
|        | 20th Century Women                                | Best Original Screenplay    | 05.00 pts (20/1 odds)  |
|        | 20th Century Women (Elle Fanning)                 | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | 20th Century Women                                | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  12.28 | A Monster Calls                                   | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | A Monster Calls (Felicity Jones)                  | Best Supporting Actress     | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | A Monster Calls                                   | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | A Monster Calls                                   | Best Cinematography         | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|        | A Monster Calls                                   | Best Visual Effects         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | A Monster Calls                                   | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   3.57 | Allied                                            | Best Costume Design         | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   75.5 | Arrival                                           | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 20.00 pts (5/1 odds)   |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Cinematography         | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Visual Effects         | 10.00 pts (10/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival (Amy Adams)                               | Best Actress                | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Score                  | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Picture                | 05.00 pts (20/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Sound Editing          | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Film Editing           | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival (Denis Villeneuve)                        | Best Director               | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Arrival                                           | Best Sound Mixing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   4.25 | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk                   | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Ang Lee)         | Best Director               | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|        | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Kristen Stewart) | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Steve Martin)    | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Bleed for This (Aaron Eckhart)                    | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Cafe Society                                      | Best Cinematography         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      4 | Captain America: Civil War                        | Best Visual Effects         | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|    5.5 | Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen)               | Best Actor                  | 02.50 pts (40/1 odds)  |
|        | Captain Fantastic                                 | Best Costume Design         | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Captain Fantastic                                 | Best Original Screenplay    | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   4.57 | Deadpool                                          | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | Deadpool                                          | Best Visual Effects         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  13.85 | Deepwater Horizon                                 | Best Sound Editing          | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Deepwater Horizon                                 | Best Sound Mixing           | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | Deepwater Horizon                                 | Best Film Editing           | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   1.52 | Denial (Timothy Spall)                            | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  39.33 | Doctor Strange                                    | Best Visual Effects         | 33.33 pts (3/1 odds)   |
|        | Doctor Strange                                    | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | Doctor Strange                                    | Best Sound Editing          | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Doctor Strange                                    | Best Cinematography         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   2.52 | Elle (Isabelle Huppert)                           | Best Actress                | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Elle                                              | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  49.29 | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 14.29 pts (7/1 odds)   |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Production Design      | 13.33 pts (15/2 odds)  |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Visual Effects         | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Costume Design         | 05.56 pts (18/1 odds)  |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Sound Mixing           | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Sound Editing          | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Film Editing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them           | Best Cinematography         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| 165.78 | Fences                                            | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 52.63 pts (19/10 odds) |
|        | Fences (Viola Davis)                              | Best Supporting Actress     | 50.00 pts (2/1 odds)   |
|        | Fences (Denzel Washington)                        | Best Actor                  | 35.71 pts (14/5 odds)  |
|        | Fences                                            | Best Picture                | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Fences (Denzel Washington)                        | Best Director               | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Fences (Stephen Henderson)                        | Best Supporting Actor       | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Fences (Jovan Adepo)                              | Best Supporting Actor       | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Fences (Viola Davis)                              | Best Actress                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Fences (Mykelti Williamson)                       | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Fences                                            | Best Score                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Fences                                            | Best Production Design      | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   13.5 | Finding Dory                                      | Best Animated Feature       | 12.50 pts (8/1 odds)   |
|        | Finding Dory                                      | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  28.11 | Florence Foster Jenkins                           | Best Costume Design         | 12.50 pts (8/1 odds)   |
|        | Florence Foster Jenkins                           | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 09.09 pts (11/1 odds)  |
|        | Florence Foster Jenkins (Meryl Streep)            | Best Actress                | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Florence Foster Jenkins (Hugh Grant)              | Best Supporting Actor       | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Florence Foster Jenkins                           | Best Score                  | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Florence Foster Jenkins                           | Best Production Design      | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Gold (Matthew McConaughey)                        | Best Actor                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| 103.18 | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Sound Editing          | 57.14 pts (7/4 odds)   |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Sound Mixing           | 25.00 pts (4/1 odds)   |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Film Editing           | 10.00 pts (10/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Garfield)                   | Best Actor                  | 02.50 pts (40/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Picture                | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Score                  | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge                                     | Best Production Design      | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|        | Hacksaw Ridge (Mel Gibson)                        | Best Director               | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   3.04 | Hail, Caesar!                                     | Best Production Design      | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Hail, Caesar!                                     | Best Cinematography         | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  23.38 | Hell or High Water (Jeff Bridges)                 | Best Supporting Actor       | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|        | Hell or High Water                                | Best Original Screenplay    | 05.00 pts (20/1 odds)  |
|        | Hell or High Water                                | Best Picture                | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Hell or High Water (Ben Foster)                   | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  30.43 | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 06.25 pts (16/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures (Janelle Monae)                    | Best Supporting Actress     | 04.55 pts (22/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures (Taraji P. Henson)                 | Best Actress                | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Film Editing           | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Production Design      | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Picture                | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Score                  | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Hidden Figures (Theodore Melfi)                   | Best Director               | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Hidden Figures (Octavia Spencer)                  | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Hidden Figures (Kevin Costner)                    | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Hidden Figures                                    | Best Costume Design         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  230.7 | Jackie                                            | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 80.00 pts (5/4 odds)   |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Costume Design         | 36.36 pts (11/4 odds)  |
|        | Jackie (Natalie Portman)                          | Best Actress                | 28.57 pts (7/2 odds)   |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Score                  | 25.00 pts (4/1 odds)   |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Production Design      | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Film Editing           | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Cinematography         | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Original Screenplay    | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Jackie                                            | Best Picture                | 06.25 pts (16/1 odds)  |
|        | Jackie (Pablo Larrain)                            | Best Director               | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|     20 | Kubo and the Two Strings                          | Best Animated Feature       | 20.00 pts (5/1 odds)   |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| 504.46 | La La Land                                        | Best Sound Mixing           | 66.67 pts (3/2 odds)   |
|        | La La Land (Damien Chazelle)                      | Best Director               | 58.82 pts (17/10 odds) |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Score                  | 55.56 pts (9/5 odds)   |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Production Design      | 52.63 pts (19/10 odds) |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Cinematography         | 52.63 pts (19/10 odds) |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Film Editing           | 50.00 pts (2/1 odds)   |
|        | La La Land (Emma Stone)                           | Best Actress                | 47.62 pts (21/10 odds) |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Costume Design         | 35.71 pts (14/5 odds)  |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Sound Editing          | 25.00 pts (4/1 odds)   |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Picture                | 22.22 pts (9/2 odds)   |
|        | La La Land                                        | Best Original Screenplay    | 22.22 pts (9/2 odds)   |
|        | La La Land (Ryan Gosling)                         | Best Actor                  | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  51.49 | Lion                                              | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 13.33 pts (15/2 odds)  |
|        | Lion (Nicole Kidman)                              | Best Supporting Actress     | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Lion (Dev Patel)                                  | Best Supporting Actor       | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Lion                                              | Best Picture                | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Lion                                              | Best Score                  | 04.55 pts (22/1 odds)  |
|        | Lion                                              | Best Cinematography         | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Lion (Garth Davis)                                | Best Director               | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|        | Lion                                              | Best Film Editing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  18.37 | Live By Night                                     | Best Costume Design         | 06.25 pts (16/1 odds)  |
|        | Live By Night                                     | Best Production Design      | 04.55 pts (22/1 odds)  |
|        | Live By Night                                     | Best Cinematography         | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | Live By Night                                     | Best Sound Editing          | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Live By Night                                     | Best Score                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Live By Night                                     | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   2.77 | Love and Friendship                               | Best Costume Design         | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Love and Friendship                               | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  50.73 | Loving (Ruth Negga)                               | Best Actress                | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Loving (Joel Edgerton)                            | Best Actor                  | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Loving                                            | Best Original Screenplay    | 09.09 pts (11/1 odds)  |
|        | Loving                                            | Best Picture                | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Loving                                            | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Loving (Jeff Nichols)                             | Best Director               | 02.50 pts (40/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  194.6 | Manchester by the Sea (Casey Affleck)             | Best Actor                  | 50.00 pts (2/1 odds)   |
|        | Manchester by the Sea                             | Best Original Screenplay    | 50.00 pts (2/1 odds)   |
|        | Manchester by the Sea (Michelle Williams)         | Best Supporting Actress     | 30.00 pts (10/3 odds)  |
|        | Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)          | Best Director               | 25.00 pts (4/1 odds)   |
|        | Manchester by the Sea (Lucas Hedges)              | Best Supporting Actor       | 22.22 pts (9/2 odds)   |
|        | Manchester by the Sea                             | Best Picture                | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|        | Manchester by the Sea (Kyle Chandler)             | Best Supporting Actor       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Manchester by the Sea                             | Best Film Editing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Miss Hokusai                                      | Best Animated Feature       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      7 | Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children       | Best Visual Effects         | 05.00 pts (20/1 odds)  |
|        | Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children       | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|    2.5 | Miss Sloane (Jessica Chastain)                    | Best Actress                | 02.50 pts (40/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  15.38 | Moana                                             | Best Animated Feature       | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| 139.74 | Moonlight (Mahershala Ali)                        | Best Supporting Actor       | 41.67 pts (12/5 odds)  |
|        | Moonlight                                         | Best Original Screenplay    | 28.57 pts (7/2 odds)   |
|        | Moonlight (Naomie Harris)                         | Best Supporting Actress     | 20.00 pts (5/1 odds)   |
|        | Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)                         | Best Director               | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Moonlight                                         | Best Picture                | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Moonlight                                         | Best Cinematography         | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Moonlight                                         | Best Film Editing           | 09.09 pts (11/1 odds)  |
|        | Moonlight                                         | Best Score                  | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | My Life as a Zucchini                             | Best Animated Feature       | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  34.07 | Nocturnal Animals (Michael Shannon)               | Best Supporting Actor       | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Nocturnal Animals                                 | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Nocturnal Animals                                 | Best Film Editing           | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | Nocturnal Animals                                 | Best Score                  | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Nocturnal Animals                                 | Best Cinematography         | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)                      | Best Director               | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Nocturnal Animals (Jake Gyllenhaal)               | Best Actor                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)                     | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Nocturnal Animals (Amy Adams)                     | Best Actress                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Nocturnal Animals                                 | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      5 | Passengers (Morten Tyldum)                        | Best Director               | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Passengers (Jennifer Lawrence)                    | Best Actress                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Passengers                                        | Best Sound Mixing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Passengers                                        | Best Sound Editing          | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Passengers                                        | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Patriot's Day                                     | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Queen of Katwe (Lupita Nyong'o)                   | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  71.54 | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Visual Effects         | 18.18 pts (11/2 odds)  |
|        | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Sound Mixing           | 18.18 pts (11/2 odds)  |
|        | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Sound Editing          | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|        | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 09.09 pts (11/1 odds)  |
|        | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Score                  | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Rogue One: A Star Wars Story                      | Best Production Design      | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  11.17 | Rules Don't Apply                                 | Best Production Design      | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Rules Don't Apply                                 | Best Costume Design         | 03.03 pts (33/1 odds)  |
|        | Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty)                 | Best Actor                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   3.57 | Sausage Party                                     | Best Animated Feature       | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
| 152.67 | Silence                                           | Best Film Editing           | 18.18 pts (11/2 odds)  |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 18.18 pts (11/2 odds)  |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Costume Design         | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Cinematography         | 16.67 pts (6/1 odds)   |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Production Design      | 15.38 pts (13/2 odds)  |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Score                  | 14.29 pts (7/1 odds)   |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | 11.11 pts (9/1 odds)   |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Sound Mixing           | 10.00 pts (10/1 odds)  |
|        | Silence (Martin Scorsese)                         | Best Director               | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Silence (Liam Neeson)                             | Best Supporting Actor       | 08.33 pts (12/1 odds)  |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Sound Editing          | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Silence                                           | Best Picture                | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Silence (Andrew Garfield)                         | Best Actor                  | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   7.14 | Sing                                              | Best Animated Feature       | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Snowden                                           | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   2.52 | Star Trek Beyond                                  | Best Visual Effects         | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | Star Trek Beyond                                  | Best Sound Mixing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  20.71 | Sully (Tom Hanks)                                 | Best Actor                  | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Film Editing           | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Picture                | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Visual Effects         | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|        | Sully (Clint Eastwood)                            | Best Director               | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Sound Mixing           | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Sound Editing          | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Sully                                             | Best Adapted Screenplay     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | The BFG                                           | Best Visual Effects         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      3 | The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)               | Best Actor                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | The Birth of a Nation (Aja Naomi King)            | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | The Birth of a Nation                             | Best Picture                | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   2.52 | The Founder (Michael Keaton)                      | Best Actor                  | 01.52 pts (66/1 odds)  |
|        | The Founder (Laura Dern)                          | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | The Hollars (Margo Martindale)                    | Best Supporting Actress     | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  57.51 | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Visual Effects         | 30.00 pts (10/3 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Sound Editing          | 07.14 pts (14/1 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Sound Mixing           | 06.25 pts (16/1 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Production Design      | 04.55 pts (22/1 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Score                  | 04.00 pts (25/1 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Film Editing           | 03.57 pts (28/1 odds)  |
|        | The Jungle Book                                   | Best Cinematography         | 02.00 pts (50/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|    2.5 | The Little Prince                                 | Best Animated Feature       | 02.50 pts (40/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | The Lobster                                       | Best Original Screenplay    | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   9.09 | The Red Turtle                                    | Best Animated Feature       | 09.09 pts (11/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|   1.25 | Trolls                                            | Best Animated Feature       | 01.25 pts (80/1 odds)  |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|      1 | Warcraft                                          | Best Visual Effects         | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|
|  55.33 | Zootopia                                          | Best Animated Feature       | 53.33 pts (15/8 odds)  |
|        | Zootopia                                          | Best Original Screenplay    | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|        | Zootopia                                          | Best Score                  | 01.00 pts (100/1 odds) |
|--------|---------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------|

Sort by score

Here’s the list of movies sorted by score and properly formatted as a bulleted list, to make it easier to read.

If this is all too long and verbose, feel free to jump down to the final list.

  • La La Land (504.46 pts)
    • 66.67 pts for Best Sound Mixing (3/2 odds)
    • 58.82 pts for Best Director (Damien Chazelle) (17/10 odds)
    • 55.56 pts for Best Score (9/5 odds)
    • 52.63 pts for Best Production Design (19/10 odds)
    • 52.63 pts for Best Cinematography (19/10 odds)
    • 50.00 pts for Best Film Editing (2/1 odds)
    • 47.62 pts for Best Actress (Emma Stone) (21/10 odds)
    • 35.71 pts for Best Costume Design (14/5 odds)
    • 25.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (4/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts for Best Picture (9/2 odds)
    • 22.22 pts for Best Original Screenplay (9/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Actor (Ryan Gosling) (13/2 odds)
  • Jackie (230.70 pts)
    • 80.00 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (5/4 odds)
    • 36.36 pts for Best Costume Design (11/4 odds)
    • 28.57 pts for Best Actress (Natalie Portman) (7/2 odds)
    • 25.00 pts for Best Score (4/1 odds)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Production Design (6/1 odds)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Film Editing (13/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Cinematography (9/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Original Screenplay (12/1 odds)
    • 06.25 pts for Best Picture (16/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Director (Pablo Larrain) (33/1 odds)
  • Manchester by the Sea (194.60 pts)
    • 50.00 pts for Best Actor (Casey Affleck) (2/1 odds)
    • 50.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (2/1 odds)
    • 30.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Michelle Williams) (10/3 odds)
    • 25.00 pts for Best Director (Kenneth Lonergan) (4/1 odds)
    • 22.22 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Lucas Hedges) (9/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Picture (13/2 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Kyle Chandler) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Fences (165.78 pts)
    • 52.63 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (19/10 odds)
    • 50.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Viola Davis) (2/1 odds)
    • 35.71 pts for Best Actor (Denzel Washington) (14/5 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Picture (9/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Director (Denzel Washington) (12/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Stephen Henderson) (50/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Jovan Adepo) (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actress (Viola Davis) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Mykelti Williamson) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Score (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
  • Silence (152.67 pts)
    • 18.18 pts for Best Film Editing (11/2 odds)
    • 18.18 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (11/2 odds)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Costume Design (6/1 odds)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Cinematography (6/1 odds)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Production Design (13/2 odds)
    • 14.29 pts for Best Score (7/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (9/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (10/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Director (Martin Scorsese) (12/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Liam Neeson) (12/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Picture (14/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Actor (Andrew Garfield) (80/1 odds)
  • Moonlight (139.74 pts)
    • 41.67 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali) (12/5 odds)
    • 28.57 pts for Best Original Screenplay (7/2 odds)
    • 20.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Naomie Harris) (5/1 odds)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Director (Barry Jenkins) (6/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Picture (9/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Cinematography (9/1 odds)
    • 09.09 pts for Best Film Editing (11/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Score (66/1 odds)
  • Hacksaw Ridge (103.18 pts)
    • 57.14 pts for Best Sound Editing (7/4 odds)
    • 25.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (4/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts for Best Film Editing (10/1 odds)
    • 02.50 pts for Best Actor (Andrew Garfield) (40/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (50/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Picture (66/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (66/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Score (80/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Production Design (80/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Director (Mel Gibson) (100/1 odds)
  • Arrival (75.50 pts)
    • 20.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (5/1 odds)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Cinematography (6/1 odds)
    • 10.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (10/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Actress (Amy Adams) (14/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Score (14/1 odds)
    • 05.00 pts for Best Picture (20/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (25/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Film Editing (33/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Director (Denis Villeneuve) (66/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (100/1 odds)
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (71.54 pts)
    • 18.18 pts for Best Visual Effects (11/2 odds)
    • 18.18 pts for Best Sound Mixing (11/2 odds)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Sound Editing (13/2 odds)
    • 09.09 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (11/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Score (14/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Production Design (28/1 odds)
  • The Jungle Book (57.51 pts)
    • 30.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (10/3 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Sound Editing (14/1 odds)
    • 06.25 pts for Best Sound Mixing (16/1 odds)
    • 04.55 pts for Best Production Design (22/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Score (25/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Film Editing (28/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Cinematography (50/1 odds)
  • Zootopia (55.33 pts)
    • 53.33 pts for Best Animated Feature (15/8 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Score (100/1 odds)
  • Lion (51.49 pts)
    • 13.33 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (15/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Nicole Kidman) (9/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Dev Patel) (9/1 odds)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Picture (14/1 odds)
    • 04.55 pts for Best Score (22/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Cinematography (50/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Director (Garth Davis) (80/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
  • Loving (50.73 pts)
    • 16.67 pts for Best Actress (Ruth Negga) (6/1 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Actor (Joel Edgerton) (9/1 odds)
    • 09.09 pts for Best Original Screenplay (11/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Picture (12/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (33/1 odds)
    • 02.50 pts for Best Director (Jeff Nichols) (40/1 odds)
  • Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (49.29 pts)
    • 14.29 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (7/1 odds)
    • 13.33 pts for Best Production Design (15/2 odds)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Visual Effects (9/1 odds)
    • 05.56 pts for Best Costume Design (18/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Film Editing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Doctor Strange (39.33 pts)
    • 33.33 pts for Best Visual Effects (3/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (25/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Nocturnal Animals (34.07 pts)
    • 11.11 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Michael Shannon) (9/1 odds)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (12/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Film Editing (28/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Score (33/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Cinematography (33/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Director (Tom Ford) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actor (Jake Gyllenhaal) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Amy Adams) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actress (Amy Adams) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Hidden Figures (30.43 pts)
    • 06.25 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (16/1 odds)
    • 04.55 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Janelle Monae) (22/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Actress (Taraji P. Henson) (25/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Film Editing (28/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Production Design (33/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Picture (33/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Score (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Director (Theodore Melfi) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Kevin Costner) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Costume Design (100/1 odds)
  • Florence Foster Jenkins (28.11 pts)
    • 12.50 pts for Best Costume Design (8/1 odds)
    • 09.09 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (11/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Actress (Meryl Streep) (50/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Hugh Grant) (50/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Score (66/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Production Design (100/1 odds)
  • 20th Century Women (26.29 pts)
    • 14.29 pts for Best Actress (Annette Bening) (7/1 odds)
    • 05.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Greta Gerwig) (20/1 odds)
    • 05.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (20/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Elle Fanning) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Hell or High Water (23.38 pts)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Jeff Bridges) (13/2 odds)
    • 05.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (20/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Picture (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Ben Foster) (100/1 odds)
  • Sully (20.71 pts)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Actor (Tom Hanks) (14/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Film Editing (25/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Picture (28/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Director (Clint Eastwood) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Kubo and the Two Strings (20.00 pts)
    • 20.00 pts for Best Animated Feature (5/1 odds)
  • Live By Night (18.37 pts)
    • 06.25 pts for Best Costume Design (16/1 odds)
    • 04.55 pts for Best Production Design (22/1 odds)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Cinematography (28/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Score (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Moana (15.38 pts)
    • 15.38 pts for Best Animated Feature (13/2 odds)
  • Deepwater Horizon (13.85 pts)
    • 08.33 pts for Best Sound Editing (12/1 odds)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (25/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Film Editing (66/1 odds)
  • Finding Dory (13.50 pts)
    • 12.50 pts for Best Animated Feature (8/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • A Monster Calls (12.28 pts)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (25/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Felicity Jones) (33/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (50/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Cinematography (80/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Rules Don’t Apply (11.17 pts)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Production Design (14/1 odds)
    • 03.03 pts for Best Costume Design (33/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actor (Warren Beatty) (100/1 odds)
  • The Red Turtle (9.09 pts)
    • 09.09 pts for Best Animated Feature (11/1 odds)
  • Sing (7.14 pts)
    • 07.14 pts for Best Animated Feature (14/1 odds)
  • Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (7.00 pts)
    • 05.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (20/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (50/1 odds)
  • Captain Fantastic (5.50 pts)
    • 02.50 pts for Best Actor (Viggo Mortensen) (40/1 odds)
    • 02.00 pts for Best Costume Design (50/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Passengers (5.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Director (Morten Tyldum) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actress (Jennifer Lawrence) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Editing (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Deadpool (4.57 pts)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Makeup and Hairstyling (28/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (4.25 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Director (Ang Lee) (80/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Kristen Stewart) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Steve Martin) (100/1 odds)
  • Captain America: Civil War (4.00 pts)
    • 04.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (25/1 odds)
  • Allied (3.57 pts)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Costume Design (28/1 odds)
  • Sausage Party (3.57 pts)
    • 03.57 pts for Best Animated Feature (28/1 odds)
  • Hail, Caesar! (3.04 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Production Design (66/1 odds)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Cinematography (66/1 odds)
  • The Birth of a Nation (3.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actor (Nate Parker) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Aja Naomi King) (100/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Love and Friendship (2.77 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Costume Design (66/1 odds)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (80/1 odds)
  • Elle (2.52 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Actress (Isabelle Huppert) (66/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Star Trek Beyond (2.52 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Visual Effects (66/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Sound Mixing (100/1 odds)
  • The Founder (2.52 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Actor (Michael Keaton) (66/1 odds)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Laura Dern) (100/1 odds)
  • Miss Sloane (2.50 pts)
    • 02.50 pts for Best Actress (Jessica Chastain) (40/1 odds)
  • The Little Prince (2.50 pts)
    • 02.50 pts for Best Animated Feature (40/1 odds)
  • Denial (1.52 pts)
    • 01.52 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Timothy Spall) (66/1 odds)
  • Trolls (1.25 pts)
    • 01.25 pts for Best Animated Feature (80/1 odds)
  • Bleed for This (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actor (Aaron Eckhart) (100/1 odds)
  • Cafe Society (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Cinematography (100/1 odds)
  • Gold (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey) (100/1 odds)
  • Miss Hokusai (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • My Life as a Zucchini (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Animated Feature (100/1 odds)
  • Patriot’s Day (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Picture (100/1 odds)
  • Queen of Katwe (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) (100/1 odds)
  • Snowden (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Adapted Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • The BFG (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)
  • The Hollars (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Supporting Actress (Margo Martindale) (100/1 odds)
  • The Lobster (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Original Screenplay (100/1 odds)
  • Warcraft (1.00 pts)
    • 01.00 pts for Best Visual Effects (100/1 odds)

Final list

And finally, here’s our overall list of movies!

Remember, this isn’t the movies most likely to win Best Picture, but rather an aggregated list of movies most likely to score Oscar nominations/wins in ANY category. So some of these movies are “punching above their weight” because they are likely to win more of the technical awards.

All in all, it’s a pretty interesting list. The 1st-ranked movie has more than twice the score of the 2nd-ranked movie. There are 7 movies with 100+ points, 13 movies with 50+ points, and 28 movies with 10+ points. And at the end of the list, 12 lonely movies with just 1 point each.

(The dates are color-coded based on whether the movie was playing in my local theaters. Green means the movie is not out yet, yellow means it’s currently playing, red means it’s out of theatres already. It doesn’t always correspond exactly to the dates listed because those are often when the movie debuted in limited release, not wide release.)

Looks like I have a lot of catching up to do before February!

Num Points Title Release
1. 504.46 pts La La Land 2016-12-16
2. 230.70 pts Jackie 2016-12-09
3. 194.60 pts Manchester by the Sea 2016-12-02
4. 165.78 pts Fences 2016-12-25
5. 152.67 pts Silence 2016-12-23
6. 139.74 pts Moonlight 2016-10-21
7. 103.18 pts Hacksaw Ridge 2016-11-04
8. 75.50 pts Arrival 2016-11-11
9. 71.54 pts Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 2016-12-16
10. 57.51 pts The Jungle Book 2016-04-15
11. 55.33 pts Zootopia 2016-03-04
12. 51.49 pts Lion 2016-11-25
13. 50.73 pts Loving 2016-11-04
14. 49.29 pts Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 2016-11-18
15. 39.33 pts Doctor Strange 2016-11-04
16. 34.07 pts Nocturnal Animals 2016-11-18
17. 30.43 pts Hidden Figures 2017-01-06
18. 28.11 pts Florence Foster Jenkins 2016-08-12
19. 26.29 pts 20th Century Women 2016-12-25
20. 23.38 pts Hell or High Water 2016-08-12
21. 20.71 pts Sully 2016-11-09
22. 20.00 pts Kubo and the Two Strings 2016-08-19
23. 18.37 pts Live By Night 2017-01-13
24. 15.38 pts Moana 2016-11-23
25. 13.85 pts Deepwater Horizon 2016-09-30
26. 13.50 pts Finding Dory 2016-06-17
27. 12.28 pts A Monster Calls 2016-12-23
28. 11.17 pts Rules Don’t Apply 2016-11-23
29. 9.09 pts The Red Turtle 2017-01-20
30. 7.14 pts Sing 2016-12-21
31. 7.00 pts Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children 2016-09-30
32. 5.50 pts Captain Fantastic 2016-07-08
33. 5.00 pts Passengers 2016-12-21
34. 4.57 pts Deadpool 2016-02-12
35. 4.25 pts Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 2016-11-18
36. 4.00 pts Captain America: Civil War 2016-05-06
37. 3.57 pts Sausage Party 2016-08-12
38. 3.57 pts Allied 2016-11-23
39. 3.04 pts Hail, Caesar! 2016-02-05
40. 3.00 pts The Birth of a Nation 2016-10-07
41. 2.77 pts Love and Friendship 2016-05-13
42. 2.52 pts The Founder 2016-12-16
43. 2.52 pts Star Trek Beyond 2016-07-22
44. 2.52 pts Elle 2016-11-11
45. 2.50 pts The Little Prince 2016-08-05
46. 2.50 pts Miss Sloane 2016-12-09
47. 1.52 pts Denial 2016-09-30
48. 1.25 pts Trolls 2016-11-04
49. 1.00 pts Warcraft 2016-06-10
50. 1.00 pts The Lobster 2016-05-13
51. 1.00 pts The Hollars 2016-08-26
52. 1.00 pts The BFG 2016-07-01
53. 1.00 pts Snowden 2016-09-16
54. 1.00 pts Queen of Katwe 2016-09-23
55. 1.00 pts Patriot’s Day 2016-12-21
56. 1.00 pts My Life as a Zucchini 2016-11-11
57. 1.00 pts Miss Hokusai 2016-10-14
58. 1.00 pts Gold 2017-01-27
59. 1.00 pts Cafe Society 2016-07-15
60. 1.00 pts Bleed for This 2016-11-18

  1. It was only after I ran all the numbers that I discovered implied probability. Unfortunately, I used Markdown tables to organize this data and it’s devilishly difficult to re-calculate numbers in that format. And the implied probability calculations would’ve only slighted changed the numbers and almost never the order of rankings. If I was doing this all over again, I would’ve kept all the data in an Excel spreadsheet and only converted it to Markdown tables when I was ready to publish this post, but c’est la vie! ↩︎

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My 2016 Emmy picks Sep 18

The Emmys are tonight! These could very well be a mostly-repeat of last year’s winners because of the big rules changes last year, but nonetheless, I thought I’d take a quick stab at picking some winners. Some are who I think will win, some are for who I think should win, and some are just a chance for me to try to get you to watch some amazing TV shows. Here goes nothing!

Series awards

Outstanding Comedy Series

  • Black-ish (ABC)
  • Master of None (Netflix)
  • Modern Family (ABC)
  • Silicon Valley (HBO)
  • Transparent (Amazon)
  • Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix)
  • Veep (HBO)

With Big Bang Theory thankfully excised from this category as of late, it’s pretty hard to go wrong with almost any of these shows. But as much as I enjoy Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, am moved by Transparent, or laugh at Silicon Valley and Veep, I’ve go to go with the one that hit the trifecta for me: Master of None. Season 1 was really something special and I can’t wait to see if Aziz Ansari can muster up the magic again (thankfully, Netflix is giving him all the time he wants to write it!).

Outstanding Drama Series

  • The Americans (FX)
  • Better Call Saul (AMC)
  • Downton Abbey (PBS)
  • Game of Thrones (HBO)
  • Homeland (Showtime)
  • House of Cards (Netflix)
  • Mr. Robot (USA)

The Americans finally got nominated! The Americans finally got nominated!!

Unfortunately, I don’t think it has a chance in hell of winning. Given that, let’s see what our options are. Downton Abbey, Homeland, and House of Cards are barely a shell of their former selves and really have no business being nominated anymore. That leaves us with Better Call Saul, Game of Thrones, and Mr. Robot. I thought Better Call Saul and Mr Robot both had downturns in season 2 (though Mr Robot is nominated for its first season), while Game of Thrones had a surprisingly great uptick in season 6, the first no longer based on the books. I’m glad, because HBO’s huge voting bloc was probably going to deliver Game of Thrones a repeat win either way, but at least it will be well-deserved this year.

Outstanding Variety Talk Series

  • Comedians in Cars Getting Coffee (Crackle)
  • The Late Late Show with James Corden (CBS)
  • Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC)
  • Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)
  • Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)
  • The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon (NBC)

It hasn’t quite reclaimed the highs of its first season, but John Oliver is still the cream of the crop in late night.

Outstanding Limited Series

  • American Crime (ABC)
  • Fargo (FX)
  • The Night Manager (AMC)
  • The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
  • Roots (History)

I’m so glad the Emmys separated this into its own category because limited series are KILLING it this year. Any of these shows would be worthy winners and I honestly don’t know if I can decide between Fargo and The People vs. OJ Simpson. I will say that as much as I was looking forward to Fargo after its sublime first season (perhaps my favorite season of TV that year), OJ came out of nowhere and I still remember moments from it more now.

Outstanding Television Movie

  • All the Way (HBO)
  • Confirmation (HBO)
  • Luther (BBC America)
  • Sherlock: “The Abominable Bride” (PBS)
  • A Very Murray Christmas (Netflix)

If you don’t think a TV movie about a Supreme Court nominee could be supremely gripping, you haven’t seen Confirmation. Kerry Washington and Wendell Pierce are just sublime and make a character story into a thriller in its own right.

Outstanding Reality-Competition Program

  • The Amazing Race (CBS)
  • American Ninja Warrior (NBC)
  • Dancing with the Stars (ABC)
  • Project Runway (Lifetime)
  • Top Chef (Bravo)
  • The Voice (NBC)

As much fluff as it has, there’s nothing better than the finals of American Ninja Warrior. I just love that there’s an obstacle course show that celebrates athletic excellence, not mock it. (coughWipeoutcough)

Acting awards

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Anthony Anderson as Andre “Dre” Johnson, Sr. on Black-ish (ABC) (Episode: “Hope”)
  • Aziz Ansari as Dev Shah on Master of None (Netflix) (Episode: “Parents”)
  • Will Forte as Phil “Tandy” Miller on The Last Man on Earth (Fox) (Episode: “30 Years of Science Down the Tubes”)
  • William H. Macy as Frank Gallagher on Shameless (Showtime) (Episode: “I Only Miss Her When I’m Breathing”)
  • Thomas Middleditch as Richard Hendricks on Silicon Valley (HBO) (Episode: “The Empty Chair”)
  • Jeffrey Tambor as Maura Pfefferman on Transparent (Amazon) (Episode: “Man on the Land”)

Who are we kidding, Jeffrey Tambor is going to win this. You could argue that dramedies should be their own category to give truly comedic performers a real shot at this award (and I would agree with you), but that just isn’t the reality we have right now.

Ansari and Anderson would be worthy winners, but of course their performances just aren’t showy enough. But I would love to see Middleditch win this one time for an underrated performance as the glue that binds together Silicon Valley.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Ellie Kemper as Kimmy Schmidt on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) (Episode: “Kimmy Goes to a Hotel!”)
  • Julia Louis-Dreyfus as President Selina Meyer on Veep (HBO) (Episode: “Mother”)
  • Laurie Metcalf as Dr. Jenna James on Getting On (HBO) (Episode: “Am I Still Me?”)
  • Tracee Ellis Ross as Dr. Rainbow “Bow” Johnson on Black-ish (ABC) (Episode: “Sink or Swim”)
  • Amy Schumer as Amy on Inside Amy Schumer (Comedy Central) (Episode: “Welcome to the Gun Show”)
  • Lily Tomlin as Frankie Bergstein on Grace and Frankie (Netflix) (Episode: “The Test”)

Julia Louis-Dreyfus is going to (deservingly) win for a record 5th year in a row…but what if she didn’t? Can we just give this award to Laurie Metcalf for her INCREDIBLE guest appearance in the 3rd episode of Horace and Pete after she was snubbed in that category at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards show last weekend? (She lost to Margo Martindale, who appeared in all of one short inconsequential scene during the entire season of The Americans.)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series

  • Kyle Chandler as John Rayburn on Bloodline (Netflix) (Episode: “Part 23”)
  • Rami Malek as Elliot Alderson on Mr. Robot (USA) (Episode: “eps1.0_hellofriend.mov”)
  • Bob Odenkirk as Jimmy McGill on Better Call Saul (AMC) (Episode: “Klick”)
  • Matthew Rhys as Philip Jennings on The Americans (FX) (Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”)
  • Liev Schreiber as Ray Donovan on Ray Donovan (Showtime) (Episode: “Exsuscito”)
  • Kevin Spacey as President Frank Underwood on House of Cards (Netflix) (Episode: “Chapter 52”)

This might be the most wide-open category of the whole show. Bryan Cranston and Jon Hamm are both gone, and though Chandler is a previous winner, Bloodline is no Friday Night Lights (watch Friday Night Lights!).

I’m again going ride-or-die for The Americans, and Matthew Rhys should probably have been nominated and won this awards years ago. That said, The American just isn’t popular enough for him to win this year, so it’s going to come down to Bob Odenkirk and Rami Malek. And as much as Odenkirk has fleshed out the character of Saul, no one’s giving a performance like Rami Malek right now. After seeing multiple actors win this in their last year of eligibility (Chandler for Friday Night Lights, Hamm for Mad Men), let’s see if the rookie can bring it on home this time.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series

  • Claire Danes as Carrie Mathison on Homeland (Showtime) (Episode: “Super Powers”)
  • Viola Davis as Prof. Annalise Keating on How to Get Away with Murder (ABC) (Episode: “There’s My Baby”)
  • Taraji P. Henson as Cookie Lyon on Empire (Fox) (Episode: “Rise by Sin”)
  • Tatiana Maslany as Sarah Manning, Alison Hendrix, Cosima Niehaus, Beth Childs, Rachel Duncan, and MK on Orphan Black (BBC America) (Episode: “The Antisocialism of Sex”)
  • Keri Russell as Elizabeth Jennings on The Americans (FX) (Episode: “The Magic of David Copperfield V: The Statue of Liberty Disappears”)
  • Robin Wright as First Lady Claire Underwood on House of Cards (Netflix) (Episode: “Chapter 49”)

I know The Americans and its actors barely got nominated in some of these categories and they have no real chance of winning any of them, which is why I’ve been picking alternate winners in most of these categories. But Keri Russell is SO good as a committed Russian spy that I just don’t have the heart to pick anyone but her. Seriously Emmy voters, start watching The Americans so they can start winning some awards!!

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Bryan Cranston as President Lyndon B. Johnson on All the Way (HBO)
  • Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes on Sherlock: “The Abominable Bride” (PBS)
  • Idris Elba as DCI John Luther on Luther (BBC America)
  • Cuba Gooding Jr. as O. J. Simpson on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
  • Tom Hiddleston as Jonathan Pine on The Night Manager (AMC)
  • Courtney B. Vance as Johnnie Cochran on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)

Courtney B. Vance didn’t just embody Johnnie Cochran, he WAS Johnnie Cochran. Just thinking about his performance makes me want to watch that show all over again. So damn good.

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Kirsten Dunst as Peggy Blumquist on Fargo (FX)
  • Felicity Huffman as Leslie Graham on American Crime (ABC)
  • Audra McDonald as Billie Holiday on Lady Day at Emerson’s Bar and Grill (HBO)
  • Sarah Paulson as Marcia Clark on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX)
  • Lili Taylor as Anne Blaine on American Crime (ABC)
  • Kerry Washington as Anita Hill on Confirmation (HBO)

I know most experts have this pegged at Sarah Paulson’s award to lose, but does anyone else remember how people went from being bewildered at the casting of Kirsten Dunst to anointing her as the favorite to win this category during Fargo season 2? I do, I do!

That said, even I was surprised to see Sarah Paulson has been repeatedly nominated in this category the last few years, but never won. I can’t wait to see her acceptance speech tonight.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

  • Louie Anderson as Christine Baskets on Baskets (FX) (Episode: “Easter in Bakersfield”)
  • Andre Braugher as Captain Ray Holt on Brooklyn Nine-Nine (Fox) (Episode: “The Oolong Slayer”)
  • Tituss Burgess as Titus Andromedon on Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix) (Episode: “Kimmy Gives Up!”)
  • Ty Burrell as Phil Dunphy on Modern Family (ABC) (Episode: “The Party”)
  • Tony Hale as Gary Walsh on Veep (HBO) (Episode: “Inauguration”)
  • Keegan-Michael Key as Various Characters on Key & Peele (Comedy Central) (Episode: “Y’all Ready for This?”)
  • Matt Walsh as Mike McLintock on Veep (HBO) (Episode: “Kissing Your Sister”)

Mike McLintock might be the most woebegone character on Veep, and if you’ve seen the cast of caricatures on that show, you know that’s saying something. Burrell and Hale have gotten their gold in this category before, it’s time for some new blood.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

  • Anna Chlumsky as Amy Brookheimer on Veep (HBO) (Episode: “C**tgate”)
  • Gaby Hoffmann as Alexandria “Ali” Pfefferman on Transparent (Amazon) (Episode: “Bulnerable”)
  • Allison Janney as Bonnie Plunkett on Mom (CBS) (Episode: “Terrorists and Gingerbread”)
  • Judith Light as Shelly Pfefferman on Transparent (Amazon) (Episode: “Flicky-Flicky Thump-Thump”)
  • Kate McKinnon as Various Characters on Saturday Night Live (NBC) (Episode: “Host: Ariana Grande”)
  • Niecy Nash as Denise “DiDi” Ortley on Getting On (HBO) (Episode: “Don’t Let It Get in You or on You”)

I don’t know if variety show actors have real shots at the acting awards anymore, but for my money, Kate McKinnon is the heart of Saturday Night Live these days and I’d love to see her win this, even as much as I like all of the other nominees on their shows.

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

  • Jonathan Banks as Mike Ehrmantraut on Better Call Saul (AMC) (Episode: “Bali Ha’i”)
  • Peter Dinklage as Tyrion Lannister on Game of Thrones (HBO) (Episode: “No One”)
  • Kit Harington as Jon Snow on Game of Thrones (HBO) (Episode: “Battle of the Bastards”)
  • Michael Kelly as Doug Stamper on House of Cards (Netflix) (Episode: “Chapter 44”)
  • Ben Mendelsohn as Danny Rayburn on Bloodline (Netflix) (Episode: “Part 23”)
  • Jon Voight as Mickey Donovan on Ray Donovan (Showtime) (Episode: “The Kalamazoo”)

He might not have had a showpiece episode like last year, but Jonathan Banks is overdue for this award. He was robbed during season 5 of Breaking Bad when he lost to co-star Aaron Paul, but I think this will finally be his year.

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

  • Emilia Clarke as Daenerys Targaryen on Game of Thrones (HBO) (Episode: “Book of the Stranger”)
  • Lena Headey as Cersei Lannister on Game of Thrones (HBO) (Episode: “The Winds of Winter”)
  • Dame Maggie Smith as Violet Crawley, Dowager Countess of Grantham on Downton Abbey (PBS) (Episode: “Episode Six”)
  • Maura Tierney as Helen Solloway on The Affair (Showtime) (Episode: “204”)
  • Maisie Williams as Arya Stark on Game of Thrones (HBO) (Episode: “No One”)
  • Constance Zimmer as Quinn King on UnREAL (Lifetime) (Episode: “Mother”)

Lena Headey had so many great showcase moments during this season of Game of Thrones (no spoilers, but if you’ve seen the episode she’s nominated for, you know what I’m talking about) and she would be a worthy winner indeed.

But can we take a moment to appreciate the greatness that is UnREAL season 1 and especially Constance Zimmer?! This is a show that had no business being so good (and in season 2, it sadly wasn’t), but my god Constance Zimmer is putting on a showcase week after week. Whoo boy, she has come a long way since Good Morning, Miami!

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Sterling K. Brown as Christopher Darden on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX) (Episode: “Manna From Heaven”)
  • Hugh Laurie as Richard Onslow Roper on The Night Manager (AMC) (Episode: “Episode 5”)
  • Jesse Plemons as Ed Blumquist on Fargo (FX) (Episode: “Loplop”)
  • David Schwimmer as Robert Kardashian on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX) (Episode: “Conspiracy Theories”)
  • John Travolta as Robert Shapiro on The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (FX) (Episode: “100% Not Guilty”)
  • Bokeem Woodbine as Mike Milligan on Fargo (FX) (Episode: “Palindrome”)

This is supposed to be OJ’s year at the Emmys, but I really hope its rising tide doesn’t life all of its boats because both of the Fargo actors nominated here were just so good. I know Bokeem Woodbine was the breakout star of Fargo, but of the two, I’ve got to give this to the ever-exasperated Jesse Plemons, who just kept delivering week after week.

(Though if David Schwimmer wins this, I won’t be mad at all - I never thought I could like a Kardashian so much!).

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or Movie

  • Kathy Bates as Iris on American Horror Story: Hotel (FX) (Episode: “Battle Royale”)
  • Olivia Colman as Angela Burr on The Night Manager (AMC) (Episode: “Episode 6”)
  • Regina King as Terri LaCroix on American Crime (ABC) (Episode: “Season Two: Episode Eight”)
  • Melissa Leo as First Lady Lady Bird Johnson on All the Way (HBO)
  • Sarah Paulson as Sally McKenna on American Horror Story: Hotel (FX) (Episode: “The Ten Commandments Killer”)
  • Jean Smart as Floyd Gerhardt on Fargo (FX) (Episode: “Fear and Trembling”)

The best part of the so-called Golden Age of TV and now Peak TV is that amazing actors like Jean Smart finally get to play roles that TV would never had room for before. She’s. Just. So. Good.

Writing awards

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series

  • Catastrophe (Episode: “Episode 1”), Written by Rob Delaney and Sharon Horgan (Amazon)
  • Master of None (Episode: “Parents”), Written by Aziz Ansari and Alan Yang (Netflix)
  • Silicon Valley (Episode: “Founder Friendly”), Written by Dan O’Keefe (HBO)
  • Silicon Valley (Episode: “The Uptick”), Written by Alec Berg (HBO)
  • Veep (Episode: “Morning After”), Written by David Mandel (HBO)
  • Veep (Episode: “Mother”), Written by Alex Gregory and Peter Huyck (HBO)

During Modern Family’s reign atop the main comedy series category (especially in its later not-so-deserving years), people would say that the winner in this category was the “real” best comedy series. Now that the former category’s nominees are so diverse and good, I don’t know that that applies anymore. I would happy with any of these to win on their writing merits alone, but I’m going to go with Master of None here and particularly its terrific nominated episode.

Outstanding Writing for a Drama Series

  • The Americans (Episode: “Persona Non Grata”), Written by Joel Fields and Joe Weisberg (FX)
  • Downton Abbey (Episode: “Episode 8”), Written by Julian Fellowes (PBS)
  • Game of Thrones (Episode: “Battle of the Bastards”), Written by David Benioff and D. B. Weiss (HBO)
  • The Good Wife (Episode: “End”), Written by Robert King and Michelle King (CBS)
  • Mr. Robot (Episode: “eps1.0_hellofriend.mov”), Written by Sam Esmail (USA)
  • UnREAL (Episode: “Return”), Written by Marti Noxon and Sarah Gertrude Shapiro (Lifetime)

The particular episode of Game of Thrones nominated here isn’t exactly known for its writing, and Downton Abbey is Downton Abbey, but the rest of the nominees here are great. I love them all, but I’d give this to Mr Robot, whose pilot had no business at all working and yet completely did. Bravo and bonsoir, Mr. Esmail.

Outstanding Writing for a Limited Series, Movie, or Dramatic Special

  • Fargo (Episode: “Loplop”), Written by Bob DeLaurentis (FX)
  • Fargo (Episode: “Palindrome”), Written by Noah Hawley (FX)
  • The Night Manager, Written by David Farr (AMC)
  • The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (Episode: “From the Ashes of Tragedy”), Written by Scott Alexander and Larry Karaszewski (FX)
  • The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (Episode: “Marcia, Marcia, Marcia”), Written by D. V. DeVincentis (FX)
  • The People v. O. J. Simpson: American Crime Story (Episode: “The Race Card”), Written by Joe Robert Cole (FX)

I just can’t do it, I just can’t. Give Fargo AND The People vs OJ all the awards!

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What I want in iOS 10 + the next tvOS Jun 13

Another year, another iOS wishlist! I try to come up with new ideas every year, so if you haven’t seen the previous years’ lists, you can read those first (iOS 6, iOS 7, iOS 8, iOS 9).

Last year, we knew ahead of time that it would be a “Snow Leopard” year, focused on refinements and optimizations. This year, there have been very few leaks out of Cupertino, so no one really knows what’s going to be announced at WWDC. For example, the invite and banners seem to hint at an official dark mode, but there’s no concrete evidence. In fact, the biggest thing we know that’s coming are changes to the App Store…which Apple themselves surprisingly announced a few days ago.

Given that, anything could be in the cards this year. I don’t know what to expect, but I took a stab at some realistic tweaks and changes that I hope will be announced this year.

iOS 10

Picture-in-Picture: more, give me more!

Picture-in-Picture video on the iPad was probably the biggest surprise of last year’s WWDC. It was a feature that no one saw coming,1 but totally changes how you use your devices. Now, with a year of use, it’s clear Apple’s current implementation is good, but can be so much better with a few easy tweaks.

First and most importantly, please add a “skip back 10 seconds button”! It’s incredibly frustrating having to switch apps entirely every time you just miss a line of dialogue.

Second, let me make the PIP window bigger. Way bigger. When something interesting happens in a video and you want to focus on it for a second, it’d be a lot easier to just pinch and make it bigger, rather than switch back to the original video app (even on the latest iPad Mini, it takes more than a few seconds to switch apps and modes).

Third, playlists! If you want to watch YouTube videos in a PIP window (using YouPlayer, since the official YouTube app still doesn’t support PIP), it gets tedious switching back and starting a new one every time. Let me start a playlist and just keep it going in the PIP window without further user interaction.

Fourth, it would be great if there was a way to click on a YouTube link and have it open directly in PIP so you don’t have to jump between apps every time.

Lastly, picture-in-picture on iPhone please! Fully split-screen apps are probably too difficult on such a relatively small screen, but it would be great to be able to pop out a video and watch it even as you do other things. There’s no reason to limit this feature to iPads only.

FaceTime extensions: screen sharing, multi-person video calls

FaceTime has been pretty great from the start, but it’s time to flesh out its features. Why can’t I share my screen with the other person? It would make it so much easier to do tech support if you could actually see what the other person is seeing on their screen.

Better yet, let people remotely “control” the other device. Amazon added a really cool feature called Mayday to their tablet line a few years ago – you press a button and get connected to a tech support agent within 15 seconds who can see your screen, draw on it, and generally help you fix any problems. Apple would never invest in a central support team like that, but why not at least add a feature so we can help family and friends in a similar way?

One more FaceTime feature sorely missing is multi-person calls. Google Hangouts has it, Skype has it, it’s time for Apple to reach feature parity. It would be great to be able to get the whole family on a single video chat!

Siri on steroids: an SDK, real hands-free mode

Apple was first out of the gate with a voice assistant, but nowadays it feels like they’ve been lapped by everyone else. Google’s voice assistant has powerful context and AI support, Microsoft’s voice assistant works across all of their devices (from Surface to Windows to Xbox), and Amazon’s voice assistant has an app store. And Apple still can’t get basic word recognition right?

First off, let’s get a Siri SDK. It’s time. The Amazon Echo has proven that voice assistants can work easily with 3rd-party apps. Most tasks require precisely-worded commands (you definitely feel like you’re talking to a computer, not a person), but at least it works with 3rd-party services. The Alexa Skills Kit is both powerful and approachable, which is why they’ve won the hearts of developers and, therefore, users. Combined with hands-free Siri (“Hey Siri…”), an iPhone with a Siri SDK would basically be an Amazon Echo Dot.

And speaking of hands-free mode, that term is a bit of a misnomer. Sure, you can control some basic functions without touching your phone, but you can’t really use your phone with just your voice. I want to be able to sit in my car, secure my phone in a dash mount, and then never have to touch it again until I get out of my car. Right now, I all-too-frequently have to still touch the screen to press OK or cancel, select a text field, or even just exit the Siri screen (which inexplicably stays up after every command). And if you think this feature simply isn’t possible yet, guess what…Google just released it on Android!

Reinvigorated App Store: paid upgrades, app playlists

Apple’s decision to put Phil Schiller in charge of the App Store is already paying dividends. App subscriptions with better revenue splits for developers, search ads, and faster app review times are hopefully just the beginning of a reinvigorated App Store.

First off, if Apple’s going to add search ads, they better really improve app search in general. For example, I was recently searching for Google Analytics apps. I had to go more than 100 results deep to find actual 3rd-party G clients, not just completely unrelated apps that blithely mention in their keywords or whatever. Google succeeded tremendously with search ads, yes, but that was only because their actual search tech was impeccable in the first place.

Next, subscriptions are nice, but I’d rather have paid upgrades and free trials. With paid upgrades (AKA the way software sales have always worked outside of closed app stores), incentives are aligned for both parties: users get to decide whether an upgrade is worth paying for (along with a discount for being an existing customer), and developers can earn more revenue from existing customers, not just new ones. Studies show that most people spend 80+% of their time in 3 apps (and most of those are social networks). If your app isn’t one of those, how many people are going to feel comfortable paying for it monthly?

(Sketch is doing an interesting experiment, where they’re switching to rolling updates and a purchase gets you 12 months of updates. When your “subscription” expires, you get to keep the version of the app you have, you just don’t get new feature upgrades. I wonder if Apple will support that use case?)

Lastly, one really cool feature I don’t see mentioned much but that I’d love to see are App Store “playlists.” Basically, a way for everyone to make lists of apps and share them. For example, I could create a list of my “archived” games I had to delete from my phone to make space. But more importantly, I’d love to see other users’ playlists. I want to be able to check out Andy Baio’s list of favorite games or Brett Terpstra’s list of text editors. Better yet, I want to be able to follow their playlists, so I could get a notification when they add something new to it.

I just want to find and buy more cool indie apps. Why won’t you make it easier, Apple?

Safari subtleties: why do you pain me so?

Safari is a pretty great mobile browser (I have to say that since it’s the only one Apple lets us use as default!). It would just be better with a few tiny tweaks…

For one, please actually show the number of tabs open again in the bottom right, like pre-iOS 7. As I noted last year, Safari silently overwrites your oldest tab when you try opening a tab after hitting the limit. I read tons of links, so I have to keep manually counting how many tabs I have open to make sure I don’t lose any.

Next, it would be great if we could swipe on autocompleted search queries to put them in the search bar, so you can still add more terms after it. For example, if I type “iOS Saf”, autocomplete will give me “iOS Safari”. But if my full query is “iOS Safari search bar”, I have to type it all manually even though part of it was in the autocomplete results.

Lastly, the embeddable Safari View Controller introduced in iOS 9 is fantastic. App developers don’t have to build a new browser interface and users get a consistent browser in every app. The only catch is that it HAS to be full-screen. So an app like Narwhal, a Reddit client that splits the screen with a browser on top and comments below, can’t use SVC. Just make it a little more flexible so every app can use SVC.

And a few more small tweaks

When you’re in one app and click a link that opens another app, Apple puts a Back button in the top left corner of the screen. EXCEPT when you open Safari from Safari View Controller in an app. It almost makes me want a full-fledged system-wide back button, like on Android.

When I turn my phone sideways (for playing games or watching videos), I always turn it right or so that the home button is under my left thumb. But when rotation lock is on and I open an app that only works horizontally, it usually orients the opposite direction…but, even more frustratingly, not always!. Just let us set an option for our preferred horizontal orientation so it’s consistent among all apps.

On a Mac, a different Wi-Fi icon shows up when you’re connected to Wi-Fi, but not the Internet (so you know the problem is outside your home network.) It would be great to get something similar on iOS.

I don’t think the Clock app has seen any meaningful updates since the original iPhone’s debut. Most notably, the alarm settings could really use a jumpstart. How about a way to auto-delete alarms that only run once? And maybe let us schedule an alarm more than a week in advance?

You can now take incoming phone calls on an iPad. Great! But if you’re watching a video (particularly something live, like sports), the incoming call takes over the whole screen and stops the video. Not great, Bob! Just make incoming calls show up as notification banners, not fullscreen modals (if not on iPhones, certainly on iPads).

Let people store their music in iCloud, just like Photos (assuming they bought enough space). Don’t require iTunes Match for this.

No more mystery space (shows up as “Other” in iTunes). If there’s data that doesn’t fit in any main category, stick it all in iCloud Drive. Especially attachments (photos, etc) from Messages. And most importantly, make it easy to clear this space out.

And a few very good requests from other folks: Make Control Center more customizable. Make installing and using 3rd-party keyboards better. Display the volume in the status bar, not in the middle of the screen. If you won’t let us replace them, improve the default apps. And absolutely check out Federico Viticci’s massive wish list and concept video(!).

tvOS

Last year, we finally got the App Store-enabled Apple TV. I was bummed it wasn’t announced at WWDC, but luckily it debuted just a few months later. At the time, the possibilities were endless. Finally, we’d get a plethora of amazing apps from all kinds of developers! Unfortunately, the reality hasn’t been quite that. I can’t think of a single notable Apple TV app that has come out after the box’s debut. In fact, I can’t even remember the last time I checked the Apple TV’s App Store. Don’t get me wrong, I use mine all the time, just only for a couple of apps. However, I think Apple could help jumpstart interest and sales of the Apple TV with a few changes.

For one, let us install apps remotely from an iPhone/iPad or, better yet, from the web (…just like Android). The last thing I do when I plop in front of my TV after a long day is look through the App Store with my remote.

Next, universal search was a good idea, but it looks like Apple themselves have to add search integration for apps. This is the old Apple TV’s “apps” situation all over again. Create an API, open it up to all developers (like Plex!), and just let every app create a content manifest that the system crawls.

Another feature that could sorely use Apple’s focus is TV Everywhere. This is the TV industry’s term for letting you use your cable login to access every channel’s app. Which is great, except every app wants you to login all over again. Why not just add a TV Everywhere setting and then just let every app use those credentials automatically?

Lastly, the latest rumor says Apple is going to make the Apple TV into more of an Amazon Echo competitor, which sounds…nonsensical. Why would I want a microphone in a box I stash under my TV? In years past, the rumor was that Apple would add AirPort features to the Apple TV so it could double as a router…at least that made a little sense.

macOS & watchOS

I’d say more about these, but it feels like Apple doesn’t care about the Mac much these days (the Mac App Store has been sorely neglected for years). And, well, does anyone still care about the Apple Watch? ¯_(ツ)_/¯

  1. Fun fact: I was actually going to lead my list last year with Picture-in-Picture, my most-wanted feature, but I didn’t think there was any chance Apple would actually add it. That was a pleasant surprise, indeed! ↩︎

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My top movies of 2015 + Oscar picks Feb 28

For the first time ever, I actually watched almost all of the movies nominated for an Oscar. Before the award ceremony, I thought I would write a little bit about each one (and a few movies not nominated) to encourage you to watch the best of them. Plus, my Oscar picks at the bottom!

My favorite films

Here are some of my favorite movies from this year. I included just about every Oscar movie—because, duh, they’re almost all really good—along with some other movies that you may have missed this year.

The best of the best

Each one of these movies just knocked me out or took my breath away. I couldn’t wait to watch each of them again. These are the movies I make other people watch because I love them so much:

  • Brooklyn: An immigrant story, told exquisitely. Saoirse Ronan takes a tired trope of a character and imbues it with so much life and emotion. At the beginning of the movie, I was wondering why she was nominated for an Oscar. At the end, I can barely imagine her not winning.
  • Carol: A not-quite-love story between Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara. This movie just absolutely wrecked me. I was fixed to my seat the entire time and bawling in the corner afterwards. (10 movies were nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards. 8 of those were similarly nominated at the Oscars. This one wasn’t. Ridiculous.)
  • Creed: It’s hard to have a fresh take on the boxing genre (especially after the Rocky movies exhausted most of them), so what Ryan Coogler and Michael B. Jordan do here is nothing short of sensational. Heck, this movie is so good that Sylvester Stallone got nominated for an Oscar. (If you liked this, definitely watch Coogler + Jordan’s last team-up, Fruitvale Station.)
  • Mad Max: Fury Road: I usually HATE action movies like this. So it says something when this was my favorite movie of the year. The day after I saw it in theaters, I went back to watch it again. Yes, it’s really that good!
  • Room: The story of a young woman kidnapped and locked in a small room and a child who’s never known anything else. Jacob Tremblay has the best acting performance of the year. Yes, better than Leo. I said it.
  • Sicario: WOW WOW WOW. I would’ve never watched this movie about the drug war if I hadn’t heard about it on the Hollywood Prospectus podcast, and boy am I glad I did. Just incredible tension and cinematography all-around. You probably missed this movie because it wasn’t nominated for any of the major Oscar awards, but did you know it was nominated for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards? Please, watch this movie when it pops up on Netflix or HBO.

The rest of the best

Here’s the movies that I thought were simply terrific. Just because these movies aren’t in the above group doesn’t mean I didn’t love them (that’s what happens when you’re making a best-of list!).

  • Ex Machina: Like Snowpiercer last year, this movie had an unconventional release (available on VOD before it hit theaters) and became an Internet cult favorite. It’s the first movie I’ve seen involving a Turing test and it handles it with aplomb. Definitely watch this if you wish Hollywood had more original stories because it’s just so very good. (Also, Alicia Vikander, who will probably win an Oscar tonight for her part in The Danish Girl, plays one of the leads in this as a humanoid robot unlike any you’ve ever seen.)
  • Spotlight: If you liked All The President’s Men, you have to watch this movie too. There’s a reason it was pegged as the favorite for Best Picture all the way back last October.
  • Steve Jobs: Once you realize that this isn’t really the story of Steve Jobs at all (Aaron Sorkin takes one too many liberties in making his life story more efficiently dramatic), you can appreciate just how good this one is. It’s a shame that Danny Boyle didn’t get more credit for his direction on this one.
  • Straight Outta Compton: Stories about black characters aren’t only for black audiences, and I can’t tell you how happy I was when this movie made so much money at the box office. I only wish Dr. Dre and Ice Cube, who produced the film, had the courage to show the worst of their own characters too (look up Dee Barnes).
  • The Big Short: The best, simplest explanation of what happened in the ‘08 financial crisis. I’ve read about this stuff, watched documentaries, etc, and even I came away with a better understanding after watching this one.
  • The Danish Girl: I understand the criticism of this movie (it simplifies the story too much, Redmayne is too overtly acting), but I don’t care. It just bowled me over, over and over again. Alicia Vikander plays Gerda Wegener with more agency than almost any “tortured wife” character I’ve seen and Eddie Redmayne imbues Lili Elbe with so much life that you feel every emotion along with him. Give this all the awards and I wouldn’t even be mad.
  • The Martian: It’s not often you get a movie that celebrates science so openly and exuberantly. It’s even rarer when that movie is really freakin’ fun, too. I only wish it were longer!
  • Trumbo: This movie has been rightfully knocked as one of the weaker films of this year’s nominees, but if you’re at all interested in the history of Hollywood writers, it’s a compelling watch indeed. (Helen Mirren steals the show with a couple of stellar lines at just the right times, too!)

Lest we zest too much

  • 45 Years: A movie I admired more than I liked. It’s a slow meditation on marriage and memory…if you liked the Top of the Lake miniseries on SundanceTV a couple years ago, you’ll like this.
  • Bridge of Spies: Mark Rylance is exceptional as a captured Russian spy, but overall this was a bit too by-the-numbers for me. (This is the movie that made me realize just why Harvey Weinstein forces every director to chop 20 minutes off their films no matter what.)
  • Concussion: It’s not good when the real person is much more magnetic on-screen than the actor playing him. Skip Will Smith’s version and check out the real Bennett Omalu in Frontline’s NFL investigation, League of Denial, instead. You can watch the whole thing for free on PBS’s website.
  • Inside Out: I thought this movie was just OK. Everyone else loves it though. Maybe, like Andy Ihnatko & The Avengers, it just wasn’t my day when I watched it.
  • Joy: This is one of the two movies I missed in theaters. Still not out on home video either.
  • The Hateful Eight: I missed the 70mm run of this movie, so I looked for it at my regular theater instead. For some reason, they dropped it after only 2 weeks, before I could watch it. Still waiting for the home video release.
  • The Revenant: I love man-vs-nature and revenge stories, but it’s not a good sign when you’re checking your watch more than once during a movie (admittedly, it’s also just really long). On a technical level, Iñárritu’s direction and Leo’s acting are tremendous, but this movie just left me a little cold.

The best of the rest

The Oscars aren’t the be-all, end-all of good movies, and this year was no exception. Here are some other under-the-radar movies I really liked this year:

  • Chappie: After the heights of District 9 and the lows of Elysium, I personally thought Neil Blomkamp bounced back with this one. The story is weak, especially towards the end, but the main character is just so fun to watch.
  • Dope: I loved this movie so much. It subverts and challenges your perceptions and stereotypes and it does it with so much bombast and pure fun. Pair it with last year’s Dear White People for a great doubleheader. (Or, for a trifecta of amazing movies with underserved minority roles, add Beyond the Lights too!)
  • Everest: I knew little about the 1996 Everest expedition before this movie and, wow, was it a gripping surprise. I’ll definitely be checking out Baltasar Kormákur’s next movie.
  • Focus: Miles better than anything else Will Smith’s done in recent years and it’s so much fun watching him as a con man.
  • Mississippi Grind: I’m a sucker for a good movie about gamblers, but this wasn’t at all what I was expecting, in a good way. If you like introspective, slow, but gripping dramas, check this one out.
  • Sanjay’s Super Team: Seeing someone who looks like you on screen is a powerful thing and Disney/Pixar’s animated short with Indian leads was a wonderful little treat indeed.
  • The Walk: This movie about wire-walking made me so damn happy. It’s a French romance film, a light-hearted comedy, a heist film, and performance art all in one. I love showing this one to people.
  • Trainwreck: I knew Amy Schumer was good, but I didn’t know she had this in her. It takes from the best of the Apatow-Rogen school of comedies, but Amy Schumer comes in and reinvigorates the genre so damn well.

Oscar picks

I went through the main 8 categories (overall, directing, acting, screenplay) and picked my favorites in each. If you just want to see what will actually win, you can check FiveThirtyEight, which has been tracking the precursor awards and has a good set of final predictions.

Best Picture

  • The Big Short
  • Bridge of Spies
  • Brooklyn
  • Mad Max: Fury Road
  • The Martian
  • The Revenant
  • Room
  • Spotlight

Look, all of these movies are good. The Revenant and Bridge of Spies are technically excellent, even if I found them underwhelming. I liked The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Spotlight a lot, but I don’t think they were the best movie of the year. So that leaves Room and Mad Max: Fury Road (unfortunately, Sicario and Carol weren’t nominated, as they were at the Critics Choice Awards in the same category). You can’t go wrong with either, but in the end, I’ve got to go with my heart (and a can of silver spray paint)…Mad Max: Fury Road!

Best Director

  • Room - Lenny Abrahamson
  • The Revenant - Alejandro G. Iñárritu
  • Spotlight - Tom McCarthy
  • The Big Short - Adam McKay
  • Mad Max: Fury Road - George Miller

All of these directors did great in different ways, but I think Lenny Abrahamson did more with less than anyone else nominated. Room could have gone wrong in so many ways, but he brings out simply tremendous performances in Brie Larson and Jacob Tremblay. Gotta give it to him.

Best Actor

  • Trumbo - Bryan Cranston
  • The Martian - Matt Damon
  • The Revenant - Leonardo DiCaprio
  • Steve Jobs - Michael Fassbender
  • The Danish Girl - Eddie Redmayne

I know Leo’s going to win. And The Revenant was almost certainly the hardest film to actually make for an actor, but that shouldn’t be enough to get you this award. So even though he won last year, I just felt so much more from Eddie Redmayne’s performance.

Best Actress

  • Carol - Cate Blanchett
  • Room - Brie Larson
  • Joy - Jennifer Lawrence
  • 45 Years - Charlotte Rampling
  • Brooklyn - Saoirse Ronan

Saoirse Ronan blew me away in Brooklyn. Watch the ending and then go back to the beginning and it doesn’t even feel like the same person. But after watching Carol, and seeing Cate Blanchett do more with a cold stare than almost any actor alive, there was just no question in my mind.

Best Supporting Actor

  • The Big Short - Christian Bale
  • The Revenant - Tom Hardy
  • Spotlight - Mark Ruffalo
  • Bridge of Spies - Mark Rylance
  • Creed - Sylvester Stallone

I’d probably rank Tom Hardy higher if I could understand half of the things he said in The Revenant (I’m not the only one who’s going to have to watch the movie again on DVD with subtitles, right?). And Mark Rylance was just sublime. But Mark Ruffalo embodied his character, even if it wasn’t the flashiest role. His rage was mine and I say this award should go to him.

Best Supporting Actress

  • The Hateful Eight - Jennifer Jason Leigh
  • Carol - Rooney Mara
  • Spotlight - Rachel McAdams
  • The Danish Girl - Alicia Vikander
  • Steve Jobs - Kate Winslet

Kate Winslet is always good, but I think she won the Golden Globe in this category more on name recognition from past performances. And Rooney Mara was just spectacular in Carol and has a strong claim to this award. But, for me, ultimately Alicia Vikander takes this. (Everyone, go watch The Danish Girl!)

Best Original Screenplay

  • Bridge of Spies
  • Ex Machina
  • Inside Out
  • Spotlight
  • Straight Outta Compton

At the Emmys, many consider the writing awards the “real” best show awards. I’m not going to say the same for the Oscars, but this category does award more originality and creativity than the main categories and these movies had that in spades. Ultimately, all I have to say is this: yes, Ex Machina is THAT good.

Best Adapted Screenplay

  • The Big Short
  • Brooklyn
  • Carol
  • The Martian
  • Room

It was a shock that both Sorkin and Tarantino weren’t nominated for best screenplay. That’s gotta be a first for both, right? That said, this is a wonderful category and possibly the hardest for me to pick from. So I’ve got to go with the one that had the most challenging source material and adapted it wonderfully for mass audiences: The Big Short.

By the way, if you’re curious, there are 57 different movies nominated for Oscars this year. Here’s how they break down:

  • 8 best picture nominees
  • 8 other movies nominated for acting
  • 3 other movies nominated for screenplay
  • 5 other movies nominated for original song
  • 4 other movies nominated for technical awards (Sicario for sound/cinematography, Cinderella for costume design, The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared for makeup & hair styling, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens for cinematography/sound/editing)
  • 29 documentaries/shorts/animated/foreign language (not including Inside Out, which was also nominated for screenplay)

I thought I watched a lot of them this year (almost everything nominated for overall/acting/screenplay) but I admire anyone, like Todd VanDerWerff, who watched and ranked all 57!

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Why statheads think Trump will actually win the nomination now Feb 28

Last week, after Donald Trump won the South Carolina Republican primary, I got into a heated argument with someone. He said he thought Trump would win the nomination and I vehemently disagreed. I read election news religiously, I majored in this stuff in college, I watch every new poll and development. Simply put, I argued the evidence wasn’t there for Trump to keep winning.

Well, I was wrong.

Everything changed on February 23rd. Yes, that’s when Trump won in Nevada. But it’s the way he won that has every politico & pundit scrambling to understand the monster they’ve unleashed.

Here’s why all the evidence says Trump is now the heavy favorite to actually win the nomination:

The case AGAINST Trump before 2/23

When Trump announced he was running last summer, everyone laughed. Remember his ‘Mexicans are rapists and drug-dealers’ comment? That was in his announcement speech!

But even when he started getting traction and polled around 20%, it could be explained away:

  • Early polls are notoriously bad because they usually represent awareness of a candidate more than support. A year ago, how many people had heard of Bernie Sanders? Similarly, if you were being polled and were asked about a bunch of unknown Republicans and Donald Trump, you might just go with the name you’ve heard of before.

  • Only half of the US population votes. And half of those vote Republican. So polls of “likely GOP voters” represent about 25% of the population. That means when Trump was polling at 20% nationwide, it represented 5% of the US population. And when you remember that 20% of the US population still believes Obama is a Muslim (really), Trump’s poll numbers don’t seem entirely crazy.

  • Trump’s favorability numbers were awful. They suggested a natural ceiling for his support.

  • Trump kept making controversial comments (Mexicans are rapists, McCain isn’t a war hero, ending birthright citizenship, banning all Muslims, lying about 9/11 celebrations, mocking a disabled reporter, Megyn Kelly’s menstrual cycle, and so much more). At some point, something had to stick, right?

  • The entire party was against him. At the first debate, even the Fox News moderators tried to undermine him. And if nothing else, “The Party Decides” theory offered a viable argument for his downfall once the candidate pool winnowed.

In other words, Trump’s popularity was unexpected, but there was evidence to suggest it was limited. And when it came time for people to actually vote, he’d lose.

And at first, that happened. In Iowa, he underperformed compared to his polls and lost to Ted Cruz. Surely his reign was ended?

Except Trump bounced back. He got 1st in New Hampshire and 1st in South Carolina. But still, it could be explained away:

  • He was winning with pluralities, not majorities. He’d hit his natural ceiling of ~35% and would start losing as support consolidated behind 1 or 2 other candidates.

  • He continued to underperform compared to the most recent polls.

  • Generally, 50% of people decide who they’re supporting the last week before a primary vote. Of that group, folks were voting for anyone but Trump (he was only getting 18% of late-deciders, again significantly worse than his polls).

The case FOR Trump after 2/23

But in Nevada, Trump confounded every expectation and turned the conventional wisdom upside-down:

  • He actually overperformed against the polls. He was polling around 40%, but got 46% of the votes. And before you say that was because Jeb dropped out, note that Jeb was only polling at 1%(!).
  • Won in a low-turnout state. Before Nevada, it could be argued Trump was only winning in high-turnout states (by bringing in new voters). But Nevada had a decidedly low turnout and he still won.
  • Won in a caucus state. Caucuses have significantly lower turnout than primaries and generally bring out very committed partisans. In this election, that’s Cruz’s base. But Trump won nonetheless.
  • Won with Hispanic voters. Yes, the sourcing on this is thin, and Trump is still heavily underwater among Latino voters nationwide (80% unfavorable, at last check). However, the race right now is still being won in the media and this story got a lot of traction.
  • Won with evangelical voters. Trump got 4 in 10 Evangelical voters. Again, this was supposed to be Ted Cruz’s base.
  • Won with every other damn demographic group. Trump won very conservative voters, moderate voters, voters without a college education, voters with a post-graduate degree(!), and with just about every other group of voters out there. Stunning.
  • Has gone from winning pluralities (24% in Iowa, 35% in NH, 33% in SC) to nearly an outright majority (46% in NV). This may be the scariest development of all. If Trump starts getting over 50%, it’s all over. Even if everyone but Rubio dropped out, Trump could win a 1-on-1.

So Trump won Nevada convincingly. And he did it in a way that demonstrates he’s even stronger, amongst nearly every demographic, than anyone anticipated.

On top of that, the Republican primary calendar has 2 dates rapidly approaching that are hugely important:

  • 3/1, aka Super Tuesday, when 11 states vote. Right now, polls show Trump significantly ahead in 8 states and competitive in the others. He’s only significantly behind in Ted Cruz’s home state of Texas (but delegates are awarded proportionally, so even a strong 2nd-place showing will still net Trump a lot of delegates).

  • 3/15, when states are finally allowed to allocate delegates winner-take-all. The Republican National Committee designed the calendar this way because you usually have a presumptive nominee by this point and they wanted him or her to be able to quickly lock up enough delegates to make it official. Well, this year that’s Trump and he is killing it in Ohio (Kasich’s home state) and Florida (Rubio’s home state). There will be a strong push for those two to drop out if they don’t win their own state (especially Kasich, who has only been competitive in 1 state so far).

Vox has a very good article on how Trump could essentially lock up the nomination by 3/15. You should really go read it now.

But if you still don’t believe me, go look at the betting markets. People who actually have money on this have Trump at 77%, Rubio at 19%, Cruz at 2%, and Kasich at 2%.

Finally, in the most shocking development of all, Trump’s starting to get endorsements from real politicians. First, Reps. Chris Collins (R-NY) and Duncan Hunter (R-CA) endorsed him. Still, they’re kinda fringe guys. But on Friday, Trump dropped a bombshell when he got sitting NJ Governor Chris Christie’s endorsement. That possibly opened the floodgates, because he soon got former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer’s endorsement as well as one more sitting politician. If you don’t know who, I strongly urge you to read this fantastic NYT article all the way to the bottom for a real kick-in-the-pants.

Why Rubio probably can’t win anymore

Rubio is now clearly the only viable Trump competitor left. But it’s probably too late, especially because the other competitors don’t look like they’re going anywhere soon:

  • Rubio’s “robot” debate gaffe hurt him significantly in the New Hampshire primary, getting 5th place when he was poised to get 2nd (just a 5% difference!). Instead, he let Kasich win amongst “establishment” candidates, giving him a credible reason to stay in the race. And now all indications suggest Kasich won’t drop out before 3/15, until Ohio votes.

  • Rubio’s closest competition is still Ted Cruz. But unless Cruz loses Texas (highly unlikely, based on current polls), he will probably stay in the race for a while too. He’s always been the best-funded candidate after Bush and has the best ground organization of anyone.

  • And you’d think Ben Carson would have dropped out by now, but his campaign is running on a shoestring budget with minimal staff so he’s happily chugging along and picking off ~5% in each state. Last year, he even took a month off the campaign to go on a book tour (right when he topped Trump in the polls too!), so his campaign may be more about publicity than the presidency.

So while Rubio might be able to win a 1-on-1 with Trump today, it doesn’t look like he’ll have that chance anytime soon. And by March 15th, 60% of all delegates will have been allocated. Even if every other candidate drops out then, Rubio would need to win 2/3 of the remaining delegates to catch up to Trump.

What happens next

The way I see it, the race plays out in one of three ways:

  1. Rubio fights back.

    I drafted most of this blog post before Thursday’s debate, when Rubio and Cruz finally went on the attack against Trump (even Jeb, Trump’s most direct target all year, used barely any of his $100 million to fund ads against him). Rubio got the best of it and then followed it up the next day by taking the fight to Trump the only way left—fighting insults with insults. And dare I say, it might work? I was entranced by his new “stump speech,” mocking Trump’s tweets1 and behavior at the debate. It’s Trump’s shtick, but from a candidate with substantive policy proposals to go with it. As Stuart Stevens noted, it’s not too late to stop Trump and this just might be the way.

    But for the comeback to work, Rubio will have to do 2 more things: frame the race as solely Trump-vs-Rubio (hoping voters increasingly ignore Cruz), and perform better-than-expected on Super Tuesday. Rubio’s competitive in Minnesota and Virginia and if he can actually pull off the win in both, he will rewrite this race yet again.

  2. Trump wins the nomination and the party tries to undermine him.

    If Trump wins the nomination, the GOP will be fractured. Some will support him, figuring he’s better than Hillary, but many won’t. They’ll figure it’s better to focus on 2020, when Hillary would be trying to win a 4th consecutive term for the Democrats, a rarity for any party in modern politics. In fact, Mitch McConnell is already telling Senate Republicans up for re-election this year that it’s OK for them to run ads against Trump.

    And if Trump wins the nomination, I think there’s a very good chance some Republican will run as a sacrificial candidate, splitting the GOP vote and essentially throwing the election. The problem for the RNC is that all 16 of this year’s other candidates are barred by the “pledge” they created last year to force every candidate to support the eventual Republican nominee. They thought it would force Trump to get behind a real Republican nominee, but now all the other candidates are going to have to get behind Trump!

    My money on such a sacrificial candidate is Mitt Romney. He’s out of politics now and wouldn’t be messing up a chance at another race down the line by “defecting” from the official Republican ticket. In addition, having him on the ballot would help protect downballot candidates, giving Republican voters a chance to still vote the “party line,” but not for Trump.

  3. Trump wins the nomination and the party gets behind him.

    Republicans know floating a 3rd-party bid would give the White House to Democrats. And when they already have the House, the Senate, the Supreme Court, and 2/3 of all state legislatures, maybe they’d rather take an unpredictable Republican than a Democrat as POTUS.2

    If Trump gets the full backing of the national party, including fundraising and endorsements, voters will notice and perhaps get in line. And as a dovish Republican who says same-sex marriage is the law of the land & Planned Parenthood does a lot of good, he might even pick off some independent- to-liberal voters.

    Look, when the GOP race started, no one thought Donald Trump had a chance. If he wins the nomination and has the backing of the party, I’m not counting ANYTHING out of the realm of possibility any more.

Of course, this is all assuming we don’t get a brokered convention or Trump third-party bid. The way this election has gone, who knows what’s going to happen next!

  1. Call me crazy, but I think Trump posted those multiple misspelled tweets intentionally. Did you notice he left them up for hours, even after thousands of retweets? I think he knew he had an underwhelming debate performance and, as he always does, tried to shift the media narrative by doing or saying something crazy. He only deleted them and posted correctly-spelled versions after Rubio mocked them relentlessly (and CNN started showing a split-screen of Rubio’s speech and Trump’s tweets). ↩︎

  2. The fact that Republicans control every other branch of government is also a very good reason why they DON’T need to support Trump as their candidate. Here’s hoping! ↩︎

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